Harsha Kakar
Fulfilling his election promise, though half baked, Donald Trump enacted an executive order banning Muslim residents of seven countries from entering the US. While internally, local judicial authorities have blocked the ban, however it is unlikely to remain, as Trump seeks alternate means, including a new modified order, to push it through. The White House also clarified that nationals of two additional countries, Pakistan and Afghanistan, would face extreme vetting prior to being granted entry visas and the nations could be added to the list later. The seven nations whom Trump issued directions against, less Iran, are those presently in the throes of internal conflict. In Libya and Iraq, the US has been the originator of the present turmoil, when it overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq as alsobacked the Arab Spring movement in Libya against Gaddafi. TheIS rose because of this action and now has a firm footing in these countries.However, no national from these countries, has till date been involved in any major terror strike in the US.
The main perpetrators of terror strikes have emerged from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Kuwait and Pakistan, countries yet to be included in the list. Logically also,the affected countries, less Iran, are in no position to object and even if they place a similar reverse ban, the US would be least affected. Sadly, the decision would only impact those seeking to flee conflict zones for a better life or individuals who at one time have fought their own people by being part of the US military, as interpreters or guides. Clearly therefore, the intention has been to tweak his election claims, solely to project to the ill-informed American masses, that he has implemented his promise. Most Americans would never be aware, that these countries pose minimum threat to their peace and security, while those that do, have been conveniently ignored, possibly for economic reasons. In a commentary on the subject, Farid Zakaria had lightly stated, that only those countries are listed, in which a ‘Trump Tower’ does not exist.
The only backing of his action could flow from recent terror incidents in Europe, wherein intelligence inputs indicated that the perpetrators of the crime were trained or motivated IS cadre, some of whom entered posing as refugees. Logically this can never be the case with the US, as boat laden refugees from affected nations cannotarrive on their shores in a similar manner. Entry would continue to be strictly controlled.
Trump’s diktat has opened doors for an anti-Muslim wave in the US and parts of Europe, where xenophobia, subdued for years, has begun rearing its ugly head and increasing incidents of hate crime are being reported. With Americans possessing poor knowledge in differentiating between communities, Sikhs and many other South Asian nationalsare being mistakenly considered as Muslims and targeted. This in due course,would bring in the biggest divide in a nation, which prides itself as being a ‘melting pot of cultures’.In some form the divide has already begun forming and would adversely affect the US, internally.
Conversely, the action would increase the number of fundamentalist supporters across the world. It may only increase home grown terrorism, which has been responsible for maximum casualties within the US, post 9/11, and is the most difficult to monitor. The press in Muslim nations has already begun criticizing the action as an anti-Muslim step, which would move fence sitters into the fundamentalist fold. They could begin seeking American targets in the international environment. It is for this reason that the IS has openly welcomed this move. Further, wherever US forces are involved in battling terror groups, as in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan, anti-US forces would witness a greater influx of supporters and it could also result in increased US casualties.
Another open fallout is the lack of unity within the Muslim world against the singling out of the community. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the mouthpiece of the group of fifty-seven Islamic states has not issued any statement on the subject. Major Islamic nations including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, both US allies, have kept quiet, since they are not on the list. Pakistan which considers itself as a leader of the group, being the only Islamic republic with nuclear weapons and the official host of the next OIC summit in early March, has largely maintained silence, other than some rumblings in their senate. It is individual national interest’s gaining prominence over religious and regional bonding, at its best. This lack of support would only further embolden the US. While Trump did speak to the Saudi leadership, post his issuing the diktat, however, there was no mention of the subject from either nation.
This decision has already divided the western world. Differences have cropped up between the US and its traditional allies including Canada, Britain and Germany. Opposition has been so strong in Britain that the government was compelled to reconsider an address to their parliament by Trump, when he visits them in the future. While the OIC and its members have maintained silence, western nations have criticized this decision and its implementation. Traditional US allies including NATO nations would now recalibrate their support to the US, when it begins engaging the IS, another promise which Donald Trump plans to fulfil at an early date.
Trump has begun his presidency focussing inwards, seeking to isolate the nation from external threats, concentrating only on internal development, however, he is not the first US President to attempt it. George W Bush started his tenure in a similar manner, but 9/11 changed everything and his misjudged involvement in Iraq led to the rise of IS, a group Trump now seeks to destroy. While arrogance and hard headedness would compel Trump to stick to his guns, irrespective of criticism and objections, it would be the country whose credibility would be damaged, internally and externally. The US, in his tenure, is likely to change for the worse and may end up with more enemies than friends.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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