Opposition Stands : Women Bill falls

By Poonam I Kaushish

 Last Friday was historic in more ways than one. First, the Modi-led NDA Government tasted its first defeat since taking office 2014. Two, the first time a Constitutional Amendment Bill collapsed in Lok Sabha since 2011. All by 54 votes.

The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill 2026 granting 33% reservation to women prior to 2029 elections was defeated after failing to secure the two-thirds majority required to pass a Constitutional change. It got 298 for and 230 against instead of the requisite 352. Primarily, as it was linked to the Delimitation Bill 2026 which would have mandated a fresh redrawing of constituency boundaries based on the 2011 census.

The Government proposed increasing Lok Sabha seats to 850 from 543 and correspondingly promised a 50% proportional increase in seats in States. But Opposition Parties due to strained ties and lack of trust quotient refused, instead accused Government of assault on the federal structure, resulting in the Delimitation Bill being withdrawn.

Predictably, Prime Minister Modi cast Opposition as anti-women accusing it of bhrun hatya (foeticide), paap and sazaa to claim sole ownership of women’s cause in his Address to the Nation Saturday. Coming in the thick of Assembly elections it deepened distrust and further shrunk space for any conversation on the way forward between Government-Opposition.

The trust deficit is so high that when Home Minister Shah said he would stall proceedings for an hour to bring an amendment increasing the number of seats by 50%, none bought his line. Bringing things to such a pass, that traditional methods of dispute resolution that helped keep the system going have completely broken down.

Of course, Modi Sarkar will use this defeat to lay claim to ‘owning’ the cause of women’s empowerment and add it to its repertoire of political-ideological projects. BJP ensured the debate centred around two things: immediate 33% reservation for women and population-based justice for voters.

Hindutva diehards will paint Opposition as obstructionist, always blocking people-centric policies and issues which uplift the poor from the morass of destitution and anti-women in particular. Of, how regional Parties always prioritize their own math over national reform.

Yet, Government cannot escape the Lok Sabha verdict and the lesson it holds for future: It’s failure to pass its own Bill exposes limits of governing by fiat, of pursuing transformative change without consultation with those across the aisle. Specifically, in the backdrop of its fraught record of institutional integrity. Remember numbers in Parliament are no substitute for trust.

For Opposition, this is a moment of realisation that when one stands united, speaks in one voice, holds together, forcefully articulating its concerns none can stop its forward trajectory. Pointedly, marking Government’s haste and inexplicable turnaround from its 2023 position on women quota by questioning its refusal to wait for data of the ongoing census, which will include caste numbers.

Most of all, it flagged the cloud of distrust on delimitation’s institutional mechanism, giving rise to apprehensions that the intricate balance between equity in representation and federal fairness would be disturbed. That States would be pitted against each other.

Pertinently, India Bloc was clear: The 131st Amendment sought to raise the Constitutional ceiling on Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 850 and delink implementation of the 2023 Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam  from the next census, effectively meaning no earlier than 2034 as the current census is on, and might take a few years to complete with a delimitation to follow.

Besides, it viewed the new Bills aiming to bring 33% quota into effect by 2029, through a delimitation exercise based on 2011 census would put on the front burner issues of regional disparity and caste calculus.

However, Opposition cannot afford to savour this victory for long. Stalling the Bill and winning the national argument are two different things. It needs to move fast and find the language not just to sidestep BJP’s trap, but also communicate to people why it opposed the Bill and what it proposes instead. As its political-electoral fortunes depend on this.

For regional satraps specifically TMC’s Mamata and DMK’s Stalin with State elections ongoing they must not fall into the trap of supporting women’s quota but fear seat redistribution harming their States, as this weakens a unified Opposition attack.  As BJP tom-toms credit for a historic reform. Since it failed, it will spend the next three years telling every woman, “We tried to give you power, but Congress and allies snatched it away.”

Recall, Parliament froze delimitation exercise in 1976 and 2001 amid fears amongst Southern States that the polity would become lopsided in favour of Northern States. Thereby, widening regional fault lines in the absence of cross-political consensus. The shadow of delimitation now looms large over Census 2027.

However, all is not lost. The Bill’s defeat is not a full stop to fulfilment of a dream called Naari Shakti, but a consequential pause. Even after the collapse of the Women Reservation Bill Parliament’s commitment backed by political consensus for women’s reservation stands enshrined in the 2023 law.

Importantly, as our polity moves forward it must not stoke spectres, like north vs south, peninsula vs heartland, navigate the thorny question of caste and find a formulation that unites rather than divides. What needs to be done to ensure integrity of the delimitation process? Above all, it must be institutionalised in good faith, not poisoned by a delimitation exercise the nation does not yet trust. This requires sagacity, good faith and patience across the board.

The Lok Sabha battle is over. The larger fight for women and polity, is not. The Government must learn its lesson from this defeat. It needs to change its conduct as Parliament’s high jinx bore the hallmarks of its reflexive, winner-takes-all style: As Executive of a fractious and argumentative democracy, its Government’s responsibility is to not merely table legislation but to navigate the concerns it legitimately stirs. In this case, there were apprehensions about a hasty delimitation reordering the political map and disturbing the delicate equilibrium between representation and federalism.

The ongoing elections will run their course, the poll dust will settle. But the key question raised need to be answered: How should the legislature be expanded to accommodate women’s reservation? Ultimately, BJP risks credibility erosion if implementation of women’s bill keeps slipping away. For Opposition it is its right to attack delay, but it is weakened by past ambiguity.

Either way, Naari Shakti is and will remain a volatile long term political issue especially as women constitute 50% population. Women’s reservation is a powerful idea whose time has come. —-INFA

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