Men, Matters & Memories
M L Kotru
The Election Commissioners, all three of them, visited Jammu and Kashmir last week to assess the feasibility of letting the State go to the polls, even as devastated population centres, including summer capital Srinagar, continue to struggle, putting the broken pieces of life together. The Commissioners might have announced their decision, as you to read this. For they seemed convinced that polls could be held as scheduled by December.
From none else than the Prime Minister’s time-tested hatchet man, the one and only Mr. Amit Shah, Mr. Modi’s handpicked BJP Chief, we had heard earlier that operation Jammu and Kashmir was next on his list. Happy, wasn’t he, when he intoned the home truth : Maharashtra aur Haryana toh ho gaye hamare, abhi do aur, Kasmir aur Jharkhand baqi hain.
Those who had pronounced the end of the Modi wave after the series of bye-elections weeks after the parliamentary poll must remember that Modi wave has turned into a Modi Tsunami, Shah had added. The refrain was taken up by the fair weather cock, Arnab Goswami who thundered the next day that it’s onto Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand now, as if the TV anchor had taken over the campaign.
Interestingly, all mainstream parties, in the State, except the ruling National Conference would prefer the polls to be held as scheduled, by December. Very much like the BJP, both at the Central and State levels. The “plus 44” margin in the State Assembly, the party’s target, would see it through to office in the State, if the goal was achieved. The assumption obviously is that the Modi-Shah campaign will get all the Assembly seats in the predominantly Hindu Jammu region.
The poll boycott call by the two separatist Hurriyats and the predominant anti-authority sentiment prevailing in Kashmir after the government’s miserable handling of the devastating floods (most victims are yet to rediscover even a semblance of normality) would, the assumption is, reduce the size of the electorate substantially.
The BJP fancies a low turnout of voters in the valley would work to its advantage. From what all I have been able to gather these past few days. BJP supporters believe that with a shrunk electorate, it more than ever, stands a fair chance of picking up a few seats from the valley. The migrant Kashmiri Pandit vote would become worth its weight ensuring a clear win in at least three valley constituencies including one each in Srinagar, Sopore and Anantnag. I for one would not want the Kashmiri Pandits to become pawns in the electoral battle. They could well weigh in beside one of the mainstream parties or put up their own candidates with assured support from one of these. I am sure the PDP or even the N.C., if not the Congress, would welcome such a prospect.
This would also mark the beginning of a new relationship between the Pandits and the Muslim population, a precursor of happy times, if at all their rehabilitation back in the valley materializes. To ensure the success of its own master plan the BJP is likely to sponsor directly or indirectly a larger number of Independents, if only to divide the floating vote. Low turnout would do the rest to the advantage of the BJP, so the party hopes, to help it achieve its goal of 44 plus.
And to go by the prevailing mood in the valley there are not many buyers for Omar Abdullah and hi s party. His government’s poor record of performance has eroded whatever goodwill he may have inherited from his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah and his father, the flamboyant Farrooq Abdullah. His failure to tend to the needs of the flood ravaged valley has hurt him badly.
I am a bit surprised ,though, that the People’s Democratic Party, by any reckoning the likely winner in the upcoming poll, should have objected to Omar’s suggestions that the polls be delayed by a couple of months, given that the valley is yet to come to terms with the aftermath of the floods. I would personally that the State is brought under President’s rule for a short spell for relief work to go ahead speedily. That would take elections to early March, with winter very much around but on the retreat.
To prove how indifferent the relief effort has been I have in my mind’s eye the image of an ageing widow in the upmarket Karan Nagar locality sitting in the front yard of her house which looked more like a crumbled ruin, waiting for someone to help her. The government seized by a fit of generosity granted her Rs. 25,000 as relief, a sum that should vanish by the time she has had the collapsed heap cleared to start building afresh. Complaints persist of wanton corruption and nepotism in the distribution of relief. A neighbour within 100 meters of the widow I just spoke was offered relief of Rs. 250,000 for lesser damage. Why, the house owner was influential.
Back to the ground reality. In the already surcharged atmosphere one hopes the contesting political parties resist provocative campaigning. Jammu and Kashmir is a part of the union and the temptation to implant sectarianism needs to be resisted. A few wrong utterances here and there and you have vested interests clinging on to these, further raising the walls of suspicion. Nothing can be easier than setting up a Muslim majority Kashmir valley against the Hindu majority Jammu or playing the non-existent Buddhist majority card in Ladakh. Nothing can be more shortsighted. It may win you an election but may cost the country dearly.
The BJP has proved its political ascendancy nationwide; it need not bring its usual poll rhetoric into its upcoming campaign in the State. Prime Minister Narendra Modi owes it to himself and to the nation not let the horses of hatred have a free run. There has been unfortunate talk already which seeks to communalise the scene. It happens when people talk of three distinct regions constituting the State; it happens when needless controversy is raised over non-issues like why can’t a Hindu be the Chief Minister of the State. True, there is no constitutional bar to it. But there is a thing called pragmatism, even political pragmatism.
To sum up, my hopes aside, I do see Mufti Sayeed’s PDP standing up to the waning challenge from traditional foes, National Conference. Curiously, both the State parties have shared power with the Congress in the past although the Congress doesn’t seem to be in the picture any more. Mufti Sayeed, the patron saint of the PDP has by now established his credentials as tall enough leader. It doesn’t surprise me that he should have the widest acceptability of all the politicos in the State. Nine years after he was the Chief Minister he is fondly remembered as a doer. His experience at the Centre, as a Cabinet Minister in successive governments, has earned him much regard at the national level as well. More important, in the present context, is that he commands much respect in Jammu as well.
Follow our WhatsApp channel