Brij Bhardwaj
A woman in hurry, is an apt description of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who is trying to become a national player in Indian politics. She wants to make a quick jump from a regional party to a national party in matter of months, ready to take on BJP in the Lok Sabha poll in 2024. In case she gets even close to it, it would be a miracle. No one has done it so far in India.
The task of building a national party takes decades and most of the regional players who have tried to spread their wings in the past have found it a hard nut to crack. Only exception has been formation of Janata Dal in 1975, which was formed by merging many parties. Bhartiya Janata Party has taken decades to become a national party though it had the support of a group of right wing organisations like Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh and Vishwa Hindu Parishad .
Mamata Banerjee is trying to build a national party by taking support of regional parties and by persuading many in Congress Party who are unhappy with present leadership to join her in building a national alternative. She has to understand that there are no free lunches in politics. Congressmen unhappy with leadership of Gandhi family can join her if she can offer them position of power. She can get some elected to Rajya Sabha from West Bengal, but number is limited. Her ability to get them elected from their home states is limited as it takes a long time to build organisation at ground level.
As for regional parties joining hands with her there has to be incentives to do so. It can be an attractive position if there was a prospect of her coming to power at Center. Another factor could be her ability to attract support to improve prospects of regional parties. She does not bring any such advantage. Her biggest disadvantage is that in India to be a national party you have to be a force in Hindi speaking States which elects largest number of members to Lok Sabha.
Her current attempts were limited to states in North East and Goa only. Regional parties at best can get thirty to forty members elected to Lok Sabha while 100 to 150 members are required to become a alternative at Center. Regional parties were able to play a role in formation of Government at Center when Congress or BJP were able to get about 150 members elected to Lok Sabha and a majority could be built in Lok Sabha with help of regional parties.
Such a possibility does not exist so far. At best one can hope that BJP may find its strength reduced but will remain a major national party while Congress led UPA or group of regional parties fight for number two position. Congress Party with 20 per cent vote share and a major opponent in 200 seats of Lok Sabha has been on decline but no regional party can hope to get ever closer to it in 2024 Lok Sabha poll.
It is this harsh reality which is making majority in opposition ranks to argue that alternative to BJP at national level can not be built without participation of Congress. Leaders of Congress have to realise that they cannot assume leadership role automatically because of past glory or on basis of present strength and following. Congress is in power in Rajasthan , Punjab and Jharkhand, and are junior partners in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. They have little presence in major States of U.P., Bihar and West Bengal. As such the role for them at best will be of a senior partner in a national alliance. .
At present it looks there will be no national challenge to BJP as unity in opposition parties opposed to them looks difficult if not impossible. BJP will face challenge of regional parties in different States and formidable challenge in some but no united group to take them on. BJP has problems as management of economy and national challenges because of corona and border situation with China and Pakistan but there is no player other than Narendra Modi on the scene to manage it better.
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