The Jhelum River in the Valley is facing an unprecedented crisis as it experiences record-low water levels, leading to severe shortages in water supply schemes and a drinking water crisis. The water level in the Jhelum River reached its lowest point in the last few decades in September. The primary reason for this decline in water level is a significant drop in precipitation. Additionally, the valley experienced an unrelenting heat wave in September, with the second-highest maximum temperature on record for September since the establishment of the local weather observatory in 1891.
The prolonged dry weather and above-average temperatures lasting for more than seven weeks in Kashmir have had contrasting effects on agricultural production in the region. While the conditions may be beneficial for the paddy crop, they have had adverse consequences for horticulture, particularly apple production. This situation has also resulted in a decline in the water levels of the Jhelum River and other water bodies. Kashmir holds the distinction of being India’s largest apple producer. It’s worth noting that more than 75% of the horticulture sector in Kashmir relies on rainfall, and red delicious apples are a primary variety. The absence of rain, coupled with the higher temperatures, has caused issues with fruit maturation, especially in the case of apples. The fruits have not attained their full size and colour, resulting in a deterioration in quality. Experts have expressed concerns that if the dearth of rainfall persists, it will negatively impact the production of saffron and potatoes in the area.
The dry spell in Kashmir can be attributed to a blend of factors, encompassing both natural climate patterns and the influence of El Niño. The Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation have played pivotal roles in shaping the precipitation patterns in the area, leading to periods of decreased rainfall. Based on data from the India Meteorological Department, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) reveals that roughly 80 per cent of the Kashmir region has been affected by moderate to extreme dryness with a substantial deficit in rainfall. The decreasing water levels have rendered the majority of water supply schemes on the Jhelum almost non-functional, resulting in a severe shortage of water supply in many areas of the valley. Right now, certain areas are grappling with drinking and irrigation water situations, leaving a significant portion of the population without access to safe drinking water. Residents are facing immense difficulties in accessing water for daily use, and they feel that the administration is not addressing their concerns seriously.
While officials acknowledge the rain deficit and the critically low water levels in the Jhelum and its tributaries, they do not seem to view the situation as alarming. However, on the ground, the circumstances demand immediate attention from the relevant authorities. It is currently the summer season with abnormally high temperatures, making it imperative to ensure a consistent water supply. In areas facing acute water scarcity, ample water tankers should be deployed. Given that it is a peak tourist season, it is crucial to guarantee proper water supply to hotels, guest houses, parks, and gardens. The administration has indeed limited control over natural rainfall, but ensuring timely and adequate drinking water and meeting other household water needs is their responsibility. People should also cooperate by using water judiciously. The Jal Shakti and Health departments must regularly check the water quality to ensure that the water supply is safe for drinking and free from contaminants that could lead to waterborne diseases. The Horticulture and Agriculture Departments should guide farmers to properly care for their crops in the present dry spell. The situation necessitates coordinated efforts from every department to alleviate the suffering of both the general population and farmers. Until there is proper rainfall, these departments must remain vigilant and be prepared for any emerging crisis.