Anil Anand
After remaining dormant for over a year of its existence the Delimitation Commission trusted with the task to reframe assembly constituencies in the fragmented Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir for holding elections has suddenly become active. The natural fallout of this activity with the panel in its wisdom writing to all 20 district authorities seeking details related to voters in terms of their numbers, topography and other details pertaining to the districts, is the speculation whether the elections are round the corner.
There is a strong reason giving rise to this speculation as the Commission’s one year term had expired in March 2021 without transacting any work leave aside visiting the Union Territory for an on-the-spot assessment. Three months after it was given one year extension, it has finally acted. So, there seems to be some contingency.
Although there were rumours galore before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation on June 7 last that he might announce restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, or further bifurcation of the existing Union Territory with full statehood for Jammu by adding some areas from adjoining Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, and carving two Union Territories in Kashmir one reserved for the displaced Kashmiri Pandit community. But none came true and rightly too.
A VIEW Point
These rumours certainly came in the shape of trial balloons and were not without a purpose. But little did those floating these ideas realize that the reorganization of the territory including creating of a new state was a cumbersome Constitutional process and that how could the PM focused on fighting the COVID-19 pandemic make this announcement in his address to the nation that too at this crucial juncture. They were proved wrong and very rightly Mr Modi focused on the pandemic situation.
As is proverbially said, “there can be no smoke without the fire”, the trial balloons could well be part of strategy attached to holding of elections in J and K if not carrying out a wholesale dissection of whatever remains of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. The election strategy seems to be unfolding with the Delimitation Commission suddenly realizing that it has a job to perform. To be fair to the Commission the Delimitation process particularly setting the time frame for the process to take off and finish is out and out a political decision. So, the panel’s inactivity is somehow justified as ostensibly the ruling dispensation could be waiting for the opportune time for the delimitation process to start. The time seems to have arrived.
There is a buzz that the delimitation process will now be completed speedily with possibility of holding elections at the earliest. Will the elections be held alongside the five states early next year including politically important Uttar Pradesh and neighbouring Himachal Pradesh and Punjab where BJP has high stakes? Or will elections to J and K UT assembly be a precursor to this round of polls?
As it is J and K being a special case, with or without the Article 370 and more in terms of being a political laboratory, there seems to be no political justification in clubbing the election with other states as it accrues no benefit to the ruling BJP at national levels. Clubbed with other states the UT will be only seen as “also ran the race”. Or at best the ruling dispensation can take credit for having started the democratic process without any scope for accruing electoral benefits.
Question arises whether there could be a linkage of electoral process in Jammu and Kashmir to the forthcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. It is imperative for BJP to win in the state with 80 Lok Sabha seats on road to 2024 Lok Sabha elections. There is no doubt that the BJP Government led by Yogi Adityanath has faced lot of flak on mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic situation and the rumblings in the state BJP are being felt loudly. There is also no doubt that the party would rely heavily on Hindutva agenda to cover the Yogi Government’ failings and counter anti-incumbency.
Incidentally, Lt Governor, Mr Manoj Sinha had been a political heavy weight in eastern Uttar Pradesh and was tipped to become chief minister of the state before being upstaged by Yogi Adityanath in sudden turn of events. Could holding an early election in Jammu and Kashmir under his presence and in the run up to Uttar Pradesh poll be coincidental?
Is there scope for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir to add new dimension to the Hindutva agenda in UP, and even in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa by holding early elections in the UT?
The party, though is facing criticism in its stronghold of Jammu region on various counts including failed healthcare structure to meet the pandemic challenge, is sure of retaining majority of seats in the region. Instead the BJP strategists are expecting to increase the tally with the help of new support base such as West Pakistan refugees (they were granted voting rights after abrogation of Article 370) and Gujjars and Bakerwals (Nomad) who have for the first time been given Schedule Tribe status, and some new found allies in Kashmir Valley. There is a buzz that some seats will be reserved for these groups following delimitation of constituencies.
After abrogation of Article 370 and 35 A, giving Jammu and Kashmir a Hindu chief minister is also part of BJP’s ideological agenda. Achieving such a goal under the watchful eye of Mr Sinha could be of some consequence for BJP’s prospects in Uttar Pradesh.
So, the significance of holding early elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
In the midst of reports of uneasy relations between Prime Minister Modi and the UP-Chief Minister and Congress leader from the state Mr Jitin Prasada joining the BJP without the latter’s presence, Jammu and Kashmir has the potential of performing yet another political experiment with an eye on UP elections.
Although he is neither a mass leader nor the one with good electoral record, Mr Prasada’s entry into BJP is part of the party’s desperation to attract the disgruntled Brahmin community back to its fold since the Yogi’s politics has been focused more on Thakur community and the Government is being described by his detractors as “Thakur raj”. Mr Prasada’s entry into BJP could have a discomforting effect on the Yogi and his supporters as it seeks to change the equation of the latter’s politics.
Under the circumstances holding an early election in J and K in quest of first Hindu chief minister, is an investment to the liking of BJP. Will it happen or not, only time will tell.
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