Harsha Kakar
India’s attempts to gain entry into the NSG scuttled by a group led by China, was partially expected, however, the venom displayed by them, throughout the conduct of the plenary meeting was unexpected. Their insistence that India’s case cannot even be discussed was evidently part of their pre-planned strategy as was asking Pakistan to forward its membership request. India engaged China at every level, from the President and Prime Minister downwards, which still failed to stem their thought process. In every case, they listened, responded quietly but failed to act. It clearly conveyed the Chinese mind set, which hopefully the Indian government has correctly read.
The debate is not about whether India would gain or not from membership of this club, as it already has a waiver since Sept 2008. India applied for membership as it would be an apt recognition of its nuclear power status.Hence, its actions of pushing forward, bypassing all stops, was logically correct. By insisting on India being a signatory to the NPT, China clearly attempted to block, for eternity, India’s entry into the group, as it emerged that Pakistan, due to its record of proliferation would never even be considered for membership. The NPT can only be signed by non- nuclear states, which India is not, unless the NPT members amend their charter, which is even more unlikely to happen.
China has clearly indicated that it is inimical to India. It has always considered, like any other nation, its own national interests first. Admission of India, would bring to equality a South Asian nation, which would affect their standing in the regional environment. Further, with India also a member of the MTCR, of which China has repeatedly tried but failed, it would be in an advantageous position.
India is the only Asian power, economically and militarily, which can threaten Chinese hegemony in South and East Asia. It therefore cannot let India become an equal member in world bodies, where it could face a threat. China has been one of the proliferators of the NSG guidelines. In case India- China relations do worsen with time, India could use this leverage to embarrass it in the NSG. Further it is now evident that China would be the main stumbling block for India gaining an entry into the UNSC.
The Pakistan factor has again dominated Chinese actions. Its relationship with Pakistan is deepening, akin to its relationship with North Korea. India’s entry would be an internal embarrassment for the Pakistan regime, hence it had to employ all resources at its command to block India’s entry.Further, India could, once admitted, make it difficult for Pakistan to continue to develop nuclear weapons without any capping or monitoring. To convince nations, which had agreed to India’s entry, China would have employed its economic leverage.
International relations are governed by national interests, hence India should have expected the same and been prepared for such a scenario. However, India had to attempt its entry and it did. It would now have to look ahead, plan carefully and ensure that if it has attempted to join the world body, it should. The Government should ignore negative comments from the opposition and its own disgruntled elements and continue engaging nations opposed to India. Whether the special plenary planned for later this year does approve India’s membership or not, is another issue, however, the Chinese hostility is out in the open and for India, it needs to be prepared for the same.
India can no longer trust China to its word. If interactions at the highest levels failed to convince them, nothing else would. Therefore, we need to now take this competition to the next level, where the engagement would hurt. We had made a number of concessions based on Chinese interest including cancelling the visa for Uyghur leaders visiting India, abandoning relations with Taiwan, curtailing comments of the Dalai Lama, however nothing cut the ice with them.India now needs to consider other options. India should re-develop its relations with Taiwan and simultaneouslyenhance naval engagements with Japan. A combination of Indian and Japanese navies would always be a challenge for China. Ideally the frequency and scope of the Malabar exercises should be increased.
India needs to also speed up the sale of its BrahMos missiles to Vietnam,Indonesia and other nations in the region. This may irk China, however, would clearly indicate that India is capable of taking its own decisions in its own national interests. Simultaneously, the development of the Chabahar port too should be fast tracked. Development of this port and establishment of road connectivity with Afghanistan would challenge the One Belt One Road (OBOR) concept of China, especially for Central Asia. At the same time, Chinese actions made it clear that the US no longer leads a unipolar world. The nations which questioned India’s case based on pressure from China indicated the reduced power of the US and the growing clout of China.
The biggest loser in the entire game has been the NSG itself. By being allowed to be led by the nose by China and those whom it could coerce into agreeing with its warped logic, it has shown that proliferators possess the power to stall the entry of non-proliferators. It has also indicated that individual national interests override genuine discussions. It is quite possible that by the time the next plenary is held, the nations would have been influenced by India to set aside their considerations and open doors for India.
India, while continuing to engage China diplomatically, should commence an aggressive outreach to counter China. We are now capable of countering Chinese pressures along our borders. With increasing international pressure on China in the South China sea, now is the time to act. A solely defensive policy, still considering we are militarily and economically weaker may not work, however a mix of offensive and defensive diplomacy may.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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