R L Bhat
Perhaps the most comprehensive definition of the word ‘terrorism’ has been given by the US Department of State as ‘premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non combatant targets by some national groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience’. For many years, the common wisdom was that poverty and ignorance is the root cause of terrorist activities. However, subsequent research rejected this argument and 9/11 established that the terrorists were usually educated and wealthy. Almost all the empirical studies by researchers like Krueger and Berrebi established that both higher education and higher standard of living were positively associated with terrorism. Further, the terrorist activities, have every where been caused by political rather than economic factors and the latter may marginally contribute to the phenomenon. At best, increased pace of economic development may reduce the lethality of terrorism. The occurrence of terrorism has significant negative effect on economic growth. It results in a reduction in investment spending and an increase in less productive government expenditure.
Coming to the issue of terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir state, concentrated essentially in the Valley, its genesis gets traced to the perpetual political insatiability in the State during the last seven decades, which has not only impinged its economic growth but has also resulted in rampant corruption and the lack of accountability and transparency in public life. This political instability, in a way, is basically engineered and perpetuated by some politicians and political groups in the State for their own vested interests. Since there always existed a pro-Pak / pro-Azadi constituency in the Valley, nurtured from both within and outside, the persistent political uncertainty gave Pakistan a space to step in. After getting defeated in open wars, it preferred a low cost armed insurgency to annex Kashmir. This effort was planked on a radical Islamic ideology propagated in the Valley and financial support from some Islamic countries.
After terrorism surfaced in the Valley in 1989, the political leadership in the State abdicated its responsibility and with a weak government at the Centre, which never had any long term policy on Kashmir, the State particularly the Valley, became a hotbed of armed insurgency. The forced exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley at the very beginning of armed insurgency in 1990 (as they were considered ‘Indian agents’), brought the already acute demographic imbalance in the Valley to its lowest possible ebb. This helped in the free flow of terrorist activities in the short run and encouraged a radical Islamic way of life among a significant proportion of Kashmiri Muslims, in the long run. The age old tradition of pluralism, Sufism and Kashmiriyat became a casualty. Thirty years down the line, it is not just the story of destruction of men and materials, but more a demise of the total value system. which an average Kashmiri cherished.
Some people, who are not conversant with the ground realities, try to cite economic variables like low growth and wide spread unemployment as the causes of unrest in the State. This is far from truth and the root cause is the political uncertainty within and the role of Pakistan, as the external agent. The State economy has all along been growing along a flatter growth trajectory and its performance on various economic parameters has been dismal, even before the onset of present turmoil. The terrorism has further vitiated the already fragile investment climate, with the result that the private investment and resultant economic activity has not picked up. Post 1991, when the national economy and many of its constituent regional economies have taken off, this State has been left behind. The State historically does not have a local entrepreneurial class. The controversial Articles 370 and 35A have not encouraged the inflow of private capital to the State —– during the turmoil period, there has actually taken place the flight of capital from the Valley. The Government sector, particularly with a low capital expenditure, cannot be expected to become an engine of speedy growth.
A pronounced decline in tourist arrivals to the Valley post 1990; poor performance of agricultural sector; literally zero value addition to the horticulture produce, notwithstanding its spatial expansion (mainly apple) and increased output; post-turmoil overnight emergence of a neo rich class, creating a propensity among many in Kashmir to become millionaires overnight; and above all, poor governance, rampant corruption, trust deficit, uncertainty and lack of probity in public life have resulted in sub optimal development of the State economy. However, the poor performance of the State on the economic front is not the root cause of terrorism …… the malady lies elsewhere.
Now, that Modi led NDA has got a second term of government at the Centre, after BJP got a massive mandate, Kashmir should be high up on its agenda, as the conflict there has persisted for too long now. So, what is the way out? For bringing back sustainable peace to the State, Government of India has to use military, political and also economic measures. Towards this end, it should: i) finish militancy by military means; ii) initiate a sustained de-radicalization policy in the State; iii) continue diplomatic offensive to deal with Pakistan; iv) make it abundantly clear to the regional political parties in the Valley that no more political bluff is acceptable, and, v) remove articles 370 and 35A mainly for economic reasons. This last step can help in the inflow of much needed private capital to the State, for which this regional economy has been crying and dying. It can give a fillip to the growth of income and employment; increase the emotional integration of the State with the rest of the Country; encourage healthy competition; and, bring some semblance of a balance in demography. With role of the governments shrinking, only a vibrant private sector in the State can usher in a golden age ———– in which State grows in tranquility with the possibility of blunting any leftover negative tendencies.
Faster economic growth, controlling corruption in public life, ensuring social justice, delivery of public services and probity in public life can help in the rejuvenation of the lost confidence in the system and win back the silent majority of Kashmiris. There is an urgent need to develop a new culture of politics in the State, which is not based on the destructive anti – India rhetoric ——- something the regional political parties in the Valley believe, ensures their survival. Kashmir, today badly needs a saint-like political leader. The deceptive illusions, hollow slogans and dishonest politicking have to be shown the door. We have had enough of it. Someone, has to rise to the occasion and convince those Kashmiris, who are involved in the mayhem, that the route to bliss does not pass through jihadi terrorism, but via economic prosperity; social cohesion; human development; morality and ethics; commitment, honesty and integrity; and, spirituality, peace and happiness.
It is high time for intelligentsia and other opinion makers to give up perceived comfortable round-aboutness and talk straight, because the objective function is to save Kashmir and Kashmiris. It is our national responsibility!
(The author is Professor Department of Economics, Central University of Jammu)
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