India in SCO

Col J P Singh
Central Asia is too vital to India. Indian had political and civilization links to Central Asia since long. Dogra rulers had extended Indian borders to Central Asia and established political and economic links. Illegal occupation of Gilgit-Baltistan by Pakistan, bilateral ties with Central Asian nations remained well below the historical parameters. SCO’s permanent membership cements the ancient ties. Central Asia is abundant in uranium and oil which India needs most. Prospects of meeting Indian energy needs and promotion of trade and commerce have grown greatly now. In the absence of viable road connectivity Indian goods to Russia and Central Asian Republics either moved through sea routes via Rotterdam to St. Petersburg or from Chinese ports of Qingdao, that takes over 50 days. Membership of SCO can one day open Pakistani land routes to India for trade with other member  nations. Hence let us note with pride that 9th day of June 2017 is a landmark day in Indian rise because on this day India becomes permanent member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). It must be celebrated and rejoiced because this day marks formal Indian involvement in all spheres of activities in the vast Eurasian region. India needed an opportunity to position itself firmly to stake its economic presence in Eurasia which so far is being infringed by other powers especially the rival China. Today India got that opportunity. It is no less achievement for India and even Pakistan which also makes an entry in the SCO.
Entry of India in SCO was a foregone conclusion because of its 1.25 Billion population and fastest growing economy. India has been a contentious addition because of Beijing’s reservations in the past but the way PM Modi thanked President Xi for helping Indian entry in the grouping suggests that Beijing had realised that including India is a way of drawing a fast growing economy into a trading network centered around China. It is known that from the very beginning Russia wanted India to be in SCO to add 1.25 billion people to a regional grouping that does not include US but Beijing had some reservations. Russian and Chinese divergent interests and potential economic value of Central Asian region had also initially stalled SCO’s expansion despite which Indian membership remained welcome because of its economic and demographic dividends. Finally the two days SCO summit at Astana in Kazakhstan in June 2017 granted India a permanent membership of the SCO.
With the admission of India and Pakistan, SCO will have 7 permanent members, 4 observers (Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mangolia), 6 dialogue partners & ASEAN, CIS (commonwealth of independent states), OIC (Organisation of Islamic Countries) and Turkmenistan as guest invitees. Hence SCO provides India a vast sphere of intimate engagements. With India and Pakistan having joined, SCO accounts for 70 % landmass of Eurasia and 40% of the world’s population. (Next dramatic entry in our prime minister’s mind is India’s admission in UN Security Council).
SCO emerged in 2001 as successor to Shanghai-5. Initially it  comprised of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Shanghai-5 was  established to rectify the borders between China and the new Central Asian Republics in the aftermath of USSR collapse. China and Russia amply used SCO platform as benchmark of evolving relations between themselves. Both had border and bilateral issues and divergent economic and strategic interests in Central Asia. Despite that they signed a treaty of ‘Good Neighborliness and Friendship Cooperation’. On the eve of its entry in SCO, Pak premier Nawaz Sharif mentioned about considering a 5 year peace and cooperation treaty among SCO grouping against terrorism and extremism. (I wonder why Nawaz Sharif didn’t talk of such treaty and India and Pakistan did not emulate these giant neighbours before and enter into such treaty). Entry of warring neighbours same day in the same group opens a window of opportunity to explore such possibilities.  After this opportunity, some good sense should prevail among hawks in both the countries to make them walk the talk.
The SCO, initially began as a forum to settle borders issues. It redefined its role in recent past despite Chinese and Russian vision not the same. While China looked at it as an economic grouping, Russia emphasized it’s political role and pushed for greater security cooperation rather than economic. Hence the grouping primarily remained centered on Central Asian security concerns often focusing on terrorism, separatism and extremism. Hence the focus was on military cooperation, intelligence sharing and counter terrorism among the member nations which augurs well for India in the future. President Xi said, “It will inject new impetus into the organisation’s all ranging cooperation”. Lot of differences in the region will now be resolved’. Though not a bilateral / trilateral platform, it is hoped that SCO platform will enable China to play the peace broker between India and Pakistan and resolve Sino-Indian border amicably. It is also hoped that Chinese One Belt One Road and CPEC ventures through POK may be reviewed. If Indian concerns are addressed in these infrastructure development initiatives, it will further boost Indian trade and commerce globally.
A far reaching advantage of India and Pakistan sharing a common platform at SCO will enable them to understand each other with wider vision, get over the hang over of animosity, allaying member nations fears that the differences between them can cloud the agenda of SCO. If at all the current standoff continues between them, there will be pressure on both from various quarters to harmonise bilateral relations for the overall well being of the Organisation. Modi’s one to one meeting with other leaders on the sidelines of the Summit augurs well for such pressure on Pakistan.
For China, military might rests on a strong economic base. Its global power stems from the ability to shape global markets. For India, the equation is different. Its economic growth rests on its military base. Indian fastest growing economy is hostage to the regional security. China sails its ships / nuclear powered submarines closer to Indian coast and flies its planes over disputed islands in South China Sea, but still uses its economic heft in disputes with neighbors more aptly. In this way it has managed to shape the behavior of Russia, Taiwan, Philippines and Japan by placing or removing barriers to trade.
China issues white paper on defence and security every year adding new dimensions to its military objectives whereas India remains bogged down with infiltrations, ceasefire violations,  and terror attacks here & there. As a result major part of our security forces and military might is committed on the frontiers and in the hinterland in other security duties affecting economy. The expanded SCO creates a space in which two most populous nations in the world and two warring nations of the region are there face to face. It lays the framework for a future security and economic space that could ease tensions in the region. For this reason India should engage with China more and not repeat the mistake it made earlier insulating itself and be the perpetual outsider. It will also be to the liking of China as seen in Modi-Xi meeting before the SCO Summit. Groupings where both India and Pakistan are included enable them to come out of their basic myopic bilateral contentious approach to a broader regional understanding. Should such understanding emerges from new developments, Chinese opposition to India’s admission into UN Security Council becomes thing of the past.
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