Prof. A N Sadhu.
The elections to the state Assembly have just begun and shall be completed in next one month’s time. Democratic process of holding elections every five years is a routine practice since independence and it is gratifying that it has deepened its roots in the country and contributed towards political stability and a vibrant democracy. The elections, this time, in our state are going to be very important for several reasons. Being held in the backdrop of national elections, these are not going to be just a routine exercise but would bring in a lot of thinking among the electorate and every voter shall remain exercised till he casts his ballot. During the last six months, the country has risen in its esteem in the global perspective and the world has started looking at India as a genuinely emerging economic giant capable of making an impact on the world polity. The electorate, in any part of the country, is aware of this new importance, that the country has attained in the recent months and it will have a strong bearing on the voting pattern in any part of the country.
Apart from the backdrop in which the elections are held in the state, these are going to be important for the reasons listed below.
Massive voter turn-out. This time, it is expected that a very large number of voters will exercise their franchise. The reasons may be different, but there appears to be a general awakening among the people that they need to exercise their democratic right of choosing a candidate of their choice so that they make their involvement , in the political process, in an effective manner. The massive participation of the electorate will also be there because of the withdrawal of the boycott call by the separatist leaders. Even otherwise, the voter turn-out has been increasing in the successive elections held in the state. The concern for ensuring a massive voter turn-out , this time, will engage the attention of political pandits who will carry out a detailed analysis of this phenomena as per their understanding and assessment.
Majority of young voters. A sizeable electorate, this time, shall comprise of young voters including those registered for the first time. As per the democratic profile of the country, 65 per cent population of the country is below the age of 38 years and it is reasonable to estimate that around the same percentage of young persons are there in the state as well. Because of spread of education, exposure to multimedia sources and wide spread awareness programmes, youth has become highly enlightened and tend to take independent decisions. Although it is difficult to believe that they have ,hundred per cent , liberated themselves from the orientation received from their elders, yet it is safe to assume that they will weigh their independent assessments more seriously and exercise their franchise accordingly. This is going to make the current elections very important. Youth of today is driven by the development considerations seeking to live a better quality of life and translate their dreams into realisation. Not that youth is neutral to the political concerns, but foremost in their mind should be an urge for an economic advancement to empower them for more effective bargaining at political level in the latter years. It is natural to expect a significant impact on the election results becauseof this large scale presence of youth in the electorate.
Multi-cornered contest. A considerable shift from almost a uni-polar system to bi-polar and now to multi-polar system is an important factor in these elections. There appears to be a clear shift from hegemonic politics to competitive politics in the state. This makes the current election scenario very interesting, on the one hand, and, far reaching , on the other. The election results may throw up several surprises and forming a coalition government may become a formidable task. The multi-party participation, in the elections indicates a moderation in the political thinking in some quarters as also a strong confrontation and clash of interest among the political rivals. The political scenario has become more complex and so confusing that even some senior leaders have felt compelled to desert their parties and seek refuge in other parties, of which these leaders have been the strong antagonists till recently. It does reflect on the character of political leaders and reveals their desperation not for the welfare of the people but for their own political gains. This is share political opportunism which does not do any good to the society. How will people respond to these opportunists shall also make the present election very important and revealing. Electorate has become very responsible and their choice will not get impacted by political gimmicks and by parroting of the beaten arguments by these politicians.
Changed Focus. In this election, for the first time, the focus of election manifestos has changed from political priorities to economic priorities. All parties have focussed on development issues rather than on political issues. This obviously manifests the impact of national elections which were fought on the issues of development and governance. The incumbency factor in the state elections is going to dent the prospects of coalition partners in a big way because of the anguish among the electorate for unsatisfactory governance. The political issues which dominated the manifestos of earlier elections have been put on the back burner and development issues highlighted to woo the young voters. How will the youth respond to these changes, will again make these elections very important.
New Political Scenario. With the participation of BJP ,in a big way, in these elections, a new political scenario has emerged in the state. The party is strongly advocating its mission 44+and appealing the voters to vote for a change and offer the party an opportunity of serving them with greater commitment and result oriented governance. During the last six months, the BJP government has definitely made an impression so far as the effective, transparent and result oriented governance is concerned. The Prime Minister himself has maintained a strong rapport with the common man and made the system very accountable by personally monitoring its working. That this will impact the electorate is also going to make the election very important. Some of the initiatives launched by the government to involve the society in the process of transforming the country along the socio- economic path, will also weigh with the voters particularly those who have a strong urge to become the catalysts of change and carry forward the mission of the PM to make the country more prosperous in the coming years. Whatever may be the results , the post-election scenario will be different than what it has been up till now. The over estimates as also the under estimatesmay not come true but these elections will definitely throw up a more competitive political scenario in the state.
Inflated Index of expectations. The electorate, particularly the youth has raised very high expectations from this election. The youth needs means of livelihood, the common man is itching for peace and security and the entrepreneurs want a hassle free environment to run their economic pursuits. With the changed political dispensation, there is a feeling among the people that they can find solution to all their problems if a new political arrangement emerges in the state after the election. Even the political parties that have remained at the helm of affairs for a long time feel sufficiently sensitised towards this aspect of the current election and that is why development issues have been given bold space in their manifestoes. The new political arrangement, whatever it might be, will have to pursue the development and welfare programmes more vigorously to meet the expectations of the people.
Future Implications. The elections of J&K-2014, will be interpreted in different ways. Experts will view these elections from different angles. Why did the separatist leaders withdraw the boycott call? They never did it on the earlier occasions. Some experts may consider it a tactical move to stall a particular political arrangement striking its roots in the state. The world may view it differently. Some experts may feel that winds of change are also sweeping the state of Jammu& Kashmir and a realisation has started dawning on different political classes to moderate the hard stances so as to move forward in expediting the resolution of vexed problems besides bringing greater affluence to the people of the state . Those of the contestants who will be the beneficiaries of the withdrawal call may have to blend their political stances to please their benefactors and it certainly will add new dimension to the post-election scenario in the state. J&K state is rightly called as mini-India because of its diversity, social, cultural and regional besides also the diverse political thought. The aspirations of youth may not match with those of their elders but that youth has a greater stake in the emerging scenario will certainly change the thinking as also the approach towards handling the concerns of the state in a more constructive manner. Some political players may play a greater role in the changed circumstances and that certainly will alter the political equations which may lead to the emergence of a new order, by and large acceptable to the people of the state. Whatever the election results, the political implications will have a far reaching influence on the future of the state.
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