Harsha Kakar
kakarharsha@gmail.com
Tensions in SE Asia were visible at the Shangri La dialogue in Singapore last month. SE Asia has witnessed increased defence spending solely due to challenges from a resurgent China. India is not the only country facing threats from China but all its neighbours. SE Asia’s three main nations, Japan, South Korea and Philippines are alliance partners of the US, which, while responsible for their security, is insisting that they enhance their defence expenditures.
Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of War, stated at the dialogue, ‘Allies who refuse to step up and carry their own weight for our collective defence will face a clear shift in how we do business.’ While he did mention that the US will not let China impose its ‘hegemony’ over the region, he skipped mentioning Taiwan. This is the first time it has happened in over a decade. However, Hegseth highlighted the region’s concern over distrust on China’s intent by mentioning, ‘There is rightful alarm regarding China’s historic military buildup and expansion of its military activities in the region and beyond.’
Japan, which has been facing Chinese anger over its PM, Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that an attack or naval blockade on Taiwan becomes a ‘survival threatening situation’ came for the dialogue all guns’ blazing. Its Defence Minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, countered China by mentioning, ‘There is a country that has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons and strategic bombers. Japan has neither of such weapons, and yet Japan is labelled neo-militarist. Isn’t it strange?’ He added, ‘Japan will steadily build up its defence capabilities and make continuous updates with a high degree of transparency. We will do so in order to defend our nation and contribute to peace and stability of a free and open region.’ Japan highlighted that its primary concern remains China.
The Philippines also announced increased defence spending due to Chinese threats. Its Defence Secretary, Gilberto Teodoro, mentioned, ‘For countries like the Philippines, which is under severe threat territory-wise and politically too by China, ?we have no choice but to be resilient and stand up against Chinese aggression.’ Speaking on Chinese offers on fertilizers and fuel, he added, ‘No matter how they sugarcoat their assistance to us, it ?doesn’t cut the mustard. It’s actually guileful.’ Nations no longer trust China.
Vietnam appeared more guarded in its approach though it has differences with China over islands in the South China Sea. Its President, To Lam, delivering the key note, advocated adhering to a ‘rules-based order’ as also ‘peaceful settlement of all disputes and disagreements’ based on the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China does not accept decisions given by UNCLOS if they are not in its favour and hence disputes remain.
The Chinese defence minister, Dong Jun, skipped the dialogue for the second year. No reason was given. Beijing’s delegation was led by Major General Meng Xiangqing from the PLA’s National Defence University. Cui Tiankai, former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, speaking at a session mentioned, ‘If the one-China principle is upheld, if (there is) no external interference into China’s process of national reunification, I can assure you any instability in the Taiwan Strait will be removed once and for all.’ For China, Taiwan remains its Red Line.
South Korea, apart from announcing increased defence spending also pushed for operational control over all forces in the country. Its defence minister, Ahn Gyu-back, highlighted the country’s intent for self-reliance in defence. He emphasized on a three-axis defence system against North Korea, which includes pre-emptive strike, missile defence and massive retaliation capabilities.
Tensions are high led by China and North Korea. Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia have either procured or are in the process of procuring Indian Brahmos missiles for securing themselves from China. Nations are enhancing military power as also working to operate jointly, especially in the maritime domain. Maritime nations are closer to the US while mainland nations like Cambodia, Laos and Thailand are dependent on China.
Japan, while enhancing military capabilities, is seeking increased cooperation with nations challenging China. To signal a change in its approach, it has lifted restrictions on export of military hardware. Japan, as a member of QUAD, suggested a QUAD defence minister’s meeting in India this year. The intent is to strengthen defence collaboration and take QUAD beyond just diplomacy. It also announced close cooperation with Australia and New Zealand in defence matters. While sticking to its ‘one-China policy’ Japan has conveyed that any Chinese actions in the Taiwan Straits remain a threat to its security.
India will have a role to play in the region. The Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation between India and Japan, issued in August last year, highlights multiple aspects including contributing to each other’s defence capabilities and readiness, Indo-Pacific stability, bilateral exercises and defence technology transfers amongst other aspects.
What does the Shangri La dialogue convey for India
Firstly, China is and will remain a major threat, despite ongoing talks. It can never be trusted. It only respects force. Therefore, developing military capabilities which act as a deterrence is the need of the hour. Added is ensuring that the defence budget is adequate. In India’s case it is an accepted fact that China will invest in Pakistan’s military capabilities to add to pressures as also keep Indian attention divided. Hence, India must be prepared for a two-front conflict.
Secondly, is the need for self-reliance in defence production. Aatmanirbharta is no longer an option but a necessity. Thirdly, if China is to be checkmated then development and operationalization of the Car Nicobar naval project, which can hit China’s Achilles heel in the Malacca Straits, needs to be developed with speed. Unless we are in a position to threaten China’s essential supplies, we will only be defensive.
Fourthly, is the need to enhance our alliances with nations which face similar threats from China, mainly in SE Asia. Fifthly, the more weapons we provide to nations in SE Asia, the stronger is the message we convey to China. The Indian defence secretary announced the sale of Brahmos missiles to Vietnam and possible sale to Indonesia at the summit. India needs to now move forward displaying an intent to counter China rather than remain defensive.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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