Dr. Satwant Singh Rissam
This month assembly polls are starting and in March 5 states – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa will see formation of new Governments. This big democratic exercise in 5 states is seen as a road to 2024 parliamentary polls. In a way, people will deliver mid-term verdict on the BJP Government at the centre. This time all the five states have different election issues and that can also be seen in the strategies of all the parties and its leaders on the campaign trail. The issues concerning agriculture, crime and corruption, economy and various business and commerce related matters impacting the daily life of citizens are the topic in these elections. However, people in different states this time are made to focus on matters presented to them as per the political convenience of every party. This election season there is a high probability of many politicians being accused of exhibiting double standards after the results as many would switch sides in the name of post poll alliance.
The results from five states would test the charisma of BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The biggest challenge BJP faces is in UP where BJP formed the government in 2017 and later those results helped the party in victory in the parliamentary elections of 2019. The opinion polls this time show BJP is in a strong position in UP, Uttarakhand, and Manipur. All the parties fighting against BJP know that these elections are the biggest political gamble for their survival in the political arena. If BJP wins UP out of five states then it would be a major victory in terms of Lok Sabha seats for them in 2024. But if BJP wins four out of five states but loses UP it would be a major loss in terms of Lok Sabha seats. And if BJP loses three states and wins the election from UP and any one other state, it could still be capable of converting this victory for the 2024 Lok Sabha seats.
Though the results from UP are likely to determine the political strength of BJP but for Congress and emerging Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) overall results from five states are important. As far as UP is concerned the Congress hasn’t forged any major alliance and this may put it in a poor position in terms of seats. Failure on the part of Congress to perform in other four states will cast shadow on its political outlook in the country and the party may see a repeat of 2019 in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Along with it, the restlessness will increase in Congress cadre as we just witnessed last month RPN Singh abandoning the Congress ship. The other problem is that Congress will not be in a position to regroup opposition parties and opposition unity will further weaken. In these elections, the rise of AAP will also be measured in political terms as Arvind Kejriwal and team is making a hectic campaign to prove its growing significance in national politics.
There is a high possibility that the results from these states would cast shadow on the political scene in Jammu & Kashmir also. Infact as per reports, The J&K Delimitation Commission is likely to get a second extension of its term which may further delay any announcement of Assembly elections in the Union Territory. Political leaders from Jammu and Kashmir have to wait more because the possibility of the polls is only after the Delimitation Commission submits its report. That said, BJP which has high cadre strength in Jammu region will once again get time to motivate the public here on issues like peace, security, economy and an opportunity for equitable growth. Besides, this situation will strengthen BJP’s policy on Kashmir and the hate mongers in Kashmir will be left with no other option but to buy peace from the Central Government.
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