Col J P Singh
Distant boom of the guns echo in J&K 24X7. Videos of Pak posts being destroyed by Rockets are indicator of massive retaliation. The extensive land border with Pakistan in J&K is in a war like situation with both sides pounding each other’s forward defensive positions with massive firepower and immense fury. Even the villages are not spared. I pity the people living near the inflammatory border. Continuous firing and retaliatory pounding is killing and deafening. It must end soon because life of the people living on the border needs to be seen to be believed no matter it is alike on the other side. Having served on the LoC twice, three years each time, I sympathise with them. Earlier ceasefire violations were happening because of trigger happy local commanders on both sides. Kill was not the motive. Destruction and death is the motive now. Many innocent lives are being lost in the firing. Schools are closed. Students are suffering. Life in the border areas revolves around live stock. Loss of a cattle is as tragic as loss of life. The biggest challenge emerging before the state is the safety of people and the live-stock.
Border with Pakistan, by and large, has been inflammatory. ‘K’ issue is cause of current fury and past four wars. In the 1st war we lost half of J&K State Forces, its Chief, half of its territory, Governor of Gilgit-Baltistan taken prisoner and the ruler exiled. In the 2nd war we lost a great prime minister and gave away Hajipir. In the 3rd war we gave away Chhamb and 93,000 prisoners for nothing. In the fourth war we lost 523 young military commanders and had thousands maimed. What have we gained? Since partition peace has eluded the sub-continent which many security experts attribute to Kashmir. There are fervent attempts internally and externally to strengthen insurgency in Kashmir valley and further extend the arc to Jammu and Ladakh and create communal rift by targeting minority ethnic groups. The attempt is succeeding. Exodus of Pandits from the valley substantiates that. For supporting militancy in Kashmir, lot of Hawala money is coming from Arab countries. Some separatist leaders are under NIA scrutiny for money laundering whereas many are being spared.
Off late, Pakistan and China have become bosom friends. Both dovetail their internal and external threat strategies to target India and create an alarming situation on the borders. (statement of senior PDP minister about China spreading its fangs in Kashmir imbroglio refers). It is clear that extensive border with Pakistan is worrisome. ‘It is one of the most dangerous borders in the world’, appeared in an article in European Foreign Policy Private Blog Networks in 2011. Former US president Bill Clinton called the region, in particular the LoC, as one of the most dangerous places in the world. LoC is also considered as nuclear flash point of the sub-continent. While Pakistan is under tremendous pressure of US to stop harboring and exporting terror, it is getting the necessary boost from China. Therefore the current booming of guns is a cause of concern.
There are tensions on the other borders as well. India has extensive land borders extending from Afghanistan in the Northwest to Myanmar in the Southeast. India shares 106 kms border with Afghanistan, 3323 kms with Pakistan, 3380 kms with China, 1690 kms with Nepal, 605 kms with Bhutan, 4053 kms with Bangladesh and 3350 kms with Myanmar. All these borders are prone to illegal immigration and trade of weapons, narcotics, contrabands and counterfeit currency. Over the border dispute, India and China fought the ignominious war of 1962 and a near war over Doklam in the recent past. China considers India as its economic and military rival in the regional leadership race. China considers Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh as its territories. It is also well known that China is supporting all the insurgencies in the Northeast and Maoist and Naxal insurgencies in India. To encircle India, China has established a ‘string of pearls’ around India. The ‘string of pearls’ is a geopolitical, commercial, military and strategic encirclement of India. The pearls of the string start from Southern Chinese Sea Port to Kyun Port of Myanmar to Chittagong in Bangladesh to Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan to Maldives. It is complemented by CPEC, One Road-One Belt and growing relationship with our neighbors.
Ramifications of Chinese influence on our neighbors, particularly over Pakistan, has significant implications for India.
Pakistan is illegally occupying nearly half of J&K. It earlier ceded large chunk of illegally held area of Aksai Chin to China. Currently it is in the process of handing over Gilgit-Baltistan to China for the CPEC. Can we stop it? No. Can we attack Pakistan? No; because it is a nuclear armed enemy. Once Gilgit-Baltistan goes to China, it would mean losing J&K slice by slice. Thus the challenges of Western border are many fold. Pakistan was involved in Khalistan movement in Punjab. Hence both Pakistan and China have become cancerous for India. Army is not fully equipped to fight a proxy war. India is not ready to risk a conventional war for which the army is prepared. India stands at the cross-roads.
Pakistan is the only country to have been created in the name of Islam consequent to partition of India. Its political history since birth has been characterised by periods of military rule, political instability, ethnic conflicts and conflicts with India. Instability suits Pak Army. Since partition, Pakistan has waged wars, ostensibly to complete its ‘unfinished agenda of partition’; the merger of Jammu and Kashmir with Pakistan being a Muslim populated state. Militarily Pak couldn’t take Kashmir, now it is trying the Islamic card and proxy war as means to that end. Radicalization in the state is going on unabated.
Despite fencing, tight security and effective retaliation, militants and BATs sneak in and carry out suicidal attacks in civil and military areas. Who is safe in civic streets if military garrisons are not safe. In the backdrop of 2nd terrorist attack on well guarded Sunjwan military garrison, in the wee hours of 10th February, security analysts need to go deep into the root cause of the malaise. Security forces may counter the internal threat but border issue is a political problem which must be settled by the govt whichever way it can be best resolved. Many roadmaps have been put on the table and discussed in the past. Efforts have been made to resolve the disputed border with Pakistan with the understanding that lesser contentious issues be settled first and border issue be dealt later when congenial atmosphere is created have not worked. To start with, ‘UN Observer Groups India and Pakistan’ must prevail upon both sides to restore ceasefire on the border on the humanitarian grounds. The status quo is not the solution. If it was so, some solution would have emerged. Whatever be the constraints, sufferings of the people on the border must end. It calls for out of the box thinking.
There are many proposal such as Dixon Plan, trifurcation of the state, self rule, greater autonomy, abrogation of Article 370 etc. which must be considered as long term solution to the internal problem. To resolve the border issue, military option may be considered despite the nuclear deterrence. Conversely, Indian intelligence agencies must use covert and overt means to destabilise Pakistan. POJK, Sindh and Baluchistan provide fertile grounds for exploitation. LoC as IB is also an option for a permanent solution if Pakistan agrees.
Or else, let us come out of bi-lateral syndrome and fall back on international community to help resolve ‘K’ issue in the backdrop of China covertly meddling in Kashmir imbroglio. Need of the hour is give succor to the border people.
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