T K Singh
As tensions intensified on the border areas between India and Pakistan, the real motives of the unprovoked firing from the Pakistani soldiers are yet to be identified. It has been speculated that the main reasons of the illegitimate firing could be firstly to divert attentions from current domestic disorder in Pakistan; secondly, it was presumed that the firing was a disloyal demonstration of Pakistani soldiers against its Government for allegedly sharing warm gesture with India (as both the leaders agreed to initiate a Foreign Secretaries level talks during Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s India visit in May 2014); thirdly, the firing was possibly opened to support infiltration to create disturbance in the upcoming Assembly elections (late December 2014 and early January 2015) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K); fourthly and most importantly, it was suspected that the firing was a cover up tactic of Pakistani soldiers to support massive infiltration before the arrival of winter for a new form of warfare in J&K.
The fourth hypothesis requires deeper analyses as Pakistan is perhaps frustrated with the decrease of militant activities in the past few years and has been looking for a fresh strategy to launch new phase of Jihad (to augment the fading violence in the region). It contradictorily happens, when the world is expecting that militancy could be increased in J&K with the removal of the US troops from Afghanistan, and getting supports from new Jihadi group such as Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Indicating the dying situation in militancy and revealing significant security improvement in J&K, the Annual Report of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) 2013-14 disclosed that in last nine years militancy related violence in J&K has been considerably reduced as 1,990 incidents were recorded in 2005 against 170 in 2013. Subsequently, number of civilians killed has been decreased from 557 in 2005 to 15 in 2013. Consequently, the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on the Independence Day (15 August) stated that there has been “80 percent reduction in militancy related incidents during the last five and half years”.
Meanwhile revealing a serious blow on the leaderships of militant outfits such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Lt. Gen. Gurmit Singh, General Officer in Command (GOC) XV Corps on 22 June 2014, just one day before he handed over his command to Lt. Gen. Subrata Saha explained that while top 10 militant commanders were eliminated in 2013, the same number were neutralised in Kashmir valley in 2014 (till June).
Off course, these may not be good news for those across the border who wanted to keep J&K burning with the flame of militant activities. As militancy began to downslide in the state, possibly frustrated extremist leaders are trying to revitalize the violent movement as a new phase with physical and moral support (direct or indirect) from global Jihadi groups. A chronological study of terror related events in the past few months indicates that the latest ceasefire violation could obviously be a divergent tactic of Pakistani soldiers to support new wave of infiltration.
On 28 May 2014, Jamat-ud-Dawa (LeT) Chief Hafiz Saeed, accompanied by a former Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General arranged a rally by the name “Takbeer Convention” at the famous Aabpara Chowk near ISI headquarters, Islamabad. He had made a provocative speech amongst thousands and asked to wage a “final Jihad” against India to free Kashmir. Five days after the fairy speech given by Saeed, open sources documents have divulged on 03 June 2014 that cadres from LeT, HM and JeM are likely to make joint attempts to infiltrate the region in the successive months. Thereafter on 11 June 2014 it was revealed that the three outfits have made their latest efforts to augment manpower by launching a fresh drive to recruit local “talent” into their ranks in J&K. Having direct or indirect links to this modern terror campaign, on 13 June 2014 ISIS also released a new video in Urdu, motivating people in Kashmir to join hands with their “brothers” in Iraq and Syria and launch Jihad against India.
Intentionally or coincidentally though there were barely such incidents earlier in the year, series of ceasefire violations by the Pakistani soldiers were observed after the introduction of this alleged modern wave of warfare. From 13-18 June and 16-20 July 2014 Pakistani soldiers opened continuous unprovoked heavy firing in Balakote and Mendhar Sectors (Poonch District), Keri Sector ( Rajouri District), and Suchetgarh Sector in RS Pura (Jammu District). On the other side, infiltration attempts have been increased as well as foiled by Indian security forces in areas such as Balakote, Mendhar, Krishna Ghati and Bhimber Gali Sectors. Concerning the sudden increase of ceasefire violation, on 22 July 2014 the Union Defence Minister Arun Jaitley highlighted in the Rajya Sabha that around 60 such incidents have been recorded till July 2014.
The latest round of ceasefire violation (post June) that displaced thousands of villagers and took lives of security personals and civilians, considered to be the longest and most severe firing on borderlines after 1971 Indo-Pakistan War (according to Director General of Border Security Force). This was first observed on 08 August 2014, when Pakistani troops targeted Indian forward posts in Bhimbher Gali Sub-Sector of Poonch District. This was followed by serial attacks on different BOPs in number of areas including RS Pura and Arnia in Jammu from 10-24 and 27/28 (intervening night) August 2014. Till now reports have suggested that above 90 ceasefire cases have been recorded in 2014.
Meanwhile, to bring peace between the two nations and after more than 15 times of appeals made by the Indian authorities, one Sector Commander and two Commandant levels flag meeting between BSF and Pakistani Rangers have been held at Octroi Post in Suchetgarh Sector, RS Pura (29 August 2014), Pargwal and Ramgrah (27 and 28 August 2014) respectively. Though the Pakistani Rangers reluctantly agreed to stop firings through the negotiations which were held under condensed pressures, cross border firing to promote infiltration is likely to be continued (or begin again) at their will after a brief halt.
These cover up firings are expected to persist till the advent of winter, with maximum attempts of infiltration. Meanwhile, the intentions to conceive a new phase of militancy by the extremist Pakistani elements with high attentions from international Islamist group (ISIS) needs to be monitored seriously and thwarted in time. At the same time, the trend of decreasing violent incidents in J&K should be maintained to continue, so that a final result to end violence would be achieved automatically in the next few years.
(The author is an Assistant Professor at the Department of National Security Studies in the Central University of Jammu, India.)
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