By Nitya Chakraborty
The results of the five assembly elections available on Monday May 4 give unmistakeable signs of further consolidation of the BJP pan India and fresh setbacks for the opposition INDIA Bloc. Two stalwarts of the opposition Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and M. K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu have been defeated. While in Bengal the BJP victory is overwhelming, in Tamil Nadu, it is the new entrant Tamil film star Vijay of TVK who has emerged as the leading player in the DMK’s electoral map by displacing the ruling DMK to the second position, thereby indicating the arrival of the third Dravidian party in the bipolar Tamil Nadu politics.
A close analysis reveals that the BJP has consolidated its continuing gains in Assam, has made inroads in Kerala by getting three seats in the assembly for the first time, has unseated the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee in Bengal and is benefitting from the displacement of M K Stalin. BJP can very well play its political game in Tamil Nadu through its NDA led by AIADMK which has got third position after TVK and DMK. That way, BJP is getting a big opportunity to enter Tamil Nadu politics in a big way by fishing in troubled waters since it is up to TVK supremo Vijay whom he will choose for ministry formation.
As regards the Congress, the party led UDF has got back Kerala in 2026 assembly elections. It was expected as the earlier local polls in January this year already showed the dominating trend of the Congress. It is a normal party changing in Kerala. The CPI(M) led LDF has been defeated but its organisational base is intact and the party along with the CPI is in a position to fight and get back power in the next elections. But the worry for the Congress and the Left in Kerala should be that BJP is on an upswing in the state. After getting one seat in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has got three seats in the assembly, as the latest trends show. The BJP is expected to make a big push in Kerala as a part of its southern offensive to increase its strength considerably before 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
The Congress fought in Bengal in all 294 seats with the objective of strengthening its own independent base. Though the party has done very poorly, the voting percentage will show the extent of the party presence in all constituencies. That will help the Party to assess its political strategy in the coming days to fight the ruling BJP government in the state of West Bengal. In Assam, the Congress has got around 25/26 seats as against BJP’s 98 as the trend shows. This was expected as the Congress high command failed miserably in forming a proper united front in Assam till the last moment. The BJP had its communalisation strategy and that worked. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is dependent on DMK. The outcome was not expected. Some state Congress leaders even wanted to talk to Vijay before the polls. It will be seen whether the Congress sticks to DMK or resort to some rethinking about alliance.
For BJP, the most ambitious achievement has been the ousting of the TMC government after its 15 years of rule in Bengal. BJP high command did everything to realise its goal to win over Banga after Anga and Kalinga – that is Bihar Odisha. Both the Prime Minister and Home Minister spent many days in Bengal for meetings, roadshows and strategy sessions. In the election history of India, in no other state, such a large scale transfer of officials took place and many of these were done on the basis of the list supplied by the BJP leaders. Both TMC government as also the party were under seize by the entire central government machinery before and during the elections.
Apart from incumbency, this central agencies role also played a significant role in the defeat of the TMC in the elections. Once the full details of voting figures come, it will be easier to analyse, but it is apparent that the extensive deletion of the voters under SIR adversely affected the TMC. The TMC’s own election machinery which made use of bogus voters in the last two elections, could not get dividends as a result of extensive patrolling and checking of the booths by the central forces. Certainly, there was a major consolidation of Hindu voters but that does not justify the rout of TMC in its South Bengal strongholds. Voting figures may show that there was some significant diversion of Muslim voters to the BJP candidates.
For TMC leadership, especially Mamata Banerjee, the challenge is massive. TMC’s latest strength of below 100 as against nearly double its figure by BJP, along with the BJP state leadership determined to cripple the TMC machinery may create serious internal tussles in Bengal in the post election days. The central forces are stationed for the next 60 days but there impartiality is under doubt. TMC has to sort out series of its own problems in the backdrop of this defeat. How Mamata Banerjee deals with all these issues, that is to be watched.
As regards the state CPI(M), the Party has got one seat, as the trends show. The Party contested 195 seats on its own. So fat till 3 PM, the voting trends show that the CPI(M) got 4.23 per cent of the votes. It may go up finally but that also can never cross 6 per cent. That way, there has been little turnaround in the last five years in terms of percentage. But some young candidates have shown promise. The CPI(M) has to make a thorough review of the results , assess the real factors and prepare the organization for a harder battle against the BJP run new government. The battle lines have been changed. Taking into account the political environment, the Left has to collaborate with the TMC in the coming months to fight the BJP which will be more authoritarian in Bengal.
INDIA Bloc has to convene immediately its meeting of the partners to review the election results and formulate a viable strategy for fighting the BJP and the Narendra Modi government. All the INDIA Bloc parties have been humbled by the massive power of the BJP and the central agencies. So they have to sort out their ego problem and join hands for the battle against the NDA and the Modi government. There are twists and turns in the country’s politics. This post assembly election is also such a bad turn for INDIA Bloc just as the post Lok Sabha election period was a bad patch temporarily for the BJP. The leaders of INDIA Bloc have to think that time is running out. If they do not join hands and fight the saffron with all determination, India as a nation, will be in peril. (IPA Service)
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