NEW DELHI, Apr 28:
A Narendra Modi-led BJP government will offer “the velvet glove” of economic co-development and better bilateral ties to Pakistan, but will also ensure that Islamabad is “aware of the iron fist within it”, opines an Australian think tank, though it avers that India’s foreign policy is likely to maintain its present course after the elections also. The study titled “India’s Foreign Policy under a BJP-led Coalition Government” notes the “indications” that the BJP will lead the next coalition government and examine whether Mr Modi and the BJP will bring RSS inspired nationalism to bear in India’s domestic and foreign policies. “A Narendra Modi government will almost certainly emphasise the economic and commercial aspects of India’s foreign policy. Nevertheless, it will not hesitate to take a hard line if it feels it is being threatened in any way,” says the study authored by Lindsay Hughes, a research analyst with the think tank, Future Directions International (FDI), set up by former Australian Governor General Michael Jeffery. Mr Modi himself has provided very few insights into any future foreign policy directions under a BJP-led government, the 3200 plus word report points out but concludes that India’s foreign policy under a Modi Government will be “a natural continuation” from previous governments, including the current Congress-led UPA coalition.
Mr Modi will more than likely be concerned with domestic issues and events and will treat foreign policy as, firstly, an extension of domestic policy and, secondly, a means to further his domestic agenda. In doing so, he will follow in his predecessors’ footsteps, says Lindsay Hughes in the report. On Indo-Pak relations, the report says, essentially, Mr Modi will offer “the velvet glove” of economic co-development and better bilateral ties to Pakistan, but he will also ensure that Islamabad is “aware of the iron fist within it”. The Pakistani government hopes that a strong leader like Mr Modi might be “better equipped to push through legislation enabling better ties” with Islamabad than did his predecessor, it notes.
It goes on to say: “Despite any reservations he may have, Mr Modi will be hard-pressed to rebut the pressure his colleagues in his government and, especially, the RSS will put on him. “Should there be Pakistani incursions across the border in Kashmir or a terrorist attack like the one in Mumbai, Mr Modi will no doubt take “a hard line” with Pakistan. “There is, however, little doubt that he will try to enhance Indo-Pak ties and simultaneously erode the Pakistan-China relationship, leaving India free to concentrate on its competition with China”.
On India’s ties with China under a Modi-led government, the Lindsay Hughes study has an interesting take with the caveat that any ties with China will “offer India great rewards but simultaneously many pitfalls”.
It credits Modi with deliberately cultivating mutually beneficial relationships in Beijing. Many Chinese organisations see Gujarat as India’s answer to Guangdong province in China, it remarks and says Chinese investment in, and loans to, Gujarat has been “outstanding”. Observing that more than with Pakistan, it is with China that Mr Modi will need to “carefully weigh” his options in furthering relations, the study says China will not provide India with USD 30 billion, let alone USD 300 billion, without receiving a guaranteed quid pro quo with China. “While any trade-off in terms of disputed territory is unthinkable to India, China will definitely seek entry into India’s communications infrastructure, a lessening in its ties with the United States and, indeed, deeper Indian ties with itself. Indeed, it may also require a reduction in India’s growing ties with Japan and a further reduction of its ties with Taiwan”.
Lindsay Hughes offers a homily to China. “China must ensure that, in order not to be seen as giving with the one hand and forcing the diminished stature of New Delhi in the eyes of Indians, it ceases its military incursions across the common border, corrects the trade imbalance, and treats India as an economic and military equal,” he wrote in his report for the Australian think tank.
According to him, China must, furthermore, “accommodate” India’s major power aspirations.
“It cannot block India’s attempts to find a permanent place on the United Nations Security Council, for instance, or block its applications for development loans from agencies such as the Asian Development Bank”.
Turning to India-US relations, the Australian study observes that the prospects for the relationship with America under a Modi Government are “daunting at best”. Nevertheless, it concludes that pragmatism will mark Mr Modi government’s ties with the US.
“While the market forces will probably force the US to pay more attention to India, a Modi Government, for all its anti-US rhetoric, will undoubtedly be pragmatic and seek to develop and enhance its ties with Washington,” the study observed, while holding the view that India has no choice but to reinforce its relationship with its tried and tested partner, Russia It attributes the likely surge in India-Russia ties to “difficult relationship with Pakistan, tense relations with China and a demonstrated lack of interest in India from the US”. (UNI)
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