Men, Matters & Memories
M L Kotru
If the Pandits’ exodus of the 1990s from Kashmir valley put a question mark over the existence of the beast called Kashmiryat, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s election campaign to wrest control of the State, mainly from the local parties, has added a totally new dimension to the communal divide in the disputed State, chunks of it under Pakistani control and some even with the Chinese.
Mind you, it is not easy for this reporter to make such a bald statement, given his strong Kashmiri roots and disregarding his now shaken belief in the existence of the aforesaid beast. Rarely in post-independence history of the former princely state have the communal lines been as severely drawn as during the present campaign now mercifully drawing to a close.
A photo finish is what many in the saffronite front have predicted. It may well be that, though, serious doubts persist. Never mind that, the Bharatiya, Janata Party has never ceased to gloat over its prospects in the State ever since the poll phenomenon in the rest of the country. The hero of that campaign, none other than Mr. Modi himself, put in a third appearance in the State for the campaign there last week, with some more on the cards. And to go by local BJP leaders’ enthusiasm, it may just be a matter of days for the party’s “dastar-bandi” in the State. I haven’t heard of a single BJP leader going for a less than plus 44 target which Modiji’s trusted colleague and the party president, Amit Shah had set as the goal to achieve.
Now, what’s the magic target about? Plus 44 makes for a majority in the State Assembly or at the very least giving the party a decisive say in the choice of the next Chief Minister. Ideally, and given all the manipulations leading up to the polling day -not to forget the devastation the unprecedented floods have caused in the valley – it may even turn out that some of the BJP’s rented candidates in the predominantly Muslim valley will enable it to name a man or woman of its choice to the top job in the State. In which case it could well be a valley Muslim of BJP’s choice, if not a Jammu Hindu, or, it may even choose a Ladakhi Buddhisit, if not a Kashmiri Pandit, to do the Muslims in the valley in the eye, as it were.
All of this may seem far -fetched to most yet possible, given the predominant anti-valley bias of the ruling party in Delhi. All that I have said may actually not come to pass. For, ground realities sometimes belie long cherished hopes or fears, if you will. And the reality, as I see it, may be that an arch separatist like Syed Ali Shah Geelani and the other Hurriyat leaders may choose not to issue the customary boycott call ,something they have unfailingly done ever since Geelani himself many, many polls ago chose not to contest.
Such a call would make a marked difference to the outcome apart from sending larger numbers of valley Muslims to the booths. A larger turnout in such a situation would be seen locally as a rebuff to Hindu communal forces of whom the BJP is seen the archpriest and whose candidates would stand at a disadvantage in case of heavier polling in the valley. It would significantly neutralise the expected larger presence of the migrant votes which are expected to make a difference to the outcome in four or five seats in the valley. The Kashmiri Pandit vote this time over has shown a marked increase. More migrants have obviously been persuaded to register themselves which in the final analysis is perhaps a good thing.
As I write polling has already taken place in15 constituencies in parts of the State and it would take a very daring man to make any predictions. But the truth is that even as plus 44 might have been seen as an innovative slogan it may turn out to be unachievable. There are other major notable mainstream forces in the State who one would ignore at his own peril.
Foremost among these is the Mufti Mohammad Sayeed-led People’s Democratic Party. On the face of it the PDP’s campaign spearheaded by the indefatigable Mehbooba Mufti has made a deep impact in the valley and in a few constituencies in Jammu as well.
The Mufti himself, a former Chief Minister, enjoys considerable popular support and indeed seems poised for a major win. Omar Abdullah’s National Conference had lost most of it its steam much before the campaign began; even otherwise the NC camp has been handicapped by the absence of the colourful Farooq Abdullah, hospitalized in the UK. The Mufti’s PDP, for the record, swept all three Lok Sabha seats in the valley earlier this year and there is no reason why his party should not repeat the showing to emerge as a strong contender for office.
I know I am treading on highly treacherous ground by making fraught predictions as the phased polling in the State has moved towards closure. May be its just wishful thinking. For the record both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress do figure in my list of mainstream but only as long as they don’t transplant their divisive politics on an already divided State. The Congress Party in the State has rarely shown any vision.
One would have expected the BJP to put something more meaningful on offer. It has instead opted in favour of putting on its traditional blinkers, even as it bravely attempts to look different; it had served notice of its intentions much before the polling commenced in the State. It may not have said it in so many words but it doesn’t accept the State being the only Muslim majority unit in the union. It promoted the idea of three distinct units comprising the State as Hindu majority Jammu, Muslim majority Valley and Buddhist majority Ladakh; it has also provided for the resettlement in three distinctly marked out areas of Kashmiri Pandits squeezed out of the valley in the 90s. Such ghettoisation of the Pandits on the face of it looks unworkable.
Equally objectionable would seem to be the high decibel demand for abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution. To undo this Article continues to be an article of faith with the party even when, for purposes of the ongoing poll, it has expressed its willingness to negotiate; what exactly is the hurry to do away with the Article when it already stands diluted in many aspects was never explained.
That said, one hopes the State will be allowed to settle down and work for the betterment of its people, in all the three regions. There is no ‘us’ and ‘them’ in the larger scheme of being Indians. The Centre should as a matter of fact go out of its way to give the entire State an infrastructure that ensures it’s all round development, its prosperity. Why Jammu and Kashmir alone. India cannot afford extravagances like religious, castiest and linguistic divides. Nor is there any pressing need either to assert Hindu supremacy, as the mother organization of the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh seems to desire.
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