Brij Bhardwaj
With just two weeks left before votes are cast, the polls for five State assemblies are becoming interesting and a close contest. To start with, pollsters suggested that Congress was ahead of BJP by 10 points in Chhattisgarh and six points in Madhya Pradesh, but now the same has been reduced to single digit only, which means the contest is too close to call. Reverse has happened in Rajasthan where BJP had a big lead but it has been considerably reduced.
The changes have happened for different reasons. In Madhya Pradesh BJP brought in its big guns including Prime Minister NarendraModi and Home Minister Amit Shah. In addition they have also fielded many members of LokSabha in the contest. Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh Shiv Raj Singh Chouhan against whom there was a lot of incumbency is no more being projected as future chief minister of State. Instead the party is projecting many faces and votes are sought only in the name of the Prime Minister and BJP.
Same strategy has been adopted in the case of Chhattisgarh, where former Chief Minister is in the contest but is not being projected as future Chief Minister. Another advantage for BJP has been that even though Chief Minister of the Congress party, Bhupesh Baghel is popular, members of outgoing Assembly are facing a lot of incumbency. Many of them have been dropped by the ruling party , but it has made the task of BJP easy and the two parties are running a close race and it is difficult to call the winner.
In the case of Rajasthan many problems facing BJP are partly a result of their decision not to project Vasundhra Raje as the future Chief Minister. She has been virtually sidelined and many of her supporters have been denied party nomination . Result is that the big lead BJP was enjoying has been reduced. At the same time outgoing Chief Minister Ashok Ghelot has also made some impact by announcing a number of schemes to benefit women , unemployed youth and farmers.
BJP on the other hand has brought in many members of Lok Sabha to contest Assembly seats. They have created a situation in which there could be a wide choice of candidates who could be projected as Chief Minister. According to reports the internal survey carried out by BJP has shown that BJP may win a majority even without projecting Vasundhra Raje as future Chief Minister. She has enjoyed a love-hate relationship with the Central leadership of BJP including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to some observers BJP is fighting State Assembly elections as a dress rehearsal for the Lok Sabha poll.
As for Mizoram, the contest is between BJP which has an alliance with a regional party and Congress . North East, which at one time was a Congress stronghold has taken a turn in favour of BJP in recent years. Congress is trying to regroup and fight but BJP with the support of its regional ally is ahead.
In the State of Telengana there is a triangular contest between regional party, Congress and BJP. At present the regional party, which led the movement for formation of a separate State, and Congress are poised for a close contest. Much will depend on how much BJP is able to cut into opposition votes which will benefit the regional party,which having been in power for a long time is facing incumbency . The results of State elections will have an impact on the national polls to be held in 2024. But if the voting trend in previous elections is accepted as a guide, one can not ignore the fact that voters make different choices in State polls and national polls.
The Congress party however, will improve its standing in the grouping of opposition parties, INDIA, in case it wins two or three polls out of five being held for State Assemblies.
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