Raju Vernekar
Even as we are set to celebrate 69 th Republic Day in presence of nearly 10 ASEAN leaders as part of our “Act East” policy, a continuing stand off over “Doklam”, with Chinese army going ahead and setting up its base in the Himalayas is a cause of concern.
It is for the first time in the history, several heads from foreign countries, will be attending the R day celebrations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, playing host to these ten countries can only signal a better relationship with the East, something that has been hovering in the background since the 1980s.
Needless to say that the parts of Delhi will be in a lockdown since the leaders will probably bring with them their own security contingents and India will have to ensure the safety of not just the VIPs but the capital itself.
The list of VVIPs includes: the Sultan Of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah, Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte Of Philippines, the President Of Indonesia Joko Widodo,
Prime Minister Of Malaysia Najib Razak, Prime Minister Of Vietnam Nguyen Xuân Phúc, President of Singapore Halima Yacob, President of Myanmar Htin Kyaw, Prime Minister of Thailand Prayuth Chan-Ocha and Prime Minister of Laos Thongloun Sisoulith.
Besides flexing India’s military muscle, Modi is expected to impress upon these ten entities the need to appreciate India as the bulwark against Chinese adventurism and to make the Indo-ASEAN entity more viable in commercial terms. At the same time, these ten nations could be a strong support for India’s ongoing bid for a seat in the UN Security Council.
While China has asserted that it will build infrastructure in Doklam, there is a little hope of reconciliation with Pakistan which has continued with cease fire violations. Under the circumstances, a mega assemblage of 10 ASEAN leaders is going to be big achievement for India.
In view of the Lok Sabha elections next year, the NDA Government is expected to highlight its “achievements” through a separate float, which will be one of the 14 floats to be displayed by different states and union territories. On the Republic Day, it is equally important to take stock of situation related to different aspects of economy and social conditions prevailing in the country.
GDP
Going by Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement, country’s economy slowed down in 2016-17, with the gross domestic product (GDP) declining from 8 per cent in 2015-16 to 7.1 per cent. The slower economic growth reflects lower growth in the industry and the services sectors. The stressed balance sheets of the corporate sector and lower credit growth in industry sector are some of the reasons given by the government for the low growth rate in 2016-17. But the measures such as demonetisation and lack of uniformity in implementation of GST has certainly contributed to the economic slowdown. The district cooperative banks are in bad shape even today in several states including Maharashtra.
FDI
According to Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the total FDI investments in India during April-September 2017 stood at US$ 33.75 billion, indicating that Government’s effort to improve ease of doing business and relaxation in FDI norms is yielding results. Japan, Singapore, Dubai, USA, France, China, Nepal, Malaysia and Canada are some of the nations who have invested in different sectors, including banking, consumer goods, cell phone manufacture etc.
Indian Rupee
The Indian Rupee recently became weak by 2.66 per cent against US Dollar from earlier 66.40 to 68.17 INR per unit. The rupee came under pressure as trade deficit widened to three-year high at USD 14.88 billion in December. It has become weaker also against some currencies including British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar. But the solace is the rupee has become stronger than Euro, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Singapore Dollar and Japanese Yen.
Jan Dhan
As per Prime Minister’s recent announcement, 30 crore families have been linked to Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) in the last three years and Rs. 65,000 crore have been deposited in their accounts. The attempt to bring the poor into the mainstream of national economy to ensure them financial security is good, but the real impact of this effort is yet to be seen.
Petrol
The unstable prices of petrol and diesel are having cascading effect on prices of essential commodities. Petrol prices across Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai were recently hiked by 11-13 paise per litre, while diesel prices increased by 18-19 paise per litre. Domestic fuel prices are mostly determined by global crude prices and the dollar-rupee exchange rate. A weaker dollar and expectations of stronger global economic growth has also pushed oil prices higher. There is no doubt that these fluctuating prices will continue to affect the economy.
Health
India’s public health care sector has been ailing for decades. Every year, around 60 million people become impoverished through paying health-care bills in India. Worse, more than a fifth of people do not seek health care, despite being unwell, because of their inability to pay for it. The nutrition status has been dismal and is one of the causes of child mortality and morbidity. As per the global hunger index (by IFPRI), India ranks 78th among 118 developing countries (with 15 per cent of our population being undernourished, about 15 per cent under-5 children ‘wasted’, the share of children who are `stunted’ is a staggering 39 per cent and the under-5 mortality rate is 4.8 per cent in India.
India’s ratio of 7 doctors and 1.5 nurses per 1,000 people is dramatically lower than the standard formulated by WHO. As per National Health Policy 2017, public investment in health care has to be raised to 5 per cent of the GDP to make a predictable, efficient, patient-centric, affordable and effective health care system.
The NHP has also suggested : increase in utilization of public health facilities by 50 per cent from current levels by 2025, over 90 per cent of the newborn should be fully immunized by one year of age by 2025, there should be relative reduction in the prevalence of current tobacco use by 15 per cent by 2020 and 30 per cent by 2025. Similarly there should be reduction of 40 per cent in the prevalence of stunting of under-five children by 2025. Access to safe water and sanitation to all by 2020 (Swachh Bharat Mission) and reduction of occupational injury by half from current levels of 334 per lakh agricultural workers by 2020 are other suggestions of NHP.
Food grains
The agriculture sector is all set to repeat the last year’ record food grain production at over 275 million tonnes in 2017-18 on good rains but farmers’ woes may continue if prices crash below the support price. Some states, including Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, have announced around Rs 90,000-crore farm loan waivers to save their farmers who have been reeling under the stress of low prices. However a “crisis is brewing” in agriculture as farmers income has been hit badly in last two years despite bumper crops. The Government has claimed that efforts are on to reduce the cost of production and double farmers’ income by 2022 by promoting integrated farming in a big way. They are also being encouraged not to just depend on one or two crops, but to go for allied farm activities like poultry, bee keeping, fishery and piggery etc.
Literacy
While the Central Government plans to ensure 100 per cent literacy by the years 2022, the Indian literacy rate has grown to 74 percent (2011) from 12 per cent at the end of British rule in 1947. But this level is below the world average literacy rate of 84 per cent. Despite government programmes, the literacy rate has increased only “sluggishly”. An old 1990 study had estimated that it would take until 2060 for India to achieve universal literacy at then-current rate of progress.
Kerala with 93.91 per cent literacy rate is at the top, Lakshadweep and Mizoram are at second and third position with 92.28 per cent and 91.58 per cent literacy rate respectively. Bihar with 63.08 per cent literacy rate is the last in terms of literacy rate in India. Whereas Rajasthan has the lowest female literacy rate.
Electrification
Union power ministry recently claimed that out of 8,452 unelectrified villages, over 13,000 villages were electrified under Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojna (DDUGJY) and all the remaining 4,481 un-electrified villages will be electrified by 1st May, 2018. But certainly quite a few tribal pockets in the country are still to be electrified. Ironically these pockets exist even in progressive state like Maharashtra.
Space Technology
In these developments, India’s progress is space technology certainly needs commendation. Our space program received one more feather in its cap when a nuclear capable surface-to-surface ballistic missile Agni-5 – the most advanced missile in the Agni series with a strike range of over 5000 kms, was recently test fired from a test range off Odisha coast. The user associate test-flight of the missile has further boosted indigenous missile capabilities and deterrence strength of the country.
Amid all, one thing is certain that despite announcement of a host of schemes, finally market forces control the prices of essential commodities and there is a wide gap between retail and wholesale prices. For example the retail prices of onions and tomatoes have stayed above Rs. 40-50 a kg in many parts of the country over the past several weeks, with tomatoes retailing above Rs.60 a kg in many markets. Despite “uniform” 5 per cent GST, hoteliers have continued to hike the base price of food compared to pre-GST rates, negating the impact of reduction in GST. The prices of medicines have also not come down. It is only when the Government is able to control the prices of good and commodities, on which common men depend, one can expect “Achhe din”.
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