Brij Bhardwaj
On completion of two years of its second term in power at Centre BJP should be celebrating and listing its achievemments. But in the current scenario when the country is facing a serious crisis because of second wave of Corona, which has proved more deadly when compared to first, there is a mood of caution and determination to meet the challenge. Situation is improving with number of Corona cases going down in Mumbai and Delhi but situation continues to be grim in Southern States as well as in North.
This has come at a time when attention has been shifted from South and East where elections were held for State Assemblies to North.. BJP’s attempt to replace Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal has not worked but it has emerged as a serious challenge to her. This is remarkable as BJP had no presence in West Bengal in last Assembly poll. Current poll also saw Congress and Left parties being eliminated from the scene.as serious players.
In Assam, BJP came to power and Congress’ attempt to pose a challenge by tying up with forces seeking to divide State on communal lines has not worked. In South, BJP never had any presence and recent attempts also have not worked but its efforts to build a base continue. It’s disadvantage is that it is identified as a party of Hindi heartland .The tie up with AIDMK in Tamil Nadu also did not work.
BJP can also draw comfort from the fact that Congress, another national party, suffered major setbacks, drawing zero in West Bengal, defeat in Assam and failure to win Kerala, which in the past used to deny second term to any party saw Left winning with huge margin. As such BJP will be going into battle for North with distinct advantage as it has a well-oiled election machine and ample resources.. There has been talk of opposition parties joining hands to fight BJP but there is no progress on ground.
Major battle will be in Uttar Pradesh where Samajwadi Party will offer challenge and Bahujan Samaj Party which has lost lot of ground will work as a spoiler. Efforts by the Congress Party to put its house in order have not worked so far and. Priyanka Vadra incharge of Congress in U.P. has not shifted her base of operation on ground so far.Congress has some appeal but no organisation on ground to fight elections.
The disadvantage for BJP will be current handling of Corona epidemic in the State . The lack of medicines and hospitals will hurt. The Government in UP woke up to the challenge late and medical facilities in the State were inadequate as a result there was mismanagement. Ministers in U.P cabinet had to go to other states for treatment . Floating bodies in Ganga and Yamuna were evidence of lack of care for patients who were denied treatment in hospitals.
There is, however, hope that situation will improve in U.P with guidance from Centre and elections to State Assembly are one year away. Unlike in South and East challenge for BJP in States of Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan Chhattisgarh and Punjab will be from Congress which remain headless and divided. Unless some dramatic changes happen advantage will remain with BJP.
There is also talk of third wave of the Corona virus. How much damage it will do and how it is tackled will have impact on the outcome of elections.
There is no doubt that preprations for elections will start soon. The ongoing farmers’ agitation has made an impact in Punjab, Haryana and Western U.P . Resolution or continuation of the farmers’ agitation will also have an impact on the elections in these States. BJP is without an ally like Akali Dal in Punjab, while in Haryana it has to improve its organisation as it had narrow escape last time and had to rely on regional party to build a majority.
Rajasthan also needs a fresh look as BJP is a divided house. One can say a lot will happen in the next few months and sooner rather than later BJP leaders will start moving in North which gave them initial push .Retaining States where it has majority and dislodging Congress from Punjab and Rajasthan will be challenge. In U.P it has to defend its record of governance and not to seek a change as it did in West Bengal.At present all bets are off about the outcome which is one year away.
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