Col J P Singh, Retd
General election, if not advanced, is still far away. Nevertheless the contours of the coming contest are becoming apparent. Main contest is going to be between the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP for which the process of electioneering has commenced vigorously. Narendra Modi of the BJP and Rahul Gandhi of the Congress are emerging as the main contender for the top post even though their parties have not declared them as prime ministerial candidates. Hence the contest is becoming more or less bipolar because the regional parties which at one time harboured the idea of revival of third front / formation of a Federal Front have given up the hope after Natish Kumar suddenly slipped into the Congress lap. Hence they have also reconciled to the bipolar reckoning waiting to play their politics after the election outcome. There is no regional party which can muster that large number of Lok Sabha seats, not even in UP, that it will be able to galvanise the formation of the third front or federal front govt at the centre. During the Nehru – Gandhi era we had almost unipolar contests, which later became multipolar and this time Indian politics is inching towards a bipolar contest at the national level.
When Congress goes hammer and tongs against Modi to make him a hate figure, in run up to the general election, he too has taken up the cudgels against the Congress. Hence every time Modi makes a statement, Congress spokespersons and ministers get jittery, call him names, over react to his statements and denounce him as divisive. Similarly when Congressmen speak against Modi, BJP reacts violently. That initiates a vigorous media debate. Of late Rahul Gandhi has instructed Congress leaders to take his clearance before debating against Modi. If that happens, BJP should also hold its horses to allow a clean election campaign debating issues on which the elections should be fought.
Every day when I wake up, my heart beats for our motherland which is being vandalized and victimised. Durga Shakti is punished for challenging the might of sand mafia and doing her duty sincerely. Durga’s fate is a familiar tale. Ashok Khemka was punished for foiling illegal Vadra land deals in Haryana and in Jaisalmer a SP is transferred for reopening criminal case of Congress MLA’s father. Like Khemka before Durga, bureaucrats with honesty and integrity will continue to suffer for not toeing the line of corrupt and criminal politicians. These events make it clear that honest and upright officers are being hounded out from investigating and law enforcing duties. It discourages talented young people joining civil services. As a law abiding senior citizen, I feels helpless. What will be the fate of an ordinary Indian when the govt officials are being outrageously treated by the politicians. I wonder whether or not people sense the rot and give a clear verdict in favour of those politicians who respect the law of the land and assist bureaucracy in serving the public. Let those politician win the election who can win the confidence of masses and under their leadership India wins back its glorious past, moves forward with genuine democracy, clean politics and good goveranance.
Since the formation of UPA II, Congress is on the decline. It is weaker in its one time strongest citadel Andhra because of its bifurcation and earlier split in the party. It is hardly there in UP, BIHAR, Orissa and in Tamil Nadu despite piggy backing the DMK. It is demoralised in Gujarat due to successive election defeats and decimated in Chattisgrah after Maoist attack. There is a credible incumbency against the UPA. Public is disillusioned with its performance. Bifurcation of Andhra has initiated a Domino’s effect leading to mass agitations in Assam and West Bengal . Demand for other smaller states is going to rise thereby effecting Congress prospects in those areas in the coming election. BJP is also on the decline after corruption charges against Yeddurappa came to light leading to his parting of ways and alliance split with JD(U). The third front / the federal front continues to be a non starter.
There are 350 seats in Hindi heartland where both the national parties have reckonable following. Hence they will be hotly contested by both besides the regional players. It is in these seats where the voters have to decide which party they want to lead the next coalition Government in the centre and whom they want to be their Prime Minister. Agenda of some of the regional parties is to prevent Modi’s entry in South Block whereas for some it is to unseat Congress from the centre even if it involves compromising on their ideologies. CPM and the JD(U) are openly against Modi whereas the others have not opened their cards as yet. But it is clear that Mayawati and Mulayam will be in different camps and so will be DMK and AIADMK. Trinamool Congress, TRS, TDP and Jagan Reddy may not go with the Congress amalgam as of now. Rest of the regional players will go with the larger grouping.
Modi’s campaign focus is on development. He is wooing voters with this mantra. Modi’s main narrative is UPA’s poor performance and disappointing record due to mega scams, rising inflation, blatant misgovernance, rampant corruption, insecurity and policy paralysis, apart from occasional references to its burqa clad secularism. These issues are catching the public imagination. Anna Hazare’s fast unto death for Lokpal Bill and against corruption has shown us that Government can be brought to the knees by the public. This movement pitched public against the UPA Government The Government succumbed. It assured early passage of the bill and promised reforms but failed to catch the threads where from the agitation left. This also goes against the Government. Therefore Modi’s scathing criticism of the govt for its failure on all fronts wins him public platitudes which cringes Congress.
Rahul had started with lot of hope and promise but lost the plot somewhere enroute. He was always missing or mute during serious national crises. Rahul has been focusing on youth vote bank and a placidly anxious electorate without offering them promising future. He led election campaigns in UP and Bihar but failed to deliver. But Modi is addressing angry and restless middle class voter, also the younger lots, who blame the Congress for killing India’s growth story. Modi is concentrating on contemporary society nurturing high hopes and aspiration that conventional leaders have not addressed. Modi is seen as no nonsense politician and a doer. He is expected to create a winning atmosphere for the BJP. He is being seen who can propel India to a new growth trajectory. After years of despair, once again there is renewed hope, a hope of change. If BJP gamble is right and its trump card works, Modi would not just win 2014 election but should structurally reorder Indian politics and ensure that not the BJP but India wins. If Rahul wins, the status quo may continue and changes, if any, may be slow because of Sonia Gandhi’s presence and controls.
We had opinion polls in the past suggesting that mandate 2014 will be fractured. The larger message is deepening despair of the voter with the ruling UPA and the alternative NDA. The big picture appears to be suggesting that while the Congress is tainted by scams and declining growth, no body seems to be sure that the conventional BJP will be any better alternative. That is sort of sentiment which is working on the mind of the voters. They are looking for an alternative. Hence the personalities are wooing them more than the parties and emerging as alternative. The coming contest seems to be veering around the American Presidential type of contest where Rahul or Modi will matter more than the Congress or the BJP. Contest between Rahul and Modi, both popular and acceptable among masses, will form such pattern in India. There is an opportunity to choose. Now it for the people to decide who is good for us. It is for the political parties to understand the popular aspirations which are staring at their faces.
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