Dr Shabir Choudhry
With every passing day, the agenda of Beijing is becoming apparent. More and more countries, groups and individuals now feel that the Chinese investment is not transparent, as it is designed to advance their world agenda, and trap economically vulnerable countries in hefty loans.
In this context, Sino India relations are pivotal. It is clear that Pakistan has completely aligned itself with the interests of China, as Pakistan is becoming more reliant and dependent on Beijing.
However, despite massive investment from China, the desired progress on the projects related to the CPEC is not taking place because of political instability in Pakistan, security and some differences on the various matters.
Although China has many disputes with other countries, where hostilities can start anytime, still China, with some understanding with Pakistan, decided to give India a tough time in Ladakh, and in other areas along the Line of Actual Control.
At the beginning of 2020, both New Delhi and Beijing started their relations with a positive note by chalking out a number of programmes to commemorate 70 years of the ‘establishment of diplomatic relations between them’.
While this was going on, and all looked rosy, China was secretly finalising its military adventure in Ladakh to teach India a lesson; and ensure that India did not take any action in Gilgit Baltistan to endanger the CPEC or embarrass Pakistan, China’s close friend or a ‘client state’.
As far as the India policy makers are concerned they don’t trust designs of Islamabad and Beijing. They both can unite and take action against India for strategic and military gains.
It is interesting that on one hand, India is taking its seat as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council for a two-year term, on the other hand, relations with Pakistan and China are deteriorating.
India has consolidated their relationship with some Arab countries, and especially with the United States. However, this has come at some cost, as India’s relationship with Moscow is not as friendly as it used to be.
It must be noted that Russia is still a big player in international matters, and their position in international disputes cannot be underestimated. For the past two decades, both India and Russia had annual summits, however, in 2020, annual summits did not materialise, apparently due to Covid -19.
However, analysts feel it is not because of the Covid -19, but because of the frosty relations. Both New Delhi and Moscow playdown any speculations about differences on issues. Nevertheless, analysts are of the view that Russia had reservations about strong ties between Washington and New Delhi; and India’s active role in the ‘Quad’ strategic group, which consists of the United States, India, Australia and Japan.
But there were clear suggestions that Moscow had reservations over New Delhi playing an active role in the Indo-Pacific initiative. In view of Dr Subhash Kapila:
‘Russia-India relations today are marked by more strategic divergences than strategic convergences of yesteryears’.
Indian policy makers may feel that Russia, a one-time old friend and close ally is developing strategic and military relationships with China and Pakistan, whereas these two countries have antagonistic designs against India. New Delhi cannot digest, Russia having close military and strategic alliance with Pakistan, because of deep rooted hatred and antagonism between India and Pakistan.
However, the counter argument could be that India, a close friend and ally is moving away from Moscow, and developing close military and strategic alliances with the United States; and this new realignment can have adverse impact on the new round of the Great Power Game.
There are more than one reasons why India opposes the CPEC. One such reason is the encirclement of India by China and Pakistan. They believe that the port of Gwadar has military and strategic aspects, which propounds serious challenges to economic and security interests of India.
The CPEC goes through Gilgit Baltistan, which New Delhi claims is an ‘integral’ part of India. In other words, the CPEC runs through an area that is occupied by Pakistan, hence, the construction of the CPEC is illegal; and is designed to harm the Indian strategic, defence and economic interests.
In 2018, I interviewed one political and human rights activist from Xinjiang region, who fled for safety to Europe. We met in Geneva during the UN Human Rights Council Session, he said:
Is it not interesting that the CPEC starts from an occupied territory, Kashgar, he regards Xinjiang as a territory occupied by China by force. From the Chinese territory, it enters the Pakistani occupied territory, Gilgit Baltistan; then it enters another territory, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which is part of Pakistan, but is very restive, and people are denied their fundamental rights. The CPEC ends in Gwadar in Balochistan, which the local people say is also an occupied territory.
With the construction of the CPEC, China’s stand on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute has also changed. Not only Beijing’s narrative on Jammu and Kashmir is closer to Pakistani stand, but also China has decided to encroach more territory of Jammu and Kashmir by force, as they did in Ladakh. Also, they want to take more strategically important and mineral rich areas from Gilgit Baltistan, which is currently occupied by Pakistan. Unlike their strategy in Ladakh, they want to gain land from Pakistan by twisting their arm with the power of the debt trap.
Pakistan
The CPEC and One Belt One Road have many implications for the countries which are involved in these projects. Also there are repercussions for other countries who could be adversely affected by these projects.
The CPEC has strengthened the Sino Pakistan relations. Significance of that is increased defence and strategic cooperation, more supply of arms, technology and goods, which in view of some critics, is making Islamabad more dependent on Beijing. A vulnerable and heavily dependent Pakistan is not good for India, or for the peace and stability of South Asia.
Some analysts believe that Pakistan is gradually succumbing to the pressure and stratagem of China, as they cannot find a way out of the ‘debt trap’ of China. Increasingly thinking Pakistanis have started realising that Pakistan is in a quandary – on one hand there is political instability, and on the other hand their economy is still in shambles with no light at the end of the tunnel.
The pressure of the International Monetary Fund and deteriorating relationship with the countries of the Middle East is also making things difficult for Pakistan. However, if hundreds of thousands of people from the Middle East are sent back to Pakistan and Azad Kashmir, that will further exacerbate economic, social and political problems.
Apart from that, the CPEC projects have not yielded the desired results, and debt is very fast increasing with no signs of economic improvement. Despite lofty claims on the success of the CPEC projects, only thirty two projects have satisfactorily progressed. The other ninety projects identified for the CPEC have either stopped because of differences, or they are not progressing satisfactorily.
China may have used different subterfuge to trap other developing countries in the web of debts, however, it is becoming apparent that Pakistan is also in predicament because of the CPEC. Using the term of chess, they have been ‘checkmated’, or trapped. One expert said: ‘they are trapped’…’China is taking over Pakistan’s political, strategic autonomy with debt-trap ruse’.
A Pakistani think tank, Institute of Policy Reforms, which is affiliated with the Pakistan’s ruling party, PTI, is also of the opinion that the country has already got into a debt-trap. It cited the government’s failure to bring reforms and fiscal restraint that have made the situation a national security concern’.
Some analysts believe that China also has a role in Pakistani endeavours to employ non – state actors to be used against other countries, particularly India; and supporting violence and terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and in other Indian states in northeast. Whenever Pakistan gets in hot water because of this policy, China actively supports Pakistan and rescues them.
Pakistan gained great experience in coordination of non – state actors, and managing covert operations in the Afghan Jihad against Soviet Russia. After the Soviet Russia withdrew from Afghanistan, Pakistan used that experience and resources in Jammu and Kashmir to advance it’s foreign policy agenda.
Pakistan also has experience in establishing and controlling these non – state actors. They used the name of Islam and Jihad to establish a complex network of recruitment, fundraising, training and committing acts of violence and terrorism. Despite their apparent strong commitment to the Islamic cause, Pakistan on demands of China did not hesitate to thrash Uighur militants, who were also Muslims, and were fighting the Chinese occupation in name of Islam.
Gwadar
Gwadar has a ‘great strategic location between South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia at the mouth of the Persian Gulf’. It is just outside the Strait of Hormuz. Its strategic importance was not fully recognised by the countries of the region.
This small town of Gwadar was not even part of Pakistan in 1947. Gwadar was given to Oman as a gift by Khan of Kalat in 1783. This was the overseas territory of the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman at the time of the Partition of India in 1947.
This territory was purchased by the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroz Khan Noon in 1958. This is why the Pakistani critics say when the Pakistan army rules Pakistan, we lose territory and when civilians rule we add more areas to our territory.
Among the countries that speak against the CPEC and the development of Gwadar as a deep sea port with military and strategic significance, India surely stands out. However, is it not interesting that India had an opportunity to purchase Gwadar in 1958.
The Sultan of Oman had good relations with India, and he offered Nehru to purchase the territory for only $1 Million US dollars. India under Nehru, did not appreciate the strategic importance of Gwadar, and declined the offer.
On 8 September 1958, Feroz Khan Noon purchased Gwadar for Pakistan for the amount of $3 Million US dollars. This shows the vision of the leader. Gwadar was integrated with the Province of Balochistan in July 1970 as Gwadar district.
Just imagine if Nehru had purchased it, Gwadar as part of India, could have created many difficulties for Pakistan. One thing is sure, without Gwadar, there would have been no CPEC and friendship deeper than sea, higher than mountains and sweeter than honey, because China only extends a friendly hand when they know that they can take control of that hand if not control of the entire body.
Indian critics of Nehru call it a ‘strategic blunder’ of Nehru, as he could not foresee enormous benefits, which Gwadar was offering to India. Rajnikant Puranik, an Indian writer and analyst says:
India should have acquired it, so that it could have been used as a bargaining chip with Pakistan, vis – a -vis Kashmir and other matters’.
If the CPEC is the key component of the OBOR, China’s ambitious plan to control and influence the world economy, then the port of Gwadar has immense importance for the CPEC, and Sino Pakistan economic, strategic and defence stratagems.
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