Anil Gupta
The earlier kidnapping of an Indian priest and attack on the Consulate at Herat in Afghanistan and now the abduction of 40 Indians in Mosul, Iraq has thrown up a new security challenge for India. On a few previous occasions as well India has been confronted with similar challenges albeit at high seas when the Indian cargo vessels/ships or foreign ships with Indian crew were hijacked by the Somali sea pirates. The Indian security hierarchy so far has been concentrating on the threat from the borders or on the security of the sea lanes of communication (SLOC), vital for importing India’s energy needs, the maritime assets and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Indian Air Force has been clamouring since long to acquire the strategic reach.
It is quite obvious now that the threat to Indian citizens and her assets has increased manifold internationally due to emergence of the numerous radical extremist terrorist outfits, the splinter groups of once formidable al-Qaeda. The Indian diaspora has also got its foot fall almost everywhere and particularly in the red hot zones.
Assessment of Threat
The above referred threat from free radical non-state actors was hitherto fore confined to the Americans or citizens of the western world. The dreaded Sunni terrorist outfit Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has reportedly circulated a world map of envisaged Sunni Caliphate that includes part of India. The circulation of a deadly video exhorting the Indian Muslims to emulate their brothers in Syria and Iraq and wage a Jihad against India has added fuel to the fire. Certainly, India has also emerged as a potential target on the radar screens of the global jihadi groups. This has made the Indian citizens and assets abroad vulnerable.
The Mosul episode is only a tip of the iceberg and may test the resolve of the Modi Government. The real test would follow after the drawdown of the US and allied forces from Afghanistan at the end of this year. India has a lot at stake in Afghanistan in terms of huge investment and 3000-4000 Indians in Afghanistan that includes about 1000 Afghan Indians, construction and aid workers. If ISIS succeeds in Iraq, can Taliban be far behind in Afghanistan? Will they succeed like their counter parts in Iraq is the subject for a separate essay. Certainly, Iraqi Security Forces and the Afghan National Security Force cannot be put on the same pedestal. But, the Taliban backed by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi would form a potent threat and a force to reckon with. As an icing on the cake they enjoy full backing and support of Pakistan’s ISI.
The Response
* India needs to act swiftly to ward off this challenge and prepare to counter the emerging threat. As a first step the MEA must identify vulnerable Indian embassies and consulates and beef up their security. An exercise must be carried out to flag the potential trouble spots.
* The joint services Special Forces (SF) need to be integrated in this matrix. Capability building is the next logical step. Presently, the Indian Armed Forces do not have adequate Out of Area Operations (OOAO) capability. Need to build one. Well equipped, trained and highly motivated mission oriented task forces need to be employed to counter such threats. Negotiations and diplomacy of course play a major role. The task forces comprise of SF backed by dedicated lift (rotary or fixed wing) capability. These are surgical operations and need fine tuning to the minutest detail.
* The Indian Navy also needs to build similar capabilities to counter the threat at high seas.
* Contingency plans to evacuate the Indian citizens from the danger zone also need to be put in place.
* The intelligence and surveillance mechanism needs a thorough over haul. Apart from modernisation, we also need to put a number of spy satellites in orbit particularly over potential hot spots.
India no longer can afford to have an ostrich-like approach. If a nation dreams to be a super or regional power, it has to be prepared to face geopolitical realities and act to ward off multifarious threats. We, therefore, need to assess all possible contingencies and put pre-planned responses in place.
A nation may have the capability but lack the will to act. Fortunately, with the present Government in the saddle at Delhi, one hopes that India won’t be found wanting/dithering when it comes to taking such hard decisions in the national interest. No price is too heavy to pay when it comes to saving the honour and izzat of one’s nation.
(The author is former Brigadier)
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