New Chapter in Indo-Pak ties?

Dr D K Giri
India ought to be preparing to deal with Pakistan’s new Prime Minister Imran Khan, not a run-off-the-mill politician without much political grounding or grooming, but hugely popular in his country and abroad as a successful cricketer. After all, to the surprise of many observers, he did beat his main rivals Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League to the goal post of Wazir-e-Azam.
In its foreign policy, New Delhi has the most sensitive and tenuous relation with Islamabad since last 71 years, when both countries were partitioned in much violence and bloodshed. The other country is Afghanistan, which is steeped in a fratricidal war for political control. Pakistan’s role again is critical for restoration and re-building of Afghanistan.
India’s relation with Pakistan, the nature, degree and intensity etc have tremendous impact on our domestic politics and policies. The only other parallel is perhaps the British membership of European Union. Political parties are horizontally, badly divided over our approach to Pakistan. Even the people are divided across the country in their reactions to developments in India-Pakistan relations.
Take for instance, the ‘spontaneous’, a-spur-of-the-moment hug Navjot Singh Sidhu had with Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Bajwa. The spokespersons of the ruling party cried hoarse calling it an anti-national gesture, embracing a person responsible for spilling so much of Indian blood. Yet, others felt that it symbolised a shift in India-Pak relations, from violence, war, terrorism, to dialogue, diplomacy and peace-building. Sidhu, the Punjab Minister, a former cricketer like Imran, is known for his outspoken and unusual nature. He pleaded that it was really a spontaneous act as the General agreed to open up the routes for religious visitors despite the heavy tensions in relations between the two countries.
It was perhaps like Rahul Gandhi hugging Prime Minister Modi, which became a toast for media discussion. Let me add, from a personal experience that, any Indian may be blown off his feet by the warmth, hospitality and at-home feelings in Pakistan. It is really ironical that India and Pakistan inter-governmentally are daggers drawn, but the people-to-people relations are so cordial and warm, more so when they meet in a third country.
Against the back drop of Indo-Pak story, what can we expect from the new Prime Minister? Before we go on to analyse and pontificate on Imran’s India policy, I would like to throw a caveat here – that is, in public life, personal traits and private lives of leaders determine their policies. I am banking on Imran’s personality – unpredictable, impetuous and unusual. Although he is alleged to be under the shadow of the all-powerful Pakistan army, he can surprise himself and his critics by doing the unthinkable.
Think of his first marriage to Jemima Gold Smith, 24 years junior to him, then to his wife Rehman Khan, and his third wife, his spiritual guru, 26 years younger than him. The other is the current French President who married his teacher Brigitte, 24 years his senior. Such people are capable of breaking stereotypes. So it is not unrealistic to expect them to break new-grounds in their policies as well. That is my hope-an optimism on Imran’s surprise-springing personality.
Scanning his pronouncements on world politics, especially on India, his narratives have so far been anti-war, anti-aggression, pro-peace and pro-dialogue. He even urged a dialogue with Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, earning for himself the epithet of ‘Taliban Khan’. His detractors would say that he was supportive of Taliban, their militant ideology, but he has been consistent on his pleas for dialogue.
Again, there seem to be perspectives on Imran’s policy towards India. One, Indo-Pak ties are too complicated, and better left to the hands of the Army and military intelligences. The ISI and their army controllers will demand that uninterrupted space from the civilian head of the government as the reciprocal price for propping him up to the exalted position of the Prime Minister.
Few leaders have been able to break the stranglehold of the army over the civilian government in Pakistan. Mian nawaz Sharif tried to end the hegemony of the Army over politics, or at least have at-par relations, but failed, became a victim of one political-military coup, and another judicial coup; and now confined in jail. Imran Khan will, therefore be, better advised to let army conduct India relations, as he attends the other issues. He may arrange this quid-pro-quo between his office and the army, much to the dismay of Indian diplomatic establishment.
The other perspective could be Imran, as his wont would steer his own course and rebuild their relations with India, as much of Pakistan’s stability and viability depends on its good relations with India. If his victory speech of 26 July is any indication, Imran seems to be veering towards the latter approach. He said, “If Hindustan takes one step, Pakistan will take two in rebuilding ties.” Unless we discard this as rhetoric, it means a lot for the future of India-Pak bilateralism.
He brought in cultural exchange, the most exciting cricket match between the two countries, religious tourism etc. which generate emotions, goodwill and become powerful determinant for a healthy bilateral relations. Let us appreciate that unlike any other Prime Minister before, Imran, the PM, has tweeted commiserating the colossal loss of life and property in Kerala due to floods and has promised any assistance Pakistan could offer.
Understandably, all countries now know that ‘money talks’ and are focusing on building their economic strengths. Imran realises the dire economic state of his country. They will have to knock at the doors of international monetary organisations for loans etc., on economic ties with India, he made a significant point, “If we want to reduce poverty in the region, which should be the priority of any government. We should improve our trade ties. The more we do commerce, better for both countries.”
On Kashmir, he had said during his campaign, that India should stop violence in the Valley, and UN Security Council should broker peace through its resolutions etc. New Delhi was concerned that Imran built part of his campaign platform on much of anti-India rhetoric. Well, so did the current Nepal Prime Minister. During elections, leaders do whip up nationalist sentiments. Even our politicians use anti-Pakistan vocabulary. All that should be taken with a pinch of salt during election times.
The strategic point from the perspective of dialogue is, if Imran is asking India to stop violence, which is misinterpreted as India has its right to defend and protect its security, then terrorism of all kinds should stop. ‘There is no good or bad terrorism’ as Imran once classified. Cross-border terrorism has to stop before any dialogue begins. One could hold on to Imran’s position of dialogue sans violence.
Finally, New Delhi must realise that it made a diplomatic faux pas by condemning the election in Pakistan as a rigged one. The nature of elections there was an internal matter of Pakistan. One remembers a similar slip by South Block when it welcomed the counter revolution against the democratically elected government of Boris Yeltsin in Russia. The counter attack fizzled out in no time, leaving Indian diplomacy red-faced. So, it was not a nice way to welcome another Prime Minister by insinuating that his elections were rigged. We ought to be more careful. (INFA)

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