Harsha Kakar
Every policy adopted by the Government of Pakistan has an Indian bias, whether it be economic, foreign, defence or even home. It sees the Indian ghost in every nook and corner of the country. Every bomb blast, terrorist strike or even a border clash with Afghanistan is considered as Indian instigated. Indian RAW has assumed the proportion of the legendary ‘Gabbar’ of Sholay, responsible for every ill in the country. The way it is being blamed has made it almost legendary. Pak’s former interior minister went to the extent when he stated that the book written by Raymond Davis, the ex-CIA agent imprisoned in Pak, was sponsored by RAW.
His abduction from Iran, subsequent imprisonment and fake trial, Kulbhushan Jadhav has provided the Pak army an opportunity to seemingly convince its population of Indian involvement in every terror strike in the country. Regular release of forced confessions under torture, enables it to continue building an anti-India hype by blaming it for all activities, which it itself failed to control. It knows that by permitting counsellor access, its lies would be exposed and fake confession videos would become redundant, thus continuous denials.
This Indian phobia within the nation, more so with the deep state than with the government, has damaged the country immensely. Its foreign policy towards the region has an Indian bias, thus creating more enemies than friends. Its major neighbours, Afghanistan and Iran, in addition to India, are no longer allies. Its relations with its traditional support base is also on a roller coaster ride. Most distrust Pak.
Its policy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts seems to be running into continuous roadblocks as India checkmates its every move. Its proxies in India have failed to live upto their expectations as they are being slowlyisolated and may possibly even be incarcerated, as the government cracks down on its Hawala funding. The militancy and protests are limited in nature and remain within just four districts, being more media hypes than reality.
Its sole aim in Afghanistan is to reduce Indian influence, compelling it to continue its unstinted support to the Taliban and Haqqani network. Its fake attempts at seeking to broker peace, by hoping to bring the Taliban into the government has only backfired at every stage. This has even impacted its relations with the US as the terror groups it supports, targets US military and is compelling them to enhance deployment. Afghanistan is today a sworn enemy of Pak. The nation which it considered its backyard is anything but that, solely because Pak has viewed it with an Indian prism.
Pak also considered Iran as its friend and felt it could bank on it, however Indian proximity to the nation has unnerved the deep state. Indian involvement inbuilding the Chabahar port and developing an axis to bypass Pak in trading with central Asia has added to its insecurities. In Pak eyes, Iran with an operational Chabahar port could become a hub for anti-Pak activities coordinated by Indian RAW, after all, Pak turns a corner and sees RAW. Its inability to control Sunni dominated anti-Iran groups has enhanced tensions along the border.
It is also threatened by growing Indian ties with the Middle east nations, whom it once considered as its closest allies. It is uncertain of their support in any future crises viz-a-viz in earlier times. Its foreign policy, dominated by the Indian prism has placed in a difficult spot in the middle east. It cannot reduce Indian influence and with the current crises over Qatar, it has limited choices. India can still walk the tight rope.
Its Afghanistan policy solely seeking to reduce Indian influence has made the US, once its largest provider of military hardware, turn away. Its nationals who headed anti-India terror groups and whom it considered as strategic assets are now being designated as global terrorists, its military repeatedly questioned for not curbing the Taliban and Haqqani network, its requests for pressurizing India for talks ignored and bills to designate it as a terror state being introduced in the US senate. Pak’s regular cries that it faces far worse terror strikes than most other nationsare completely ignored.
The US has already begun to downgrade its relations with Pak and has commenced a series of internal reviews to cut down its source of funding to the country. Ironically, while Pak seeks to downgrade Indian involvement in Afghanistan, the US seeks to enhance it. It states that only India is a trusted ally of Afghanistan. Pak’s India centric foreign policy has begun to bounce back.
Financially, due to its military imbalance with India, its share of defence spending increases, an action it can ill afford. A military controlled state, seeking near capability with India, Pak’s financial mess is solely because the army demands a larger share than a developing state can afford. It is convincing its people that siding with China is now the only alternative for economic survival. Thus, the CPEC is being billed as the saviour to the state, without the true facts on the impact of long term Chinese loans being projected.
Internally, its ISI, which gained prominence as the agency controlling anti-India groups has become the most powerful element in the country. It has provided sanctuary to terror group leaders, hence harming Pak’s international reputation. The very terror groups it supported, due to multiple factors turned against the state and now target them. The sectarian divide being forged by these groups will soon split the country. Anti-Pak terror groups and freedom struggle movements, mostly self-sustaining, are being blamed on India RAW. This blame compels their army to act brutally against them, only enhancing their desire for independence.
China is its sole supporter, provider and benefactor. In many ways, it is akin to North Korea, nuclear armed, a destabilizing nation in the region, surviving only on Chinese largesse. With time, it would become a Chinese province, unable to resist, subjugated in policy, solely due to ever increasing debt. It is aware that India and China have differences which would take decades prior to reconciliation. Till then competition and latent enmity would continue. Hence, it is a suitable ally. A clear example of an India prism foreign policy.
The Pak army needs an enemy to justify its survival, size and budget, hence it can never consider peace with India. It cannot reduce its force levels, as it needs to grab power and dominate national policies. This domineering attitude of the deep state has been the bane of the nation. It has created a hype over the years from which it cannot back down. It is in this situation today, solely because all its policies are seen through an Indian prism.
India has grown well beyond Pak. It is a nation sought the world over. It is an economic giant and a military power. If Pak desires to grow, it must shed its India bias and look ahead, failing which it could soon become an international pariah.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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