Brig Vijay Sagar Dheman
“No mediation on J&K. It is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan”. This, delirious pronouncement after Trump – Modi informal meet on the side lines of G7 meet in France, has rattled the Pak PM. He has described this audacious act by Modi as “Historic Blunder” and qualified by saying that “Azadi for Kashmir” is round the corner. No matter what the Pak PM says or believes or wants his political or national constituency to believe, there is no doubt that Indian establishment definitely needs to carry out an in-depth analysis and prepare a circumstantiated response to the unpredictable behaviour of Pak establishment read Army.
In his reaction on national TV, the Pak PM started with his usual rant of nuclear bogey threatening the disastrous consequences for the whole world. He may well do his homework to see the past incidents including the Kargil war fiasco and try to reassess his perceived consequences and possible international reaction from such a foolhardy (mis)adventure. He could be putting pressure on US President for Pak share of pie considering that US President sees role of Pakistan in his Afghanistan pull outwhich was one of the points in his election manifesto in 2016 US Presidential elections.
It is difficult to believe that Pak PM actually overestimates US dependency on Taliban leverage in the hands of Pakistan, given the fact that for establishment of peace in Afghanistan, there are numerous players to be tackled to ensure respectable exit of US forces. Besides, the Afghan establishment is at a tangent with Pak Army’s action of excessive shelling of its areas. The erstwhile and ongoing limited engagement of Pak army in adjoining areas of Afghanistan coupled with the brutalities committed in own areas of North Waziristan , Khyber Pakhtunwa and Baltistan etc, take away much of the sting out of Pak influence in the region . Recent petition by Afghanistan to United Nations Security Council against Pakistan Army bears testimony to this effect.
It is also pertinent to note that in Afghanistan, notwithstanding Pak leverage of Taliban which US wants for its honourable exit, US also need India there to counter China’s BRI initiative (CPEC in Pakistan occupied Kashmir). That is the reason despite severe stalemate between US and Iran and sanctions regime against Iran and its allies, US has not asked India to wind up its projects in Chabahar Port and its linkages with International North South trade Corridor (INSTAC) giving sea access to Afghan territory and linking it with central Asia and Europe.
It is hard to believe that Pak establishment does not recognise the business type language/ orientation of US President who is hard bargainer, when it comes to profits read national interests of USA. Under this scenario, statements by Pak PM appear to be political realticking with gullible populace of Pakistan.
The entire process of blitzKrieg of integrating J&K state with India has been pushed by Pak PM as rise of fascist forces i.e RSS to destroy the Muslim populace. One wonders if he has forgotten Pakistan’s religious sabre rattling of “Ghazwa-e-Hind”, “Nizam-e- Mustafa”, “Bleed India by Thousand Cuts”, “Op Topac” and many such orations emanating from Pak soil ever since independence. One wonders, that in the backdrop of religious radicalisation perpetrated by Pakistan on Indian soil, how he is rating Indians as fascists and religious bigots.Is Pak PM trying to address the Muslim electorate at home, his masters in the Army or trying to save his leadership tag in Islamic world?
The Pak has gone all out to tell the ‘power centres in Pakistan that be’ that they have been wronged and UN resolutions have been hurt. However, Pakistan refuses to acknowledge that UN resolutions couldn’t be implemented due to non-adherence of withdrawal of Pak Army from Pak occupied Kashmir. Nevertheless, they are redundant now post Shimla Agreement 1971 and Lahore Declaration 1999. Pak PM fails to understand the United Nations Security Council did have a meet on 16 Aug 19, to discuss Kashmir but refused to endorse anything in favour of Pakistan. All members favoured bilateralism whole heartedly less China which agreed to bilateralism half-heartedly. Pak sponsored protests in front of Indian Embassies on 15 Aug world over, turned ugly and this act sponsored by Pakis turned to be symbolic shadow of rogue society and invited stringent backlash andcondemnation from all and sundry. The so called Pak friends in Islamic World too refused to endorse their stand. OIC refused to give even a statement in favour of Pak. At the same time, Pak’s trusted friend UAE and Bahrain were honouring Modi with their respective country’s highest awards. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Yemen and even Maldives advised Pak to accept bilateralism. Desperation has now manifested in terms of Pakistan Human Rights Minister Shireen Mazaari writing about Human Rights abuse in Kashmir on 26 Aug.
This obvious helplessness displayed by Pak establishment is also on account of the recent down gradation of ranking by Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Asia Pacific Chapter. The matter will be discussed in a couple of months in FATF HQ wherein Pak is under tremendous pressure to prove that it had adequately tried to eliminate terrorists from its soil. This, coupled with “No Nonsense Attitude” of International Monetary Fund and other world financial bodies, will force Pak into financial chaos specially when the fiscal deficit in Pak is all time high, Pak Rupee is at an all-time low, industry production is at lowest ebb, there is no money to pay Chinese interests/ debts on CPEC and foreign exchange reserves staring at below one billion dollar mark.
Pakistan is now under severe pressure to pay back interest /capital on loans from China in CPEC project. There are fair no of voices in Pakistan who can see Pakistan approaching the same fate as Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Besides, China too is under too much of pressure NOT to side Pakistan on its theory of “atrocities in Kashmir by Indian establishment” as China, itself, is under world microscopic scanner due to the happenings in Hong Kong, treatment of Muslims Turkic Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang and shades of human rights violations in Tibet and Taipai .
Presently, Indian intelligence agencies have reported that JeM cadre from Pakistan are trying to infiltrate from Sir lanka into Kerala and Tamil Nadu .Rohingyacadres trained and supported by JeM are also on the prowl to enter from Bangla Desh into India .There is a spurt in border shelling presumably to facilitate infiltration of radical state/non state actors in guise to engineer a major incident anywhere in India. On 26 Aug, even Naval Chief briefed the country regarding his effort to guard Indian coast, onshore and offshore assets against a possible attack from under water wing of JeM which is being trained to carry out underwater operations/disruptions duly transported by Pak submarines.
Under the circumstances, India needs to evaluate the situation very carefully and factor in all kinds of possible logical/illogical and idiosychronotic reactions which may emanate from the Pak establishment.
India needs to be very careful about terrorists engineering another Pulwama leading to likely surgical strike by India.Pakistan would espouse this kind of situation to discredit India and try and convince the world that India is the aggressor and Pakistan the victim. India needs to be careful in containing the covert/ overt ops by radicalised Pak sympathisers to ensure Right to Life and Peace for common inhabitants of J&K. We need to be very careful to avoid any outrageous action while retaining full composure as at the moment,India is riding a diplomatic, economic, military and logical moral high. A clear headed and prudent approach (‘HOSH’) must be maintained while being fully proactive to contain any hostile provocation from Pakistan. It could even be a major IED attack/grotesque mutilation or even a full blown air attack leading to a possible full-fledged war covertly assisted/abetted by China.
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