Satwant Singh Rissam
The President rule has been extended in Jammu and Kashmir for another 6 months. This development has now furthered the uncertainty about the conduct of assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. In April this year, we all saw how the administration in the state showed its reluctance of holding assembly polls to the election commission of India in view of the upcoming tourist season and Amarnath yatra. The Election Commission also agreed to the plea put up by the administration and stated that the possibility of holding elections in the state would be explored only after the yatra is over. The questions are being raised over the intention of the administration in the state because Lok Sabha elections were conducted smoothly in Jammu and Kashmir. On one hand, the election commission is giving out signals that it will hold assembly elections in the state where as on the other side the extension of the president rule forces us to think that the elections in the state are not near.
Moreover, if we go by this new extension the Narendra Modi led Central Government appears not in a mood to end the counter-insurgency operations in Kashmir. This could also be because of the presumption that if the political system is restored too soon, by formation of a new political Government in the state, then Kashmir could again become the playground for the separatists. So security-wise, president’s rule suits the Central Government and the ideology of the BJP to uproot terrorism from the country. On the contrary, there are another segment of politicians who believe that the alienation of people of Kashmir could only be addressed by conducting the assembly elections as it would help to restore their confidence in the democratic process.
Such leaders also add that; air strikes in Balakot have shown no effect on terrorists as they are continuing in their activities; these regular gunfights between security forces and terrorists shouldn’t be the sole reason for delaying the elections or else we fall in the trap of the script writers of this unrest. In total, they suggest that holding of early assembly elections is the only step to restore the peace in the entire state. But I believe while taking any step in that direction, we should not forget that after 2014, Kashmir has witnessed a massive upsurge in terrorism and result of it was that for the first time in the state polling on Anantnag Lok Sabha seat was held in three phases.
The whole political system in the state has witnessed a big change and all political parties are facing entirely new situations. I personally feel that the Kashmir based parties must be worried about the extension of the Central rule in Jammu and Kashmir. This new extension must have reminded them of the President’s rule in the state from 1989 to 1996. If I talk of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it appears that PDP has lost its political ground to newly formed People’s United Front (which has already announced pre-poll alliance in Kashmir). Of all the political parties in Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) appears to be in the best situation. The political circumstances seem quite favourable for NC after it emerged victorious on all the three Lok Sabha seats. In addition to it, these days NC leaders in Jammu are showing confidence of forming next Government in Jammu and Kashmir on its own.
Interestingly, all the Jammu based parties have lost ground because of the new political rhetoric built by BJP in Jammu region which was also reflected in lok sabha results. Strangely, BJP has turned silent on the agenda of assembly elections. This entirely shows that it first wants to settle the law and order problem before the Assembly elections are held.
The new strategy adopted by BJP helps it in Jammu region. After the defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress leaders in Jammu region are yet not visible and have a long list of problems before them in order to re-strategize their political move in the state. Amid this desire for assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the Central Government is busy trying to build a consensus on implementing the idea of ‘one nation – one election’. As far as our state is concerned, it will be interesting to see how the idea of ‘one nation – one election’ would be implemented here. I feel there will arise many technical issues which will come in the way of holding simultaneous elections.
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