Dr Ganesh Malhotra
PM Modi appointed S Jaishankar as professional External Affairs Minister of India. This move is being seen by many as best move of PM Modi in foreign policy matters. During Modi’s first term, Jaishankar was instrumental in turning India’s foreign policy vision into actionable policy. Modi felt that India had behaved more as a balancing power in the world order rather than as one that proactively shapes global rules and norms. S. Jaishankar tried to shape Indian foreign-policy priorities accordingly. As the foreign secretary he gave a pragmatic shape to ties between the United States and India, and also helped resolve the 2017 Doklam crisis between India and China, in which the armies of the two Himalayan neighbours stood face to face at the border of India, Bhutan, and China for more than two months.
By appointing Jaishankar as Minister of External Affairs, Modi has made it clear that, in the coming years, India will prioritise foreign policy. On the global stage, this comes at a time when escalating tensions between the United States and China are shaking up the world order.
Another surprising fact right at the beginning of Modi 2.0 was invitation to BIMSTEC members for swearing in ceremony. BIMSTEC was formed in 1997, originally with Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and later included Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan. BIMSTEC now includes five countries from South Asia and two from ASEAN and is a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia. It includes all the major countries of South Asia, except Maldives, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Bay of Bengal is the largest bay in the world. Over one-fifth (22%) of the world’s population lives in the seven countries around it, and they have a combined GDP close to $2.7 trillion. Despite economic challenges, all the countries in the region have been able to sustain average annual rates of economic growth between 3.4% and 7.5% from 2012 to 2016. The Bay also has vast untapped natural resources. One-fourth of the world’s traded goods cross the Bay every year.
The key reason for India’s engagement is in the vast potential that is unlocked with stronger connectivity. Almost 300 million people, or roughly one-quarter of India’s population, live in the four coastal states adjacent to the Bay of Bengal (Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal). And, about 45 million people, who live in landlocked North-eastern states, will have the opportunity to connect via the Bay of Bengal to Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand, opening up possibilities in terms of development. From the strategic perspective, the Bay of Bengal is a connecting point to the Malacca straits which has emerged a key theatre for an increasingly assertive China in maintaining its access route to the Indian Ocean.
BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) countries, Kyrgyz Republic and Mauritius were invited by PM Modi on his swearing in ceremony. This is well calculated move of PM for major outreach to India’s neighbourhood from the Bay of Bengal to Central Asia, as well as the Indian Diaspora across the world. By inviting the leader from Kyrgyz Republic, India is displaying an outreach to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth was also invited because Mauritius is having one of the well-placed People of Indian Origin in the world and well located in central and strategic location in Indian Ocean.
This move is realisation of the importance of Bay of Bengal community when SAARC is becoming insignificant. BIMSTEC had emerged as a regional platform where five SAARC countries could gather and discuss sub-regional cooperation. India had long felt that SAARC is losing its utility due to an obstructionist approach from Pakistan. In 2014 India tried to give good message of friendly relations with its South Asian neighbours including Pakistan, but it failed in case of Pakistan. At that time only Modi government began to emphasise the importance of BIMSTEC. To some extent that paid off; some of its countries gave support to New Delhi’s call for a boycott of the SAARC summit scheduled in Islamabad in November 2016 after terror attacks in Kashmir.
Some experts claim India’s more engagements with BIMSTEC are aimed at isolation of Pakistan. This may be correct up to certain extent because Pakistan has not till date stopped its cross border terrorism program as well as Pakistan is enabling China to disturb the balance of power in South Asia and India Ocean region. But engagements with BIMSTEC are not just about isolating Pakistan but it’s much more. It should be seen in the context of India’s commitment to its “Act East” policy. Without a strong outreach to BIMSTEC member states, India’s attempts at achieving its Act East policy goals will lack momentum. Smaller members too stand to benefit from the opening up of markets in India and BIMSTEC.
There are strategic motivations as well behind India’s growing interest in BIMSTEC. China’s influence and presence in India’s neighbourhood has grown enormously on account of BRI initiatives. Debt burdens have forced India’s neighbours to hand over assets to China. China under its BRI initiative and String of Pearls policy is strengthening its base in Indian Ocean region. China has acquired many bases from Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan. This is directly going to have repercussions on India’s security and strategic aspect. It will affect India’s presence in Indian Ocean.
At the very outset of his second term, PM Modi has clearly indicated he is serious about the foreign policy matters. By appointing Mr S. Jaishankar as MEA he has infused professionalism in his quest. At the same PM Modi has clearly indicated the pro active role of India in Indian Ocean region particularly in relation to China’s adventures. This is clear message for other world leaders also about India’s perspective about its position in changing world order.
(The author is J&K based Strategic and political analyst)
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