Anil Anand
The Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh has a motherly status so far as its political arm BJP is concerned. Notwithstanding occasional denials by the BJP quarters that RSS neither interferes nor sets the agenda for the party, the theatre of action in Bihar Assembly elections debunks this claim but with different connotations and dimensions.
It came as a rude shock to some and pleasant surprise for others when RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat advocated a review of the country’s Reservation policy in its entirety. In normal times it would have passed off with usual criticism from the Opposition quarters but happening in the midst of the all important elections in one of the most politically alive and sensitive state of the country, it has set an agenda and a debate.
Mr Bhagwat’s observation regarding need for a relook on Reservation Policy has become the theme and flavour of Bihar elections. It might mean different things to different people and political groups but he must be given credit for changing the discourse. And this change is more significant from the BJP’s point of view, which had to undergo a paradigm shift in its poll strategy just after two-phases of elections with three still to go.
From an absolutely Narendra Modi centric election campaign, the focus has been shifted to Reservation realted issues. It has watered down to repeated clarifications even by the Prime Minister and BJP chief Amit Shah, during their election rallies, that the party steadfastly supports continuation of Reservation policy. Ostensibly sensing trouble in the first two phases of election, the BJP has started throwing up names of some leaders belonging to Backward Classes as the probable chief ministerial candidates which in itself is a big and double shift from what the party stood before it went into elections.
The RSS chief seems to have floundered badly in reading the act called Bihar elections despite desperate moves by the outfit cadres and BJP leaders to defend him and deflect criticism on this count at least in public view. As a matter of fact the party camp in Bihar is totally unnerved by this development as it has provided the rival camp with a handle to polarise the Backward Class votes through creating a fear psychosis.
It was nothing short of a riot act which Mr Bhagwat read in the run up to the make or break elections in Bihar and can have serious repercussions in the Hindi hinterland of UP due to face election in near future. So the significance of his observations!
Howsoever dismissive the Sangh Parivar quarters might be about the issue, it is hard to believe that Bhagwat threw the gauntlet to his own political arm without a plan. He cannot be immature and naive at the same time. This is another matter that he miscued the shot probably in an act of overconfidence misconstruing that the Modi factor would ultimately be all pervading and decisive with consolidation of Upper caste votes.
If one believes that Mr Bhagwat’s move was meant at further consolidation of the BJP’s traditional upper class vote in the backdrop of Hardik Patel led Patidar reservation stir in Gujarat, it has proved counter-productive and resulted in reverse polarisation of Backward Class votes in Bihar. His reservation evaluation in fact was more focused to assuage the feelings of Hardik Patel and his influential community with a message to upper classes in Bihar. Indirectly, it was also meant to strengthen the RSS’s own bondage with the Upper classes which dominate the outfit cadres.
But the matrix has ended up in a mubble-jumble with Bihar challenge stiffening for the BJP.
Mr Bhagwat’s move also has another meaning from the BJP’s point of view with the central theme being the upper class votes behind his mind. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s ascendancy as a formidable leader with his appeal cutting across caste lines had created a spectre that some sections of the BJP’s traditional support base might look towards him. The theory behind this fear is that due to JDu’s decade long association with the BJP in running the Government, Mr Nitish must have been able to wean in some sections of the upper class voters as well.
The BJP insiders are not ready to buy the theory that Mr Bhagwat’s stress on re-evaluation of the Reservation policy had any serious meaning in broader terms. There has already been a focused emphasis on the emancipation of all encompassing Backward Classes and it was with this view that Mr Modi’s Backward caste status was tossed and some related cells were created or rejuvenated by Mr Shah much before Bihar elections or Mr Bhagwat’s views came, they maintain.
But this theory falls flat on their face with a review of the policy of allotment to tickets to candidates. The spirit of prior focus on Backward Class is totally missing in this as much less tickets have been given to Backward Classes with the Upper strata garnering the majority.
Rather than uniting the Upper classes Mr Bhagwat’s theory seem to be proving counterproductive. The BJP’s opposing ‘Mahaghatbandhan’ consisting of leaders of Mandal agitation have been using his views to their full benefit. The scare being created by them among the Backward Classes in the name of Reservation policy being in danger, has been aided and abetted by BSP supremo Ms Mayawati though she is not part of the anti-NDA alliance.
Whatever be the outcome of Bihar polls, a scenario has emerged which is to BJP’s dislike. The credit or discredit solely rests on Mr Bhagwat’s shoulders depending on the outcome. It has certainly caused a set back to the party even before the election process is complete and is being felt to be a major cause of worry for the BJP spurring them to float the names of some backward class leaders as Chief Ministerial nominees of the NDA.
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