Harsha Kakar
The two Koreas appear to be moving forward post the successful summit between the two leaders. The agreement signed, details of which were released later, indicates steps taken between the two nations to create an environment of peace, post the rise of tensions in the peninsula, after North Korean nuclear and missile tests last year. Within days of the meeting between Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un, the loudspeakers broadcasting propaganda on both sides have begun being dismantled. Post the meeting even the main issue of testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles appear to have been resolved.
The subsequent announcement of North Korea to close its nuclear testing facility at Punggye-ri in full international glare has also brought to close a major irritant between the US, its Asian allies and North Korea. The same would begin later this month and would likely be monitored by the UN. It was nuclear and long-range missile testing which compelled trump to label Kim Jong-un as the little ‘RocketMan’ and threatened him with fire and fury. With Kim agreeing for talks, the little ‘Rocket Man’ has suddenly become ‘very honourable’ in Trump’s eyes and an acceptable member of the international community.
It is nuclear disarmament that Trump wants to discuss with Kim, when he plans his summit in the coming weeks, but is it worth the effort or would it push the progress made by the two Koreas into the sunset, is the issue. After all Trump is impetuous and unreliable in behaviour. His present advisors including Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, his new secretary of state and NSA, are staunch anti-North Korea, despite Pompeo having met him over the Easter weekend. For them, the only solution is North Korea dismantling its nuclear weapons and handing over the same to the US, as Gaddafi had done earlier with his nuclear designs.
Though Kim did announce that he was willing to denuclearize provided the US promised not to launch any offensive, but would he trust the US, as its past record indicates otherwise. To further add to the confusion is the comment in the joint declaration of a four party meeting involving the two Koreas, China and the US for considering denuclearization.The attitude of the US over the decades would make any leader who heads a totalitarian regime and is anti-US, doubtful of US intentions.
It was promises by the US which made Gaddafi hand over his nuclear weapons designs. Years later, it was the US which supported the Arab spring which led to his ouster and subsequent killing. The same happened with Saddam, whom the US engaged on the pretext of possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction. While the western powers under the guidance of Obama pushed the Iran nuclear deal, Trump has vowed to kill the deal, while supporting any coalition against it, including its arch enemies, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Despite multiple threats and screams, the US has been unable to force Pak to act against terror groups and terror group leaders on its soil, as it possesses nuclear weapons. Nor has Pak even indicated a willingness to push the Taliban for talks. All US pressures and threats have led to naught. Hence, if Kim accepts the words of Trump and begins denuclearization, his days are likely to be numbered.
Therefore, while he has announced closure of his nuclear testing site, stated the ultimate aim is a denuclearized peninsula, no time limit has been set. Dismantling would never be an easy decision as it would leave him vulnerable to US covert actions. Kim would have known that he needs no further tests. His missiles may still not be able to target mainland US, but he has the power to target Japan, South Korea and US military bases in the Pacific. This is enough for him to possess the level of security that he requires for the future of his regime.
A hawkish US seeking to push through immediate denuclearization would witness complete surprise. Further, if the US pressurizes and it fails, in the current international standing, it would have no support for any further sanctions in the UN. Russia and China may on the other hand demand easing of sanctions as the North has begun fulfilling its part of the agreement. The present summit between Trump and Kim would only be testing waters. Kim would never commit in front of Trump alone any plans for denuclearization.
Any formal discussion on denuclearization would involve at least China, if not Russia and other powers too, akin to the Iran deal. The aim would be an international guarantee, at least from both rival camps, ensuring that the US would never take unilateral action. China would never want a unified Korea as it would bring the US to its doorstep. In this context, the Trump-Kim meeting may be an eyewash and meaningless.
More important is the fact that the forward movement made in the talks between the two Koreans is still in the nascent stage, hence any rough push by either side including breaking dialogue would ensure that this progress is also pushed back.Kim’s visit to China prior to the talks has ensured that China would back it, hence he pushed the involvement of China in a long- term peace deal. The US with its current relations with both Russia and China may be unwilling for such multilateral talks, hence leading to a stalemate.
Expectations on both sides are opposite, therefore finding common ground is difficult. While there would be immense preparatory meetings and interactions prior to two major leaders sitting across the table, yet chances of derailment remain high.
It is safer for the world if Trump decides to push back his meeting, letting the progress in talks between the two Koreans settle and enhance confidence, rather than walking in and mitigating the environment.
(The author is a retired Major
General of the Indian Army)
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