H C Katoch
Why population figures of census 2011 are not acceptable by people living in Jammu Division? What are the reasons that weigh in favour of rejection of this exercise conducted by the Census Commissioner of India?
It will not be fair to straightway reject or accept any situation, event or fact without assigning any authentic explanation or evidence to prove the charges/allegations.
An attempt has been made to link all the factual data and situations obtaining in the past that are related to the behaviour of population in these two regions of the state that would directly affect the results of delimitation. Let us view the background of this suspicion regarding doubts or unacceptability of figures of population census of 2011. To trace the background of population census, it is essential to know the background as to when the census of population of J&K started. It was 1941 when the first population census was conducted. There was no census in 1951 in the State and thus the figures of 1951 were interpolated between 1941 and 1961. Once the population count figures of 1961 are itself disputed which are being discussed in the paragraphs onwards, the interpolation thereby becomes doubtful. Let us examine how 1961 figures appear manipulated. In 1941, the population of Kashmir was 46.34% as against 53.66% of Jammu Division; this puts Jammu with 20.01 lacs souls and Kashmir with 17.29 lacs souls. Which gave an edge to Jammu over Kashmir, The other factor relates to the area of the erstwhile State of J&K now Union Territory. In 1941, the area of Jammu and Kashmir was 2.22 lac Sq. Kms out of which 54% was illegally handed over by Pakistan to China. This constituted 27% area of Kashmir and 18% area of Jammu. Thus, there was larger share of population excluded from Kashmir than Jammu in this process.
After 1941, census was conducted in 1961 and all manipulations were made in the results of this census when the census figures were declared in favour of Kashmir for which the then Census Commissioner of Jammu and Kashmir Mr Kamili who was a KAS officer belonging to Kashmir was said to had been scolded by then Chief Minister Bakshi Gulam Mohammed for showing population of Jammu much higher than Kashmir in the census report prepared by the Census Commissioner. Consequently manipulations in census figures were made under pressure in favour of Kashmir. Although there is no evidence to prove it, yet there was a whisper in those days on this topic and such whispers cannot be ignored when some facts appear to have been distorted. There is another factor that points to inclusion of the of Army personnel enblock stationed in Kashmir which weighs heavily for increased population count (which is a normal practice in the conduct of census). The point of voters numbers is not being taken into consideration because of its authenticity can be questioned for variety of reason. This became the base for census of 1981 as there was no census in 1971 due to war with Pakistan. Again in 1981, it was easy to follow the practice as the sole control of conducting census remained in the hands of the bureaucracy of Kashmir that is known for Kashmir centric interests. Again, there was no census in 1991 and the population was projected for 1991. With this approach, taking advantage of 1961 census as base, the other census conducted in 1981, 2001 and 2011 all carried the virus inducted in 1961. Hence this census, as base will deprive Jammu of its share of higher seat allocation as compared to Kashmir.
Let us examine other factual details to prove our hypothesis. Exodus of Kashmiri Hindus in 1991 reduced the population of Kashmir and increased it in Jammu with almost equal numbers.
This issue was raised in 2003 with L.K.Advaini the then Home Minister of India. Late Sh. Vaid Vishnu Datt Member Parliament asked me to accompany him to take up this issue with Home Minister in view of the criticism of population figures of 2001 in an article that was published in Daily Excelsior on the topic “ First Population Census” on 21.09.2003 (authored by me). Kasahatriya Varta published the article “Historical perspective of population count in J&K State on October 1, 2003 authored by me. Advani Ji directed us (Vaid Vishnu Datt and me) to meet Choudhary Vidya Sagar Roa, the then Minister of State for home who after discussions called Mr. Kakkar the then in the Ministry of home affairs looking after Northern States. Discussions were held with Mr Kakkar explaining our concern of population count. It was decided to hold a meeting for post enumeration check of 2%. In the meeting, Census Commissioner of India Mr. Bainthia was called to associate us for conduct of 2% post enumeration check of the population figures of 2001 census through some professional organisation. Unfortunately the date fixed for the meetings failed twice and this issue remained where it was. The authenticity of population census is required to be established if this sample size of post enumeration check certifies it. It is never done by any independent agency.
Further, I am narrating the analysis carried out that time on this issue with published population census data. The flaws in the population count are summarised in the following tables:-
Let us examine the decadal growth rate of two most affected Districts of Jammu and Srinagar in the form of absolute figures.
(Figures in lacs)
Population growth in decades from 1981-1991, 1991 -2001 & 1981 – 2001
Sl. Distt 1981-1991 1991-2001 1981-2001
No
1 Jammu 2.65 3.64 6.29
2 Srinagar 1.84 3.46 5.30
The above growth in absolute figures of population during 1981-1991 was higher in Jammu while in 1991-2001, population of Srinagar started touching the population of Jammu and that too, in the period of migration of Kasmiri Hindus. It exhibits that population in Srinagar has been shown comparatively higher even after exodus of over 3 lac souls of Kashmiri Hindus. The following arithmetical calculations presuming the migration/exodus of Hindus from Kashmir could be represented in the following table:-
(Population as should be) (Population as per census)
(1981-1991-2001 ) (1981-1991-2001)
Sl. Distt 1981 1991 2001 1981 1991 2001
No
1 Jammu 9.43 15.00 19.00 9.43 12.08 15.72
2 Srinagar 7.08 5.92 7.05 7.08 8.92 11.83
Different parameters are taken into consideration while arriving at the above figures. I) Migration of population from Kashmir & border areas to Jammu ii) Militancy affect giving rise to deaths and the marriageable age of population. This has led to the multiplier effect in decreasing the growth rate of population in Kashmir.
The manipulation in population figures is further corroborated when the growth rate in other Districts of Kashmir and Districts of Jammu is seen in relation to the ground realities. The most militancy hit Kupwara District showed growth rate of 26.34% to 27.51% variations between 1961 to 1991 in three decades and suddenly jumps to 38.59% in the decade of 1991-2001. In Baramulla, the growth rate in Baramulla rose from 25.89 % in1981-1991 to 32.70% in 1991-2001. In Srinagar its growth was from 26% in the decades 1961-1991 and jumped to 31.45% in 1991-2001. Contrary to this, the growth slided down in Jammu District from 41.25% in 1961-1971 to 22.48% in 1981-1991 In District Kathua the growth rate fell down from 33.37 in 1981-1991 to 20.91 in 1991-2001. The above analysis puts on record the clamour of Jammu region as justified. Anything done even after this, amounts to suppression of the public view. For this purpose, some convincing alternative is to be adopted which is on scientific lines and without any prejudice.
It is suggested to the Delimitation authorities at present is to draw smaller sample of households for the constituencies and work out the total population constituency-wise and see how much variations exists between the population of 2011 (projected for 2020) and now to avoid the controversies.
Even for census 2021, precautions are to be taken especially for 2% post enumeration check by an independent Agency of repute. This makes the census fool proof.
(The author is former Director Planning J&K Govt)
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