Harsha Kakar
The recent attack on the Army camp in Uri, resulting in the death of eighteen soldiers, suddenly changed the complexion of national attitude towardsthe Kashmir agitation. Till the attack, Kashmir was at the forefront of all discussions. TV channels across the nation, aired the ongoing agitation during prime time. This was in spite of the fact, that only a few thousands held the state and its millions to ransom. Political parties were seeking ways and means to find answers to the problem. An all-party delegation visited the valley and attempted to interact with a cross section of society. The turning away of the delegation by the Hurriyat was the first blunder which changed national attitude. Even J and K opposition parties including the National Conference (NC), were vociferous in their views that the governments at the state and centre were not doing enough to resolve the crises.
The agitation, which began with the encounter killing of Burhan Wani, grew as it had the tacit support of Pakistan and its stooges, mainly the Hurriyat. The rising casualties across the valley was exploited by them to project Indian high handedness in dealing with the agitators. It enabled them to increase calls for plebiscite under the defunct UN resolution. It also gave them the opportunity to enhance induction of terrorists into the region, as security forces focussed inwards. These terrorists initially exploited the agitation by launching grenades and firing from behind, leading to increased injuries and deaths. However, subsequently they were advised to maintain a low profile as the agitation continued to grow under the tutelage of the stooges. With the induction of additional forces and the slow tiring down of the protesters, Pakistan contemplated that it was now time for phase two. It needed to reignite the cauldron just prior to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) session, thus enabling their Prime Minister to project Kashmir as disputed.
In its first attempt,it planned a terrorist strike against the Poonch Infantry Brigade HQs. The attack failed and all terrorists were neutralized. However, since there was only one casualty, India as expected, cried hoarse and nothing more. This emboldened Pakistan to make the next attempt. This time Uri was the target. Uri was specifically chosen due to its proximity to the border, as also because the camp was merged with the city. Here again, it did not expect major casualties, which unluckily resulteddue to the ensuing fire. The figure of casualties being large, Indian threshold of tolerance was crossed. Indian reaction upset the complete game plan of Pakistan and the resultant fallout rendered its support to the agitation and terrorism as a vulnerability rather than an asset.
As a first fallout, all moderate supporters seeking talks between the two nations have receded into the background. Calls for the moderates being designated as traitors is on the rise. Even the NC with Omar Abdullah as its flag bearer, which had clamoured for talks with Pakistan, suddenly lost its voice and tone and vanished into the sunset. Pushing forward action, post the all-party visit to the valley, started going slow.The government in Delhi which was at the receiving end, got a new lease and could push firmly for subduing the agitation. Its tied hands suddenly became free.
The incident united the nation in clamouring for action against Pakistan. In every forum, there are demands for retaliation. The government rightly supported the call and continued to build public pressure against Pakistan and its supporters, within the country. Simultaneously supporters of the agitation reduced or vanished. International sympathy which Pakistan aimed to acquire on Kashmir in the UNGA, as also by internationalizing Indian action vaporized. The world stood by India and joined in condemning Pakistan for its action. Pakistan’s pleas for international mediation fell on deaf ears. It appears that any unilateral military action taken by India would be silently supported by the international community. Regionally too, India has the support of other SAARC nations to officially scuttle the scheduled summit in Islamabad. This would be a major embarrassment for Pakistan, as also could spell the death knell for a defunct organization, paving the way for a more effective one, ignoring them.
The most important fallout in the Valley has been complete side lining of the ongoing agitation. News on the agitation including injuries and deaths have now been relegated to ignored sections. Broadcasters have almost stopped making any mention of it. This has opened the path for deployment of additional forces to quell the disturbances to bring it under control. Investigations against hawala transactions of the Hurriyat, which initially drew criticism from moderates could now proceed. Similarly, mass arrests of agitators would no longer be headlines. In brief, Kashmir is not prime time news. The state government which was under political pressure from opposition and moderates suddenly finds itself free to act and reassert itself. The opening of job opportunities in police and military have drawn in more aspirants than expected. This has further given the government confidence of needing to deal with only a limited number of anti-national protesters.
The government action against Pakistan would come in due course. It would be a combination of diplomatic, economic and military actions. This would only happen when the government is ready. While the diplomatic and economic actions would be open to public debate, military action may never be made public. Pakistan’s misadventure in Uri has opened avenues which till date were almost closed. Circumstantially, it has provided the government with an ideal opportunity of dealing with the Kashmir agitation and Pakistan, without fear of international criticism and objections. The attack, though costly in terms of lives of our soldiers,is an opportunity which the government should not let pass.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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