Rekha Chowdhary
All over the country, it is election time. In Jammu and Kashmir also the buzz around elections has started. Political parties have started strategising about their participation in Parliamentary elections. Ever-prepared for elections, the BJP has already set in motion the process of electoral campaign by opening new offices and even starting the process of identifying the candidates. Two new parties, the Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party DPAP have already declared their intention of contesting all the five parliamentary seats. The Congress, NC, PDP and People Conference – have all started focusing on the election strategy.

Election Watch

Certainly with five seats, Jammu and Kashmir’s Lok Sabha share is too small to make any impact on the larger picture – the way some of the bigger states like UP, Maharashtra, MP, Bihar etc are going to make, or even the relatively smaller neighbouring states like Punjab can make. Yet, the small number of seats notwithstanding, elections are considered crucial by the political parties and analysts alike, for a number of reasons. The first reason being that this will be first big electoral exercise to take place in J&K in last few years. After the last elected government collapsed and Legislative Assembly was dissolved in the middle of 2018, there have not been many opportunities for the political parties to mobilise their supporters and for voters to vote. Even the grass root elections (with the exception of District Development Council elections held in 2020) have been a rarity. The last Panchayat and Municipal elections took place in 2018.
It is in the situation of ‘no election’ – that the Parliamentary elections have assumed importance. For political parties having come to understand that earliest that the Assembly elections would take place would be after the Parliamentary elections are over – the Parliamentary elections has become an opportunity to test the political ground. More so, for its being the first major electoral exercise after the abrogation of the special constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir and after the reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir. The political performance of parties would provide some indication about their standing in the Assembly elections later.
Parliamentary elections are also considered important for another reason – the fresh carving of the parliamentary constituencies with long term political consequences. Till 2019, J&K state had six constituencies. Two for Jammu region (Jammu and Udhampur constituency), three for Kashmir region (Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag) and one for Ladakh. After the reorganisation, the five seats have been so distributed that while Jammu region has retained its two seats of Jammu and Udhampur, it has got share in the third seat carved out of Anantnag seat of Kashmir region. Named as Anantnag-Rajouri seat, this seat is commonly shared between Jammu and Kashmir regions. While having eleven Assembly segments from Kashmir region, it has seven Assembly segments from Jammu region. The Assembly segments falling within the district of Poonch and Rajouri which were earlier part of Jammu Parliamentary constituency (with the exception of Kalakote-Sundarbani) are now part of this newly carved constituency of Anantnag-Rajouri.
Lot is being speculated as to what extent this newly carved constituency is going to impact the political trends within J&K. While for some political analyst, this constituency is going to work as a bridge between Jammu and Kashmir regions, for others, it is going to change the balance between the two regions. Whichever way the constituency goes, one thing is sure, it is going to be a very competitive election here with a number of parties seeking to test their political mantle here.
On the whole, it is going to be high stake election for a number of parties and this is already getting reflected in their approach towards election. For the BJP, the aspiration is to go beyond its stronghold of two constituencies in Jammu region and have a foothold in Kashmir region via Anantnag-Rajouri seat. This party has invested a lot in this Gujjar-Pahari constituency – initially by granting political reservation to the Gujjars as Scheduled Tribes and later by granting Scheduled Tribe Status to the Paharis. By winning at least three seats during the Parliamentary elections, it seeks to assert its potential in forming the government after Assembly election, alone or in alliance with another party.
Stakes are high for NC also. Its goal at the moment is to maintain its dominance in Kashmir’s politics. Its confidence boosted by the District Development Council election when it emerged the leading party of Kashmir region, it seeks to approach the Parliamentary election as a prelude to the Assembly election and winning all the seats of this region to make a claim for forming the government after Assembly election. And for that reason, it does not want to be struck up in any alliance – whether the PAGD or the INDIA Block alliance. It has clearly taken a position that it will be contesting the three seats of of Baramulla, Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri on its own. Any alliance, for this party, will be open only for two seats of Jammu and one of Ladakh. (This aggressive approach of the NC is just the reverse of the PDP that has been facing a downslide since 2019 and seeking alliance whether within the INDIA block or the PAGD)
The stakes are also very high for the People’s Conference which has got a new found confidence about its role and political space in Kashmir’s politics since 2019. Seeing itself as a direct adversary of NC in this region, it is seeking to make a mark not only in the northern Kashmir, its stronghold but in all the Kashmir based constituencies. To give a serious challenge to the NC, it is even seeking to enter alliance with Apni Party – another party that is seeking to find its grounds in Kashmir. Apni Party has already declared its intention to be in the game by declaring its willingness to contest all the seats in Kashmir.
Testing the grounds in this election would also be Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP). For this party that has come out of the Congress, it will be its first election and its first opportunity to test its political claims at the ground. With its major area of action being located in Jammu region, it would be interesting to see its performance in this region, especially vis-a-vis the Congress party. Congress on its part, is also in the race, but to what extent it can make influence the electoral outcome, is anyone’s guess. With all its chances being there in Jammu region, it will be facing stiff competition not only from the BJP but also DPAP.
In short, there is lot of interest in the ensuing Parliamentary election in J&K and one can expect an electorally surcharged environment here during the next couple of months.
(Feedback welcome at rekchowdhary@gmail.com

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