Prof Ashwani Mahajan
After the brutal killing of 26 Indians by Pakistan and Pakistan-backed terrorists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, India has kept 65 years old Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, under abeyance, along with several other measures. The Indian government has said that until Pakistan ‘credibly and irreversibly’ ends cross-border terrorism, this treaty will remain suspended.
It is worth noting that the Indus Water Treaty was inked between India and Pakistan on 19 September 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank. This treaty was about the use of the water of the Indus and its tributaries by both the countries. According to this treaty, India controls the water of the eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej), whose average annual flow is 41 billion cubic meters, while Pakistan has control over the western rivers (Indus, Chenab and Jhelum), whose average annual flow is 99 billion cubic meters. India has limited rights over the western rivers and can use these rivers (Indus, Chenab and Jhelum) for limited irrigation, power generation, navigation and fisheries purposes.
Since all these rivers originate from within Indian territory, India naturally has control over them. Due to the Indus Water Treaty, the western rivers continued to flow into Pakistan without any obstruction, which remained the main source of water supply for Pakistan. This water treaty continued uninterrupted for about 65 years from 1960 till now. However, during this time, India-Pakistan relations were never cordial and during this time two major wars of 1965 and 1972 also took place between these countries. Apart from this, Pakistan deceitfully occupied Kargil in the mid of the year 1999, which was later flushed out by India. Not only this, for a long time, Pakistan has been engaging in terrorist activities and kept promoting terror activities in India; and an undeclared war was going on from its side. But despite all this, the Indus Water Treaty continued uninterrupted. The success of this treaty is considered one of the most important water sharing efforts at the global level. But now that India has decided to put an end to the Indus Water Treaty, the question arises that what will be the impact of the end of this treaty on the economy and people of Pakistan?
Pakistan’s crisis
It is important to understand that Pakistan is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world today, where the per capita water availability is not only meager, but is also continuously decreasing. Pakistan also has very little water storage capacity. 93 percent of the water received due to the Indus Water Treaty is used for irrigation. Wheat, rice, sugarcane and cotton are the main crops benefited from this treaty. Not getting water as per the Indus Water Treaty can deepen the water crisis in Pakistan, due to which agricultural productivity can decrease and Pakistan, which is already struggling with the scarcity of food products, may get trapped in serious crisis of food security. Pakistan’s major cities, Lahore, Karachi and Multan are dependent on the water available from the Indus Water Treaty for their drinking water supply.
Pakistan’s big hydroelectric power plants – Tarbela and Mangla, are fed by these rivers. Due to disruption in water supply and impact on power generation, Pakistan’s economy including industry and civic life may get crippled.
Whereas the Indus Water Treaty affects 25 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, treaty’s abeyance will not only lead to unemployment and agriculture crisis, but it may also cause worst economic crisis in Pakistan, which is already struggling with economic devastation.
It is worth noting that Pakistan has been grappling with a huge economic crisis for the last few decades, especially the last one decade. Food shortage and inflation are at their peak in Pakistan. This crisis may deepen further due to Indus Water Treaty’s abeyance. While India has been on the path of continuous progress in the last decades and India’s per capita income has increased from just 1553 US dollars in 2014 to 2480 US dollars in 2023, Pakistan’s per capita income during this period could reach only 1365 US dollars from 1266 US dollars. While in 2013, 1.71 Pakistani rupees were equal to one Indian rupee, now one Indian rupee is equals 3.30 Pakistani rupees. Pakistan’s currency has depreciated heavily in terms of US dollar, from 94.21 Pakistani rupees equal to one US dollar in December 2013 to 281 Pakistani rupees equal to one US dollar. Today Pakistan’s capacity to generate electricity is at a very low level. Forget about essential imports, Pakistan does not have any foreign currency even to repay its debts. Pakistan has borrowed from the International Monetary Fund, China and other countries many times and has exceeded all their limits.
Despite the termination of the Indus Water Treaty, although it will take some time to create infrastructure to actually stop water by diverting the flow of water to India’s usage, but when it is completed, Pakistan’s GDP will shrink further due to a major impact on Pakistan’s agriculture, power generation and urban water supply. All the diplomatic and strategic efforts made by India to stop the terrorism supported by the Pakistani government have not been completely successful till now; but the people of Pakistan, already suffering from economic distress, will not be able to bear the brunt of the termination of the Indus Water Treaty. In such a situation, it can be hoped that the pressure of the people will perhaps compel the Pakistani rulers to mend their ways.
The truth is that India never really intended to stop water supplies, against the interests of Pakistani people, but killing of innocent civilians and terrorism cannot be tolerated either. India’s aim is to build the capacity to stop this water. The Indian government’s announcement to put Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, is probably for this purpose, so that this makes Pakistan to shun terrorism.
Global efforts
After the brutal, inhuman and cowardly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, there is anger against this despicable act not only in India but in the entire world. In the last few days, various heads of state and government have contacted the Prime Minister and not only condemned this incident, but also assured all possible help to deal with it.
It is worth noting that earlier, due to Pakistan’s involvement in terrorism, it was kept in the ‘grey’ list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Today, there is a need for the Indian government to create pressure at the international level on the basis of all evidences and get Pakistan declared a terrorist country at the global level. In this regard, it is necessary to include Pakistan in the ‘grey’ list of FATF as before. It is notable that since Pakistan has been at the mercy of international financial agencies, in the past when Pakistan was included in the FATF’s ‘grey’ list, it had contained it’s cross border terrorist activities in Kashmir to a large extent.
(The author is Ex-Professor, PGDAV College, University of Delhi)
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