Can ‘Third Front’ still take a shape?

Anil Anand
With Telengana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which came to power in Telangana in the recently held assembly elections with a landslide victory still keeping equidistance from both BJP-led NDA and any Congress-led formation, and similar being the expression of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo and Orissa chief minister Navin Patnaik just weeks before first phase of polling is held in the seven-phased Lok Sabha elections, a natural question arises if there still exists space for a ‘Third Front’.
The TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao is of the firm view that the regional parties are going to do well in this election and some other smaller but significant regional political outfits finding no space in either of the existing combines owing either to their political compulsions or unrealistic demands, there does exist a space for yet another alliance. The moot point is whether it can take shape in such a short span of time or not.
The chances of such a formation coming into being have brightened following breaking of talks between Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the fledgling Baripa Bahujan Mahasangh headed by Prakash Yashwant Amebedkar or Prakash Ambedkar who is popularly known as Balasheb Ambedkar in Maharashtra. Significantly, he is the grandson of Dr B R Ambedkar, the father of the Indian Constitution. This development holds further significance in the backdrop of fact that Prakash had already struck an understanding with the fiery Muslim leader Assadudin Owaisi’s Hyderabad centric All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). The common binding force between Prakash and Owaisi is their new found desire to have a pan-India outlook particularly Prakash, whose party base is among Scheduled Castes and OBC’s, who nurses a wish to replace BSP chief Mayawati as a front ranking Dalit leader. On the other hand Owaisi has been over the years trying to emerge as a leader of the Muslims though his attempts till date have not paid any dividend to him.
Despite this backdrop of Muslim-Backwards combine that the two are trying to present it is unlikely that the two can become fulcrum of a ‘Third Front’. Yes, with this significant backdrop they can become a trigger and subsequently an attraction for other parties either having a limited alliance with Congress or not part of any it’s led combination. There are already talks of Janata Dal (secular) of former Prime Minister H D Devegowda throwing its lot with them since the party has alliance with Congress only in Karnataka.
Out of TRS chief Rao and BJD president, Patnaik, the latter has been more active at the national level whereas the latter has persistently maintained a low profile and not shown any interest to move beyond beyond Orissa. This is despite the fact that he has been now chief minister of the state for consecutive three terms (15 years) and before that a Union Minister in the Atal Behairi Vajpayee Government. Rao due to his ambition to come to the national scene and Patnaik’s aversion to move to Delhi, the two can become a formidable combine to make ‘Third Front’ a reality.
The question also arises here if such a front would be a pre or post poll reality. The odds are more in favour of the first option as a post poll scenario can lead to other options if either the BJP falls short of majority or Congress emerges as a single-largest party.
A very recent statement of the TRS that most of the regional parties are confident of turning in a good performance in Lok Sabha elections is an indicator of the party’s inkling to look for a ‘Third Front’. It was preceded by an observation by Rao of keeping an equal distance from both Congress and BJP and stressing that there was no scope of his party joining the BJP-led front. In the event of the two parties failing to help form an alternative combine, the one chance that they fathom is to help form a Government of which neither the BJP nor the Congress is a part or support a non-Congress prime ministerial candidate.
Another important political party that holds similar view is the Andhra Pradesh based and recently formed YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). It is a breakaway group of the Congress is headed by Jagan Reddy who is the son of late state chief minister YS Reddy. Jagan’s arch rival in the state is the current chief minister and Telegu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu. A known Congress baiter he has till recently been part of the BJP-led NDA and in fact was convenor of this alliance during Vajpayee-era. Naidu recently quit NDA after a run-off with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has since mended fences with the Congress.
Due to these factor TRS and YSCRP have already come closer. In fact, both Rao and Jagan Reddy publically claim to be close friends. TRS has gone a step further and declared that it would support Reddy in the assembly elections which would be simultaneously held with Lok Sabha polls. In neighbouring Orissa where assembly elections are being held at the same time Rao- Reddy combine can make a common cause with BJD.
Dalit-Muslim combine represented by Owaisi and Ambedkar with Rao-Jagan Reddy- Patnaik line up becomes quite an impressive proposal. In some ways it primarily reflects a west-south-east combine which if conceived pose a serious challenge both to the BJP and Congress. At least an informal shape of such a combination coming before the elections could make it more viable in the post-poll scenario as it could provide a platform to all non-BJP non-Congress parties in the event of none of the two national political parties getting the majority to form Government. Ambedkar on his part has played his cards shrewdly by aligning with the AIMIM obsviously with the idea of getting Muslim-Dalit votes. His move caught both Congress and NCP napping with whom he was in talks at one point or the other. The two parties tried hard to get Prakash into their fold and thereby making him part of the Congress-NCP combine but failed.
Lately, Ambedkar’s decision to go it alone after failed talks with Congress and NCP, has opened new vistas for a ‘Third Front’ to take shape.
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