Harsha Kakar
Elections have concluded, and the nation has given Modi another mandate, far greater than what he obtained in 2014. Clearly, there is immense faith and trust in all his actions and decisions, including in international relations. During electioneering, Modi concentrated on the surgical strikes and his firm handling of Pakistan.
He built a feeling of nationalism, seeking to break existing shackles of religion and caste in voting,and succeeded. He displayed that what previous governments failed to do, he had done, responding firmly to Pak’s misadventures. He trusted the armed forces to convey the right message to Pak, create a fear of Indian retaliation and shared the success of the operations with the nation, enhancing respect for the military. It may be dubbed as exploitation, but more important was conveying that the armed forces will hit back hard, if trusted and permitted.
Imran and his Deep State were aware of the impact of Indian responses, both post Uri and Pulwama, despite hiding the truth from their public. They knew they had limited choices as any further escalation would be beyond their capability to control. They are also aware of Indian influence around the globe which is pushing for them to be Blacklisted at the plenary meeting of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) due in the US next month. The Pak army chief, General Bajwa, and his puppet Prime Minister, Imran Khan,know that while his nation faces its worst financial crises in decades, they cannot let tensions with India continue.
In all probability, Modi would now concentrate on developing Indian military power, while Pak would be constrained from doing so by restrictions and close monitoring from IMF. Thus, the conventional gap would increase, nuclear capability being in existence only as a deterrent for ensuring the integrity of Pak or for boasting to its own population. Its employment myth has been busted.
With this backdrop, Imran during the Indian campaigning regularly sent forth messages of talks post the formation of a new government. He had stated that in case the BJP comes back to power, there are better chances of dialogue. Imran called PM Modi over the weekend and ‘expressed his desire to work for peace’.
Newspaper reports initially stated that Pak was seeking to appoint another retired army officer as the National Security Advisor (NSA) to take talks forward and open backdoor diplomacy, which it subsequently denied. Qureshi, the Pak foreign minister has mentioned the same in every speech he has made, including in the recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting of foreign ministers and in an Iftar dinner over the weekend.
Simultaneously, Pak is desperate to display to its own people that it is not seeking dialogue from a position of weakness, but one of equality. Therefore, there were few simultaneous actions undertaken by them. The first was to test fire their nuclear capable missile, Shaheen II,on the day when the results were being announced, the second was to use its foreign office spokesperson to warn India against changing the status of J and K and finally was Qureshi stating continued support to the Kashmir terrorism. All were more for domestic consumption rather than to send forth a message to India.
Pak is aware that with Modi in the chair they could face further international isolation and financial drubbing, unless they pacify India. Post Balakote, the world supported India and pressurized China to drop its objections to Masood Azar being nominated as a global terrorist. Every member of the security council was in touch with India, while Pak was not even consulted.
Now it is clearly the turn of Pak to commence wooing India. Modi has too strong a mandate and with India being a democracy, there is no reason for him to fear removal, the opposite being the case with Imran. Modi won his term based on his response to Pak misadventures. He cannot afford to bend backwards to accommodate Pak requests, unless they are genuine and transparent.
Post Balakote, India was prepared to escalate, a fear which forced Pak to continue closure of its airspace till the declaration of the election results. This indicates that fear continues to persist within the Pak hierarchy. Even one terrorist action, which could cause national outrage in India has the possibility of spilling out of control. It may or may not have been designed and planned in Pak but even if it has Pak links, there would be a retaliation.
Within Kashmir, terrorism is well under control, the situation improving by the day. Infiltration is down and locally recruited terrorists being eliminated daily. Pak is aware that any attempt beyond the boundaries of the valley could be disastrous and result in an immediate retaliation.
Hence, Pak would now have to sit back and hope that the seeds of discontent sowed within Kashmir, results in increased local militancy, rather than them attempting to push trained militants across. This has also begun failing. As a first step, it has put brakes on its free-flowing terrorist group leaders. There are reports, flowing from the US, that over 300 LeT militants are now operating in Afghanistan in support of the Taliban, indicating that Pak is slowly changing track.
To bring India to the discussion table, Pak would need to act, indicate a sense of sincerity and convince India it seeks peace. It is India which holds the cards while Pak facing international scrutiny for all its actions. India can, with its international standing and power, ignore Pak and move ahead.
India does not need Pak as much as Pak needs India. Imran and his deep state are aware of the true picture. The writing is on the wall. If you want talks and avoid being insulted in organizations like the FATF, convince India of your desire for peace. You fail, even the IMF loan may not flow, and the nation would only slide into anarchy, which is undesirable. Display your sincerity. Indian leaders cannot be fooled by just statements and threats.
India is in no hurry. The longer Pak takes to act, the closer is the FATF plenary and the longer is the wait for the IMF loan. The Indian leadership is patient. It is prepared for talks from a position of strength, not one of equals or weakness. Imran and Bajwa, the ball is in your court.
(The author is Major General (retd)
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