Anil Anand
a.anil.anand@gmail.com
There are many “firsts” to the credit of the current central dispensation, both in its governance and political formats, as the penchant is now widely known. Mostly the “firsts”, for the purpose of claiming credit, are related to success and Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads from the front to claim credit and rightly too.
What about the “first” of a different variety, a failure?
The unfavourable outcome of the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026, related to the tricky issue of Women’s Reservation in the legislatures but focused on equally contentious delimitation of constituencies, in Lok Sabha has sprung surprise across the board. The Congress-led opposition, which has been at the receiving end both inside and outside Parliament for the last over a decade, suddenly tasted a victory and a sweeter one. However, the bigger story is about the strategy of the ruling party (read government) and its subsequent failure-behind the episode beginning with convening of the special session and subsequent fiasco on the floor of the Lower House, causing consternation in the BJP camp.
Although it is still to be seen how the Women’s Reservation issue in its latest manifestation unfolds in the ongoing set of assembly elections, it has given rise to a vital question about the veracity of strategy behind the episode. And also, who had planned the entire issue. Even if the BJP wins, dislodging Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal (the mother of all contests in this phase), one must come to know about the real intent and name of the strategist or group of strategists. Surely and true to his style Mr Modi will lead from the front in claiming credit for victory against her.
However, the story will take a different twist if despite an all-out effort BJP fails to defeat Trinamool Congress. In such an eventuality in the now Modi versus Mamta contest that is dominating the poll narrative in the state, the possibility is either look for a scapegoat or simply gloss over the issue through maintaining golden silence which has been the part of BJP’s strategy during the last decade or so. The former option is a possibility but the latter has no chance as the galvanized opposition particularly Ms Banerjee will directly target Mr Modi and is not going to rest whatever be the outcome of the assembly elections.
The Congress and the BJP are ideologically diametrically opposite and are apart like north and south poles. The only commonality between the two brands is the mystery on who the strategists or advisors to their top leaders are. Who are the advisors of Mr Rahul Gandhi or the party strategists? Who is advising Mr Modi? These questions are often heard in Delhi’s political and power circles but without any clue or answer.
This mystery is a shift from the past Indira Gandhi era to later Vajpayee regime. All through particularly during the Prime Ministership of these two towering leaders the line-up of advisors and political strategists was well-defined and in the public domain. But not now. In case of Mr Gandhi, at times, serious doubts arise whether he has any advisors at all or the Congress has any strategy at all?
There, though, is a small distinction on this issue between the two parties. Home Minister and former BJP president Amit Shah is publicly known as the chief strategist and enjoys the sobriquet of “Chankya”. The Congress does not have even such a charade.
Clearly, outcome of the special session of Parliament has shifted the focus from opposition (read Congress- though the party found overwhelming mention In Prime Minister’s special address to the nation, thereby giving rise to another controversy) to the BJP and more so on Mr Modi as he inimitably was the master of ceremonies. As an immediate follow up he lost no time in raking up the issue, of opposition ditching the women on Reservation issue, in his poll campaign and the women cadres lost no time in hitting the road.
Whosoever was the strategist, the following questions will haunt him or her in the days to come.
* Why need for a special session of Parliament when the Budget Session was already on?
*What was the logic of moving the Constitution Amendment Bill when the BJP-led alliance was way short of two-thirds majority, a prerequisite to get a Constitutional Amendment Bill passed?
* Did the strategists take the Congress and other opposition parties far-granted assuming that they will fall in line on the gender-sensitive issue, particularly in the midst of elections, at the cost of ignoring the attached more contentious delimitation proposition?
* Was any understanding arrived at with parties such as Trinamool Congress, DMK, Shiv Sena (UBT) or Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) which misfired at the logical moment?
* Was attaching the delimitation condition to the already passed Women’s Reservation Bill in 2023, a miscalculation or a case of over-confidence?
* Or was it a calculated move to further hold back the Women’s Reservation issue in line with the thinking of many in the Sangh Parivar knowing well that the Bill could be defeated?
* Why a kneejerk reaction in notifying the 2023 unanimously passed Women’s Reservation Bill in the dead of night after defeat of the Constitutional Amendment Bill?
* Why was the Bill held back from notification for nearly two years?
Replying to these questions will be an acid-test for the ruling dispensation or its strategist/strategists as the divided opposition has been delivered an opportunity on platter to rejuvenate themselves. A win or loss in the five state assembly elections, in this backdrop, will definitely provide a handle to the Congress and its regional allies to set their future course ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections provided their leaders keep their inflated egos under check and resist allurements and threats from the central dispensation.
The defeat of the Constitutional Amendment Bill is certainly a loss of face for the BJP-led alliance and particularly the Narendra Modi dispensation. This is also the “first” of its kind for them since 2014, ever since the Modi juggernaut went on the roll using variety of weapons in its armoury, to have lost a legislative battle.
Whether it is a miscalculation or a case of over-confidence, both these factors were alien to the combo of Modi-Shah as all their missions were perfected to the last detail till the fall of this Constitutional Amendment Bill. It will be interesting to know the details of the plan and whether it was based on the premise to turn the defeat on the floor of Lok Sabha into victory. It became evident in the immediate protests by the BJP’s leaders and women activists targeting Congress and other opposition parties. The fact remains that Congress has been their prime target in this operation, indirect.
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