Brij Bhardwaj
In next few weeks there will be lot of excitement in political circles as announcements will be made regarding the election of new President of India. The outcome of the contest for the post of President of India will result in victory for National Democratic Alliance but margin of victory will be of interest as it will indicate if the opposition parties have been able to unite to fight the ruling party or they remain divided as they were during the poll for Rajya Sabha where BJP was able to win at least three extra seats.
The BJP was able to win extra seats because it was able to win independent members to its side and even able to persuade few members in opposition to either indulge in cross voting or waste their vote by making it invalid. In case of Haryana, the independent member won by one vote because a Congress member vote was declared invalid. In Karnataka BJP won because the Congress Party and Janata Dal Secular could not come to an understanding and both lost.
In Maharashtra a former Congressmen helped BJP to win extra seat. This clearly shows that opposition parties are unable to win over independent members or come to an understanding between themselves to give a fight. Seeing the poor prospects of opposition candidate in Presidential poll, NCP leader Sharad Pawar has declared in advance that he will not be a candidate. His name was being suggested by many leaders of Maharashtra.
The attempt by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to get opposition leaders on common platform has also evoked poor response. Congress party, Communist and DMK are likely to stay away. Even Aam Aadmi party is cool to attempts by West Bengal Chief minister. Congress President who had spoken earlier to Mamata is also not happy at the attempts made by Bengal Leader to take lead on the subject without consulting other opposition leaders.
Even if opposition parties unite, NDA on its own has enough votes to come close to getting a majority. In addition many independents will side with them. Two States which can tilt the balance are Orissa and Andhra. The leaders of two states have not indicated so far which side they will go. If NDA wins even one of them it will be able to make its nominee the next President of India.
BJP has asked its senior leaders, party President and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to talk with allies and opposition parties on this subject. BJP has officially not given any hint about their nominee for head of State. The obvious choice would have been to promote Vice President Venkaiah Naidu, but it seems unlikely. Another kite flown is to field Kerala Governor Arif Mohammad Khan. It may be mentioned that BJP had supported Dr Abdul Kalam as President.
There is also talk of making former Minorities Minister who was not fielded in recent poll for Rajya Sabha as a candidate for vice Presidentship, as at present BJP has no Muslim in its ranks in both houses of Parliament. or in State Assemblies. The contest for President will be interesting even if the outcome is not in doubt. With election of new President field will be set for coming Lok Sabha poll in 2024. Jammu and Kashmir will not be able to take part in poll as union Territory has no Assembly and no elections can take place soon as work of delimination is yet to be completed. The members of Parliament from State, however will take part in the poll.
Indications are NDA candidate will be a loyal party worker as was case with current choice as it is felt President can play a crucial role in the event of party failing to get clear majority. BJP looks like a winner at present but there is no reason for them to take any chances. So Presidential contest will generate many storms but outcome is not in doubt.
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