Vishal Sharma
US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio is on a four day visit to India to attend Quad Ministerial meeting. He touched down in Kolkata instead of Delhi and attended Mother Teresa’s Missionaries of Charity in the city of joy. Why did he do that? The general feeling is that he is a devout catholic and he wanted a powerful religious symbol to start his visit to Delhi and he got one in MoC in Kolkata.
But why did he need to indulge in optics at all on his India tour? Again, the speculating commentators think that India- US relation is currently like a ship adrift in the stormy seas and he sees it his job to navigate it in the best possible way he can, and shepherd it to the harbour. The optics at Kolkata, in his estimation, afforded him the opportunity to combine his personal beliefs with a daunting professional task in conceivably the most credible setting.
Has he succeeded? Well, we will have to wait and see.
This is Marco Rubio’s first visit to India and it takes place under the overhang of recent near rupture in Indo-US relation. The effect of complications in relation has not been lost to anybody. When he arrived at Delhi, no official of any consequence waited at the airport to receive him. This has been seen as a snub to him. Delhi seems to have driven home the message to him quietly yet effectively that respect and admiration for Washington has diminished in the eyes of those who sit in the Kartvaya Bhavan, new address of MEA. And that unless the US takes the lead in repairing the broken relation, Delhi like the US would also be happy with the new normal of dealing with the US in a transactional manner.
Marco Rubio did get audience with the PM Modi ahead of EAM Jai Shankar on day one of his visit in a departure from protocols, leading to speculation that after allowing the message of dissent to register, Delhi quickly moved to course correction in order that his tour was not unnecessarily clouded in controversies.
But Indian press has been at his throat all the time. In a joint presser with Jai Shankar, he seemed clearly rattled when he was asked a question by a media person on the increasing incidence of racism against Indians- in some cases right from the top of the heap. His face when he asked a counter question to the same scribe- ‘who’s made that comment?’ betrayed the tough time he was having dealing with an inquisitive Indian press.
Although he has made the right noises about India-US relation, his message has not registered- neither in the power corridors in Delhi nor on the streets across India. This time there is visible reluctance in India to accept Rubio’s views for what they are. And it is to do with Rubio’s standing or lack of it in the White House. Rubio helms the States department. But in effect, does he?
Rubio is a good human being and a career politician, who understands the nuts and bolts of politics and international relation like most of his predecessors. He has his heart in the right place unlike many of his cabinet colleagues, some of whom are business persons while others are academicians, far removed from cut and thrust of the diplomatic world. The trouble, however, is that for all his good qualities, the boss he reports to is actually the person who has the last word on any and every issue of consequence. While he (US President Trump) speaks high of Rubio, he has effectively side lined him from all important international issues like Iran war, Middle East and Russo-Ukraine war.
This is why it is difficult to believe that what he says on Indo -US relation even has a buy-in from the White house.
The US has a great person in Sergio Gor as the US ambassador to India. He is a man who since his arrival in Delhi has injected a lot of energy into the Indo US relation. On the Indo US relation, he has lent his personal touch to everything he has done. The actualisation of trade deal, which remained held up for many months, is the product of his efforts. Gor has Trump’s ears. It’s another matter India is way down Trump’s list of countries of interest. There is a strong feeling amongst strategic commentators that Rubio’s Delhi visit to attend Quad meeting may after all be the result of his ( Gor’s) persuasion. Otherwise, it is difficult to believe that Trump even remembers the Quad. Delhi should quietly work with him to redeem, whatever is left of the relationship, slowly and steadily without appearing to be doing so.
On a side note, Rubio sees India visit as an opportunity to burnish his credentials as an important player in the diplomatic world. Some say that he may run for US presidency after Trump’s stint finishes. He is someone seen to be currently involved in sprucing up his CV to make a strong case for the US presidency. JD Vance, US VP, another likely candidate for the US presidency seems to have lost steam recently. Jokes are doing rounds in Washington that Trump sent him to Islamabad to negotiate with the Iranian interlocutors knowing full well that Iran talks were not likely to succeed, leading to a dent in his reputation. As expected, Vance returned empty handed from Islamabad. This is stated to have cost him badly reputationally; in some quarters some say that it’s potentially cost him US presidency post Trump era.
Quad as an alliance against China is dead in the water; it has no future. Trump in Trump 2.0 has not been enamoured of the Quad. If anything, he has been dying to have some sort of relation with China. It’s another matter China has not been accommodating of whatever smaller US’s interest that may be there. In the recent Trump visit to China, the body language of Trump in front of the Chinese President, Xi Jinping left nothing to imagination as to who was the boss. TV visuals revealed that Trump was clearly overawed by Xi. Xi even schooled him on how the China would expect the US to conduct himself vis-à-vis Taiwan. Xi set out the Chinese red lines clearly before Trump, and so much as cautioned him against selling arms to Taiwan. Trump listened to him like a school kid listens to a headmaster. This did not come through as a relation between the two peer leaders. It appeared Xi, the overlord was speaking to the head of a vassal state.
In such a backdrop, it does not stand to reason that Trump will invest personal equity in the Quad. The fact is that Trump does not want adversarial relation with Xi’s China. India would be well advised to read the writing on the wall and proceed to have a heart to heart talk with Rubio on the issue. If the US does not want to remain invested in the Quad, and if the Quad is not/not going to be against China; if it does not ensure free and fair Indo pacific region; and if it does not inspire confidence amongst Quad members against the expansionary and predatory economic/military policies of China, then why do we need it? If China is not perceived as a threat to the free and democratic world, then do we really need the Quad?
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