Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Isolated for long from the mainstream international community Iran’s geo-strategic and geo-political importance is fully recognized by India. However this recognition has never been successfully transformed to a strategic relationship due to Iran’s strained relations with the international community at large, right through the pre and post-Cold War period. The world order then was in turbulence and Iran’s unpredictability, especially during the stewardship of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, prevented any clarity on its international position. In addition India was itself undergoing a transition in its strategic orientation and positioning. Its strategic independence has been mostly intact but influence of the US and the West, improved relationship with Israel, strengthened involvement with the GCC countries (especially Saudi Arabia) and a level of understandable uncertainty on Iran’s nuclear issue all contributed to the challenges of developing a stronger relationship.
Now that the 14 Jul 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is in place and Iran is emerging from isolation, albeit not a blitzkrieg breakout, it is time to view India’s lost opportunities in relation to Iran. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on what could be one of his most important foreign visits it is for the public to fully appreciate why this is so.
The emerging opportunity for both India and Iran was best summed up by Gholamreza Ansari, Iran’s Ambassador to India, in a seminar at New Delhi. He stated “In my three years as the Ambassador of Iran, I have often been advised to be patient on big India-Iran projects. Does India want to wait for centuries before capturing the right opportunities?” Thus Prime Minister Modi’s visit comes not a day too soon and is one under intense scrutiny by different players for what it is expected to deliver. It is being virtually treated as ‘barometer visit’ in the post sanctions period.
Iran’s geo-strategic importance for India stems from the viability it offers for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, something denied to it by Pakistan for obvious reasons. A warm India – Iran relationship would deny the possibility of any exploitation by Pakistan in its enduring search for ‘strategic depth’, a flawed idea as it is. India, however, now has the clout and position as an international player where its relationship would no longer be viewed through the Pakistani prism.
Mr Modi’s visit should apparently be focused on three areas. First is the re-establishment of politico-diplomatic warmth missing for so long despite the potential always being there. Second the economic payoffs, particularly related to energy. Third the accessibility aspects and the potential that they offer. Chah Bhar port and a deal for its development and accessibility through it is likely to be the flagship deal of the visit. There is a fourth issue which needs careful meandering and that relates to Israel.
Iran has watched from the sidelines as India developed its relationship with the Arab world. It always perceived India being close to Iraq under Saddam Hussain. The influx to the GCC countriesof a huge Indian diaspora helped expand the mutuality of the relationship with the Arabs. Energy remained one of the clinching issues of the links with the Middle East. While a similar relationship on the basis of energy related interests also existed with Iran the employment opportunities offered by the GCC countries, and the role of soft power ensured a more enduring and lucrative relationship with these countries.
There is no doubt that the tentativeness of India-Iran relations and the lack of Indian initiatives too was partially due to the emerging Indo-US relationship in the post-Cold war period. India, while maintaining its strategic independence was drawing closer to the US due to its need of technology, development of its economy and other strategic reasons. The same applied to Israel with whom a very strong relationship developed. The US-Israel equation was largely responsible for applying controls on Iran. Today India has a developing strategic relationship with the US and is an important pole in the US strategy for containing China. With Israel the relationship remains strong. After the signing of JCPOA, an opportunity for India has emerged with regard to Iran. It is not certain how the US and Israel view this.
India’s voracious appetite for energy after the opening of its economy in 1991 forced it to increase the intake of oil from Iran. Although it went up to 16-18 percent of the total oil imports the full potential was not exploited despite obvious advantages. These advantages were the short distance for transportation, and the quality of crude being suited to Indian refineries. The uncertainty of flow during the Iran Iraq war of the Eighties and the post revolution period placed dampeners on the reliability of supplies thus also contributing to the low volumes.
Indian companies have invested in the exploration of undeveloped areas in the energy sector. Close to $5 billion is likely to be spent in the future in the development of the Farzad B gas fields and other stakes. This process which slowed down due to sanctions, negotiations of the nuclear deal and the processing problems of payments, is likely to receive a major impetus with PM Modi’s visit. The $6 billion oil bill which is still to be paid by India due to processing constraints will hopefully also be resolved very soon.
It is geo-politics which need quicker resolution. A visit at the level of the Prime Minister goes beyond just specifics. There is tight rope walking to do. India definitely needs Israel for the unencumbered supply of crucial military hardware and technology. No doubt Mr Modi will demonstrate India’s strategic independence to pursue relationships on the basis of its national interests but will he also go a few steps beyond to act as a mediator?The relationship between Iran and Israel is dangerous but no effort at mediation has ever been made. An opportunity beckons for India.
Iran in the post Ahmadinejad period is much more amenable and restrained. It is clear that there is hardly another important country with which Iran can have a warmer relationship than with India. If India can promote a ‘Sadat Moment’ for Iran and Israel it can change the dynamics of the Middle East which will also help in the defeat of the Islamic State (Daesh) The ‘Sadat Moment’ referred here alludes to the sudden change of heart that President Anwar Sadat had in 1978 which led to the Camp David peace process and ultimate rapprochement between Egypt and Israel; it altered equations for the better in the Middle East.
Coming to the geo-strategic element, a few things about Chah Bahar will establish the right strategic picture. It is in competition with the bigger and richer Bandar Abbas. It is closer by geographic proximity to Afghanistan for India’s dream access to West Afghanistan and to Central Asia. Iran will not be easy to negotiate with and it will extract its advantage from any such deal. The presence of Afghanistan as a part of this upcoming deal will throw up greater interest in international circles. It will be an initiative in favor of the Afghan Government and its quest for improvement of its economy and overall stability. Mr Modi’s inking of a deal on Chah Bahar will of course be a huge positive but the implementation is not going to be easy. Financially, the project which could be a game changer requires a Public Private Partnership (PPP) and more consortiums to develop the infrastructure inland. Iran may not be in a position to financially invest in this, notwithstanding the $100 billion which was frozen in the US banks and will be released in due course. Chah Bahar is a part of the restive Sistan Baluchistan area of Iran where a low level insurgency has been existent for fairly long.
Pursuance of the $7 billion Iran-Pakistan-India oil pipeline project is unlikely. Besides that India has now displayed its reluctance to continue with this knowing fully well that Pakistan’s role in this will be always suspect.
If there is anything in which a strong bond is evident it is the enduring Shia Islamic culture and faith in India. India’s Shias subscribe both to the Qum and Najaf schools of Islamic learning, the latter being in Iraq and the former in Iran. There is a great sense of pride in the Shia culture of Awadh with which Iran has historic ties.
Daeshremains a source of worry for both Iran and India. Iran will sit content that India will back all anti Daesh moves but it needs to convince India that it will work towards finding greater stability in Afghanistan and support India’s presence there. An India-Iran-Russia congruence will effectively block the Pakistan-Saudi axis, with China preferring to remain outside.
So, all eyes are on Mr Modi’s visit which comes after the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Tehran and President Rouhani to Islamabad. The Iranian leadership and people are clearly in need of initiatives of bringing them back as players within the international community. Iran can perhaps find no other country better suited for this than India and its people.
(The writer is a former GOC of the Chinar Corps and now a part of two major Delhi think tanks, Vivekanand International Foundation and Delhi Policy Group)
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