Dr. D.K. Giri
West Asia is on fire, Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil sells at $120, Rupee is at record low and India’s forex reserves are fast depleting. Above all, the Prime Minister issues an advisory at home to cut on fuel consumption and embrace austerity. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on a five-nation tour from 15-20 May. Obviously, the purpose could not be other than exploring energy and technology.
Let us scan the agenda on the table and possibilities accruing out of this visit. Modi intends to land are UAE, The Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy. The first port of call on the 15 May is UAE, which is an energy life-line stop. He is scheduled to meet the President, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Why is Modi stopping over at UAE while visiting four countries in Europe? The context is that UAE has just exited OPEC plus. The turmoil persists around the Strait of Hormuz and India imports 60 per cent of its oil via Gulf. Abu Dhabi is becoming India’s new Riyadh as Saudi Arabia becomes unpredictable, for instance, the mutual defence treaty with Pakistan while deriding Islamabad in talks with India.
The expected deliverables from UAE could be several MoUs as indicated by Ministry of External Affairs. The MoUs will include LPG cooperation, strategic petroleum reserves, fuel supply chain guarantees and IMEC fast-tracking; Italy wants its ports as ‘Gateway to Europe’. Modi will seek to build on New Delhi’s good relations with Abu Dhabi leveraging 4.5 million Indians in UAE, and India’s close partnership with UAE in strategic grouping like I2U2.
The second stop is the Netherlands between May 15-17. Here the pitch consists of semi-conductors and water diplomacy. Modi would meet his counterpart, the Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jettel, King Willen-Alexander and Queen Maxima. Currently, the Netherlands is India’s fourth largest investor at $55.6m cumulative FDI. The bilateral trade stands at $27.8b. New Delhi is expecting to cut deals on green hydrogen, semi-conductors, water and defence. Interestingly, from tulips to chips – Dutch are now India’s gateway to ASML – Advanced Semi-conductor Materials Lithography, a world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making Lithography machines. ASML is viewed as the crown jewel of European tech. It is also a gateway to Europe’s deep teck.
From 17-18, Modi will be in Stockholm, Sweden. This is his second visit to the country after 2018. He is scheduled to meet his counterpart PM Ulf Kristersson. The expected engagement in Stockholm includes a European Round Table for Industry with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, discussion on AI, green transition and resilient supply chains. In fact, Stockholm is where India-EU FTA hits the factory floor. Following the FTA, Europe wants Indian market as India would like Swedish clean-tech.
Next stop is Norway between 18 to 19 May. Norway is Arctic and has blue economy. This visit is historic as it happens after 43 years by any head of Govt of India. Modi will meet his counterpart of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre and King Harald V. Modi will participate in third India-Nordic Summit on May 19. Nordic Union consists of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. The discussion expected will include green hydrogen, blue economy, defence, space, and India-EFTA Trade Pact operational since October 2025. The point to note is that Oslo is India’s Arctic entry. The other common interests include climate, critical minerals and keeping China out of SVALBARD, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, midway between mainland Norway and North Pole, an exotic Northernmost part of the world with a small human habitation.
The last leg of the tour is Italy between May 19-20. Here the discussion will be focused on IMEC plus defence collaboration. Modi will meet Prime Minister Georgia Meloni. New Delhi and Rome have signed a Joint Strategic Action Plan, 2025-2029. Rome wants Italian ports to be the final point for IMEC’s entry to Europe. Defence deals with Italy appear to be high on the agenda after the Italian Defence Minister’s visit to Delhi just recently. To quote the famous proverb, ‘Rome was not built in a day’, but IMEC may be built sooner. From the point of view of geo-politics, Italy needs India to balance China in Mediterranean.
Perhaps we can discern three big themes that would inform and inspire this trip. One the search for energy security which equals to national security doctrine in many countries. In 1973, India learnt that oil shocks topple governments. In 2026, Modi is flying about 25 hours in five days to make sure that it does not happen again. The second theme is the need for technology following India-EU FTA finalised in January 2026. Modi would be asking Netherlands for semi-conductors/ASML access; from Sweden and Norway, green technology, AI, blue economy and from Italy defence technology.
Given India’s foreign policy strategy, New Delhi will not pick between US chips and Chinese solar. It seems to be building a third stack – Dutch machines, Swedish green, Norwegian hydrogen and Italian ports. The third theme is drawn from the premise that Diaspora plus disruption calls for diplomacy. For instance, 4.5 million Indians are in UAE, Norwegian pension fund operates in India. As I wrote in this column last week, when Delhi’s political wrangles influence Kolkata’s votes, Modi knows Abu Dhabi’s oil becomes Mumbai’s inflation. So these treaties indicate that foreign policy is conducted for domestic peace.
Let us recall that Churchill flew to Tehran in 1943 during the Second World War. Crisis diplomacy cannot be successful through phone or Zoom calls. It has to be executed by visits and talks across the table. Modi’s five-day visit could bring some relief for 1.5b people threatened by crude oil at $120. Modi is doing that through this trip by fixing fuel pipelines, chip partnerships and a new grammar of strategic autonomy. Modern India should rise by sea-lanes, supply chains and strategic friendship. Will Modi lay the foundation for a new India through this five-nation tour?
In the international politics, an axiom goes, ‘foreign policy is a reflection of the domestic compulsions, imperatives and aspirations’. Just before the trip, Modi has dropped enough hints about the challenges the country will be facing mainly in energy consumption. The opposition parties are demanding an update on India’s economy. Modi is flying out to the five countries to explore solutions to address the challenges. The country sincerely hopes that he succeeds. We will return in this column a week later to assess the outcomes. —INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
14 May 2026
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