Anil Anand
The Bihar assembly election-2020 is unique for more than one reason. First and foremost is the shift in status of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) always perceived to be rock solid, and the RJD-Congress-Left Greater Alliance or ‘Mahaghatbandhan’. What is this shift one is talking about? It is the NDA’s stability versus always until these elections, the instability of opposition combine whatever its nomenclature might have been.
Whatever be the outcome of the elections after counting of votes on November 10, the only thing crystal clear is that the ‘Mahaghatbandhan’ has stayed united with no sign of any cracks. The other clarity is the pronounced differences between the over a decade old allies the BJP and chief minister, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (JD-U) which were reflected on ideological and policy matters.
As the elections were drawing nearer to the third and final phase of polling, this pronouncement came in the form of Uttar Pradesh chief minister and BJP-NDA’s star campaigner, Yogi Aditya Nath and Mr Kumar finding themselves pitted against each other. It was by no means a good culmination of an election campaign for the ruling alliance as it was already facing the onslaught of a strong anti-incumbency. It is another matter that through clever machinations the BJP has to a great extent managed to divert the onslaught towards the chief minister, despite having enjoyed the fruits of power for nearly a decade with him.
The final showdown that bared the chinks in the NDA came when the Yogi while addressing a public meeting embarked on his favourite subject of minority bashing. He stirred the controversy when in an obvious reference to the minority community said that “all the infiltrators will be thrown out as Modiji has made arrangements for this.” This comment hit Mr Kumar hard where it hurt him the most and that is his carefully crafted image of carrying all sections of the society together.
As he set out addressing an election rally at the Muslim majority Kishanganj area bordering West Bengal, a visibly irritated Mr Kumar had no option but to pour scorn on the Yogi. He took the saffron clad BJP leader head-on through a stern rebuttal.
“Who does all this malicious campaigning? Who says all this faltu baat (nonsense)? Who will throw out people? No one dares do that. Everyone belongs to this country, everyone is Indian,” the Bihar Chief Minister thundered as he sensed the irreparable damage that the Yogi’s statement could do to the JD (U) interests in certain pockets such as Kishanganj, of the state.It is another matter that Mr Kumar did not name anyone in his speech but it was clear who his target was. The Yogi had talked about the new law-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) – that provides Indian citizenship for non-Muslim minorities from neighbouring Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan if they fled religious persecution and entered India before 2015.
The BJP embarked on immediate fire-fighting in Delhi also. In a bid to assuage Mr Kumar’s feelings and instil confidence among people, the BJP drafted Union Petroleum Minister, Dharmendra Pradhan to do the needful. He stated that “there is no question of Indian citizens leaving the country. But even globally, all nations have done the work of identifying their own citizens and foreigners living in their country. So, India is also taking the initiative recently to start a similar exercise.” Frankly speaking it was only a reiteration of BJP’s resolve.
This spat could not have come at a time for the NDA worst than when the final phase of polling focused on RJD-Congress stronghold was due to take place. It was in one of these areas that Mr Kumar was trying to make a dent in his arch-rivals bastion when the Yogi fired the salvo.
It is not that he made an off-the-cuff remark. It was a well thought of plan as he was pursuing the BJP’s core agenda to reach out to its core support base in the party’s bid to come out of Nitish’s shadow and be the leader in Government formation if the situation arose. It was but natural to hurt the chief minister as despite being in coalition for over a decade neither the core agenda nor the core support base of the BJP and JD(U)- read Nitish Kumar- is common.
This confrontation engineered by the BJP through the Yogi could cost Nitish dearly as he has already been pushed to the corner not only by is rival but friends such as BJP as well. It is with the active support of the BJP that he has emerged as the target of everything that went wrong with the BJP-JD (U) coalition government all these years. At the same time the Yogi’s commentary could help the saffron party consolidate its position in the groups at which his comment was targeted.
As the ‘Mahaghatbhandan’ is riding high and BJP with the indirect support of its ally in Delhi the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP) trying to consolidate its position, the question arises will the BJP in its old formation or a new one with LJSP be able to form the Government leaving Nitish high and dry? Or will the ‘Mahaghatbhandan’ be able to bring the change?
The two factors that would determine the fate of BJP and its supporting parties will be the Modi factor and secondly as to how the Paswans, the dominant community among the Scheduled Castes, will behave in the absence of Mr Ram Vilas Paswan. The ground reports suggest that the Modi factor still retains its charm though it has lost its sheen. The moot point is whether it would once again be able to attract voters cutting across religion and caste and beyond the party’s core support base or not.
The Paswan caste factor could influence 15 to 20 seats across Bihar and have all along been a pillar of strength for late Mr Paswan and instrumental in his political growth. It will be a miracle if they remain consolidated as steadfastly either behind BJP or his son and LJSP president, Mr Chirag Paswan. Will there be a sympathy factor in play to help the Paswan junior? The secret lies in the answer to this question as well.
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