Col J P Singh
Off late US is literally after Pakistan. Perceived as pro India diatribes, lot is being said and written about it. Bitter tantrums, both ways, certainly offsets the status-quo, fully expose both and give shivers in the spine. At the dawn of new year, President Trump directly questioned Islamabad’s commitment to the US war on terror and said, “US gotten only ‘lies & deceit’ in return for foolishly having given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid”. US president unequivocally blamed Pakistan for providing safe heavens to the insurgents who target NATO forces in Afghanistan. After this the relations between Washington and Islamabad have hit the rock bottom. Outrageous wrap of a trusted ally means US dared call a spade a spade. It also means that the ally has lost the faith and trust of its benefactor. Visibly the impact of Trump’s salvos was prompt. Pak leadership went into tizzy. However Beijing came to its rescue thereby giving Pakistan a breather. Before I consider long term impact of US threats (tantrums), the short term impact is obvious ie Pakistan has been not only exposed and nailed also. It is also pertinent to mention that it is not the first time that such standoff has come to be seen.
Similar love hate relationship has been there even before. Earlier also Pakistan had been on the brink of being abandoned and punished by the US. In his book, ‘Friends Not Masters, President Ayub Khan has stated that not only that US, a trusted friend, did not come to their aid in 1965 Indo-Pak War but stopped all military and economic aid for going to war against India. President Bush had stopped all US military and economic aid to Pakistan invoking the Pressler Amendment in October 1990 charging Pakistan with crossing the nuclear red-line. In May 1998, President Clinton imposed additional sanctions punishing Pakistan for 1998 nuclear tests. And during the Kargil misadventure, Clinton declined Nawaz Sharif’s request to rescue Pakistan, instead summoned him to Washington, admonished and compelled him to pull out. But this time around US allegations are rather serious because they come from Trump, arguably the strongest person with strongest views against terrorism. On assuming presidency he vowed to root out terrorism from the globe. Ironically, at no stage US has talked about Pak involvement in global terror or exporting terror to India.
Washington has unequivocally blamed Pakistan for fuelling insurgency in Afghanistan. These charges raise many eyebrows and pose disturbing questions. For instance, when Washington really believes that Afghan militant groups have safe havens in Pakistan, why has there been no decisive physical action against these militant outfits? NATO forces had been carrying out drone attacks on Taliban and al-Qaeda hideouts inside Pakistan. Even al-Qaeda founder Osama-bin-Laden was killed by the US Special Operations Forces in 2012 in Abbottabad military cantonment without taking Pakistan into confidence. Thus it is intriguing to see why US is not taking action against Afghan insurgent groups inside Pakistan. Rather than warning salvos, direct action would send a stronger signal to the ally. If US is hopeful of Pakistan acting against them She is sadly mistaken because for Pakistan they are a strategic asset. What US may do is their problem but for us the question remains unanswered is that why the US, despite having all the might it takes to target militant and terrorist groups world over, has not opted for direct action. When India can launch successful surgical strikes why doesn’t US? Asking Pakistan to do it, is a puzzle, an oddity to say the least if it is not for the fear of estranging an ally on whose mercy American presence in Afghanistan sustains. Pakistan has provided access to Karachi Port and land & air transit routes to Kabul. That could be an inhibition of direct action also inferred as double speak for which Trump is known. After warning North Korea of ‘fire and fury’ he is accepting a dialogue at an appropriate time.
American threats, even if tantrums, impacts Pakistan in many ways. So far as our interest is concerned the following are in the realm of possibilities. (i) Internal stability. Country is unstable. There is insurgency in most part of the country. Corruption is ruling the roost. Nation is in an agitation mood. There is no law and order worth its name. Imran Khan is threatening direct action against the govt on daily basis. Voices of dissent and agitation are rising in POJK. Insurgency has risen in Baluchistan after the CPEC. A bomb blast outside Quetta Assembly killed eight on 10th January. TTP attacks on the security forces continue. Global terrorist leaders such as Hafiz Saeed of L-e-T and Masood Azhar of J-e-M get a free hand to radicalize people and export terror to India. (ii) Politically Pakistan is passing through uncertainty. Incumbent prime minister has been removed by the judiciary on the trumped up charges of corruption and money laundering on the basis of Panama Paper leaks. Political analysts see Pak Army’s hand in the conspiracy. Nawaz Sharif has been banned for contesting elections. His brother Shabaz Sharif and the family is also under scrutiny. Seeing his prospects bright, Imran Khan is calling for early elections. Imran is perceived to be army’s protégé and more anti India than Nawaz. Hafiz Saeed has formed a political party and is freely holding public rallies despite US taking his actions seriously. Whenever the election is held, it will be an anti US electioneering. If the nation can be galvanized into anti US hysteria, it will be a free run for the people like Hafiz Saeed and the terrorists. (iii) Economically, Pak existence depends upon foreign aid most of which comes from US, Saudi Arabia and China. Since US has suspended economic aid and has the leverage of stopping Saudi, IMF and World Bank aid / loans, its economy can cripple unless China comes to its aid in a big way. Under the circumstances Pakistan is looking at China, not only for immediate rescue, but an avenue of escape from the US wrath, under the $60 billion CPEC project. It is well known that Chinese aid comes with a price tag which Pakistan will have to pay with premium. Hence Pakistan is going to land in Chinese trap for long. (iv) Strategically, Beijing entry in South Asia unhinges US South Asian policy and secures its dominance in Indian Ocean region and CPEC. More the America distances from Pakistan, more China enters South Asia posing security challenges to India and US. But some analysts claim that Beijing is unlikely to come to direct conflict with either the US or India over Pakistan because of its economic interests. What is important for India is China’s tacit support to Pak terrorists and PLA incursions in Indian territory, rather than the direct conflict.
For the US Pakistan is a stumbling block in its push for India’s economic involvement in Afghanistan. American concern is to compel Pakistan to fall in line with its latest strategy in the South Asian region in which India is a player. This inhibits US taking a direct action. US has been giving priority to Delhi over Islamabad ever since Trump has come to power. Would Pakistan accept India’s dominance in the region and if not what would be US reaction is to be seen. PLA’s presence in POJK with other planned military establishments pose great strategic challenges for India. China’s territorial ambitions and its entry in Indian Ocean Region should be the Indian concern. Army Chief has also spoken about shifting focus to Northern Borders. In no way Trump tantrums address our challanges. Hence we have no reason to be happy.
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