Col J P Singh, Retd
Meeting between Indian premier Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping on the sidelines of BRICS Summit in Brazil is considered as a grand event. Nirmala Sitaraman, MOS Commerce, accompanying the premier stated that lot of ‘goodwill’ was generated during this meeting which can be seen from the fact that meeting scheduled for 40 minutes lasted for 80 minutes. Xi Jinping lauded the meeting by saying that “when China and India meet, the world watches”. This statement signifies the focus the two countries attract the world over. The world sees China as hegemonic and India as ameliorator. Narendra Modi is seen as a popular, powerful and charismatic leader. Xi is seen as reformist. The world leaders see both countries on the rise and wish to engage with both the leaders due to their friendly foreign policies. That is why world watched when Modi and Xi meet in Brazil. Xi has shown great liking for Modi and pledged stronger ties with India in his first meeting with Indian premier. He invited Modi to Beijing for the APEC (Asia Pacific) Summit in November and accepted Modi’s invitation. Briefing the journalists, Syed Akbaruddin, MEA spokesperson said, “This is an important invitation because this is the first time India has been invited in an APEC meeting. We think it is a significant gesture” Xi also invited India to join the ‘Asian Investment Bank’ as a founding member.
China is a country which world dreads today for muscle flexing and threatening international trade through South China Sea. In Asia, the rise of China and its territorial disputes with its neighbours has raised concerns to the extent that Europe’s past could as well become Asia’s future. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has equated recent China – Japan tensions with British – German rivalry prior World War 1. This statement was in the backdrop of Chinese and Japanese vessels entering into direct confrontation in South China Sea over contested Senkaku Islands. China has remarkably enhanced her defence budget, (boosted by 12.2 % from 114 billions to 132 billions) amid rising tensions with Japan. Our relationship with China is also rooted in geopolitics. Our borders are unresolved. New Delhi blames China of occupying 38,000 sq kms of Indian territory while Beijing lays claims over 90, 000 sq kms of land in Arunachal Pradesh. The border issue led to an ignominious war in 1962. There are frequent cross border intrusions although no armed clashes have taken place over the years. Border dispute mechanism is firmly in place. Last year new Chinese premier Li selected India as his first destination for a summit meeting and bid for promotion of trade and culture. Hence there is very strong evidence that peace on the borders will sustain while the bilateral trade flourishes. Currently India and China are maintaining good momentum of bilateral relations. The positivity from top leaders meeting augurs well for strengthening political and economic ties. Yet there are fears from China’s spectacular rise as economic and military power although China asserts that it has never waged a war of aggression to occupy an inch of land of other countries but continues to defy talks on Tibet. Narendra Modi had taken a stringent position on Chinese incursions during his electioneering. All this put together perverts our thinking about China. American philosopher S. George has said, “those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it”. In a media interview China’s President Xi Jinping said, “The Chinese people love peace. It is not in the genes of Chinese nation to invade other countries or seek world hegemony”. This statement will be studied by scholars widely. Luckily the current Chinese leadership does not perceive war as means for attaining super power status thus providing a fair play field for the promotion of trade which works out in India’s interest.
If Chinese rise is peaceful, our bilateral relations will surely move in a positive direction. Hence India need not be wary of Chinese intentions. Very few Indians may be aware of Chinese history and the history of our border dispute. I am not, nor even of my own country. But I am confident that Prime Minister Modi understands China better than his contemporaries. Despite all the hiccups, China is redefining its relationship with India today. Flourishing bilateral relations benefit India immensely. Therefore we should harness the opportunity, learn all about China and learn the Chinese language which shall promote people to people contact so important for strengthening relations.
China is India’s greatest trading partner. Our combined trade runs into over 60 billions per year. But the trade deficit is huge. Two leaders decided to work together to reduce trade deficit and create an atmosphere of trust and mutual growth. Our premier conveyed India’s desire to have peace on the borders while two nations work together for mutual growth. It is high time India manages its relations with China that way. Two leaders also discussed bilateral, regional and global issues and scope for cooperation in regional and international affairs.
World considers India in race with China for regional leadership. India is not in race with China alone. Growing India is more in race with all growing countries of the world which will leverage China’s extraordinary rise. There are areas where China and India will continue to compete. They are (i) regional influence (ii) sharing of river waters (iii) dominance in Indian Ocean (iv) access to energy and resources in the sub-continent. Hence India must co-opt competition and cooperation (co-opetition) to extract maximum benefits from Chinese growth. Is China our friend or foe? We should judge it by the old saying “hold your friends close and the enemies closer”. Let Hindi Chini Bhai – Bhai be Hindi – Chini BUY BUY.
ASEAN nations are involved in a bruising territorial dispute with China. They are struggling to remain cohesive and relevant. Today even US is sailing into their waters and exhorting them to stand up to China. US direct involvement is seen as destabilising as is in Middle East. For many, India is seen as a natural balancer in this region. Today’s Asian leaders talk more of economic growth which they say will be seriously hampered if there are tensions in the region. Luckily Chinese present leadership is not guided by impulsive adventurism. They know the effects on economic front for pursuing military confrontation. There are substantial opportunities for India to benefit from China’s growth and ASEAN apprehensions. There is need to create opportunities for Chinese to start manufacturing in India rather than dumping their goods. China can also help us in developing our woeful infrastructure sector. We have no world class highways or terminals whereas China has plenty of them. However we are world class in Pharmaceutical, Textiles and IT industry. We need to make more efforts to crack the Chinese market for these portfolios and invite China in our infra sector.
We must be excessively curious about our neighbours if we have to emulate their successes and help them in their failures. Modi has already made a beginning by SAARC initiative followed by most impressive visits to Bhutan and Nepal. Earlier by considering China and Srilanka as hostile neighbours India has done a great disservice to itself. Since both the leaders have established good rapport and accepted each-other’s invitation, let us take full advantage of Modi’s image and China’s rise. Unfortunately past few years of policy paralysis and declining credibility of political leaders pushed us into cynicism and despair. Let us shed off cynicism and ride on hope. China has taken a big step in capturing world job market whereas young India is not seen much except in the Silicon Valley. Luckily Modi is riding on a galloping horse and will win a friendship race against China. President Xi has announced a growth target of 7.5 %. Similarly our budget is also reformist and growth oriented. Let the growing economies marry soon and give us a happy honeymoon.
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