Bhopinder Singh
The biblical lands of the Levantine region, hosting the oldest capital city in the world, Damascus, is witnessing a barbaric civil war that threatens to destroy a city and nation that goes back to the seventh century BC.Like the neighbouring Lebanon, Syria is a restive cauldron of various ethnic denomination like the Sunni Arabs (majority), Kurds, Arab Christians, ethnic Armenians, Shia off-shoots like the Alawites (the ruling sect of President Bashar al-Assad, composing about 12% of the Syrian population) and the Druze. Held together in an iron-grip with the dictatorial and dynastic rule of the Assad family since 1970 (his father Hafez al-Assad, presided over a continuous one-party rule after a coup in 1971, till his death in 2000) – the imminent tinderbox of sectarian faultlines with multiple ethnic-suppressions and aspirations, exploded with the Middle Eastern flare up to challenge the Syrian status-quo. Already touted as the largest forced migration since the World War Two, an estimated five million people have fled in an exodus that has resulted in an unprecedented 400,000 deaths (since March 2011, when the Government started the crackdown on the anti-Government demonstrations, in the city of Deraa).
Today, the Syrian territory is violently torn apart with multiple local and international stakeholders partaking the bloody infighting. Besides the ventilation of the pent-up frustrations of inequities, the neighbouring powers have added to the complexity to further their own personal agendas – the Saudi Arabs and the Turks have upped the ante against the cornered Assad regime to settle sectarian feuds and historic hostilities, by supporting the myriad Syrian opposition groups like the Al Nusra, Free Syrian Army etc. Meanwhile, in a parallel show of Shia-loyalties, the Iranian militia and the Lebanese Shia militias like the Hizbollah and the Amal have thrown their weight behind defending the Assad Government. The other fringe groups like the Turkic population and the Kurds are content to defend their majority-dominated areas from any other factions. Amidst all this, reminiscent of the cold-war era, the two big super-powers i.e. USA and Russia have gone opposite ways, resulting in violent contradictions on-the-ground by supporting the Syrian Opposition Forces and the Assad regime, respectively – all this while, the crucial fight against the common enemy, the ISIS, is also underway and gets shortchanged, diluted in efficacy with sub-optimal coordination amongst the anti-ISIS forces, given that virtually all the varied factions and armies are attacking each other, simultaneously.
The crucial fight against the ISIS gets compromised with the multiple stakeholders not agreeing to one fundamental issue – i.e. the future of Syria, with or without the Assad Government. The Arab governments in the region, the Turks and the local Sunni majority are loath to see Assad retain power, post an ISIS scenario, hence they continue propping groups (however fundamental and regressive the opposition Syrian groups are in outlook e.g. Al Qaida affiliates) that hit ISIS and the Syrian Government assets, simultaneously.
The Russians and the Shia/Iranian militia men are actively targeting the Arab/US supported anti-Assad groups, and the ISIS simultaneously. The Syrian theatre is a veritable free-for-all with multiple foreign armies engaged with each other and also the most fertile recruiting ground for individual Islamic fundamentalists from across the world to participate in the “jihad”, representing one group or the other.
The Syrian madness is planned to get a much needed respite with the recently brokered ceasefire by the Russians and the US in Geneva. Grudgingly the Assad Government, along with US Secretary of State John Kerry and the Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have inked a 48 hour cessation of hostilities. Given the history and the bloodshed, not everyone is convinced, especially since not all of the rag-tag rebel militias are bound by any such agreement, nor is the respite extended across the length and breadth of Syria. The ostensible restrain imposed on the Syrian Air Force is a key component of the holding-up of the agreement as it is believed to be the single largest contributor to the death tolls, when it decides to pound-down incessantly on rebel-held areas – ironically, the time period preceding the formal truce saw an assault on the rebel-held Aleppo and Idlib townships that accounted for nearly a 100 deaths in the aftermath. Expectedly, the Syrian rebels are unconvinced on the Assad government’s intent to honour the agreement, especially since the Assad government is back in the driver’s seat and is brutally reclaiming the lost territories with aerial bombing, amply aided by the Russian forces.
Even though the Syrian society is irreparably fractured in the short-term, the umbrella Syrian Opposition group under the aegis of High Negotiations Committee (HNC) tried to mull over potential future solutions with suggested negotiations for about six-months with the President Bashar al-Assad regime to lead to a permanent ceasefire, and then plan for a popular political transition. This brave initiative envisages the handing over of powers to a unity government for 18 months, followed by a democratic election – however, considering the recent success of the Assad government’s forces, this was immediately rubbished by a resurgent President Bashar al-Assad, who dampened any hope of a future Syria that does not envisage his rule.
For now, the temporary reprieve of the ceasefire, however improbable and tentative, is the best news to emanate from the fractious Syrian battlegrounds where the stakeholders are rewriting the rules of brutality and inhumanity. Therefore unlike the Iraq theatre, where the complexity of stakeholders is of a lesser order, the ISIS is on a clear and unambiguous retreat with many previously-held swathes falling off the grips of ISIS, however, the battlegrounds of Syria remain murky with the play of multiple agendas and ulterior motives. The territories keep exchanging hands amongst the multiple factions with the civilians becoming the collateral damage and an insensitive statistic. More than 27,000 foreign jihadists (from 86 countries) are further muddying the already bloodied waters of Syria with an eye on a caliphate-like dream, already most of the urban centers and cities are a complete ruin with infrequent supplies reaching the besieged cities leading to a colossal humanitarian crisis of unprecedented levels. Starvation, black-marketing of supplies and abysmal medical facilities have become the norm. Even though, militarily the ground situation is ripe to eradicate the menace of ISIS infrastructure with falling recruitment and replenishment of ISIS cadres, deteriorating ISIS financials (the oil wells under their control are fast depleting) and with dilapidating and inadequate repair facilities for their battle wares and equipment – yet the ISIS downfall is getting woefully delayed with defocussed approach and ensuing mayhem. However the most dangerous trend in one of an extreme disillusionment with the Western powers setting in, as it is the same sentiment that caused the rise of ISIS in the first place. Considering the intractable nature of conflict in Syria, this tentative ceasefire, however improbable and unsustainable is the best of the worst options that besets the Syrian tragedy today.
(The author is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Puducherry)
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