Amit Kushari, IAS Retd
All the recent surveys and opinion polls indicate that in 2014 it will be difficult for both Congress and BJP to come anywhere near the magical figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha even with the help of their allies. In such a situation there could be a strong possibility of the formation of a Third Front Government in Delhi. Leaders of the Samajwadi Party, the Left Front, the Biju Janta Dal, the Trinamul Congress have already started mutual discussions on the possibility of forming a third front. The picture will naturally be clear only after the poll results, but a few logical conjectures could be attempted. The possibility of regional satraps coming together to rule Delhi with all their multifarious divergence of policies is not a very pleasant prospect for the common man of India…..because he will not get a stable, coherent Central Government that can govern effectively. Nevertheless, there is a distinct possibility of such a scenario arising and we have to be prepared to make do with such a Government, most probably for 3 or 4 years. Yes, 3 or 4 years only because such a motley Government cannot remain in power for too long and is sure to crumble down due to its own inconsistencies. Such a combination of regional parties has to get external support from either Congress or BJP to reach the figure of 272, since on their own no combination can reach the figure of 272. Let us now examine the different possibilities.
If a group can get 110 seats and also gets the support of BJP from outside they could form a Government since in all likelihood BJP would get 160-170 seats. These parties need not be BJP allies only. They could be strong regional parties from non-Hindi areas with whom BJP does not have clash of political interests because BJP is very weak in those areas. These regional parties may not help BJP to come to power by becoming their allies, because of the fear of losing Muslim votes. However, they may have no objection to enjoying the fruits of power if BJP gives them external support.
The parties that I am talking about are mentioned below with a number in bracket which indicates their likely number of seats in the new Lok Sabha. Shiv Sena (20) Akali Dal (5) Telugu Desam (5) TRS (10) AIADMK (28) Trinamool Congress (28) Biju Janta Dal (15) AGP (2) Mizo National Front (1). This brings the total to 114 and this number is sufficient to form the Government with external BJP support. Some independents and other splinter groups like JMM and RLD could also join. Even NCP could join, however, Shiv Sena may not like it. If such a third front comes to power who would be the most likely Prime Minister?
I feel Jayalalita could emerge as the consensus Prime Minister as she is fairly popular in the BJP circles. By supporting such a government BJP would take the credit of making a non Hindi speaking Tamil woman the Prime Minister of India. If however, BJP alone can take 180+ seats many of these parties will become allies of BJP and will help Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister.
If such a third front does not come to power then a combination of other parties , with a strength more than 160, may come to power with external support of Congress. These parties are, Samajwadi Party (20) Left Parties (25) RLD(5) JDU (15) BJD (15) DMK (10) NCP (5) BSP (20) YSR Congress (25) TRS(10) RJD(10) NC (1) PDP (2). This brings the total to about 163. If independents and splinter groups join the number may go up to 170. Since Congress is expected to get around 110 seats, with Congress support this combination can easily come to power. If they come to power who will be the Prime Minister?
Since Congress may not like to support Jagan Mohan Reddy or Sharad Pawar or Mulayam Singh, the likely Prime Minister would be Nitish Kumar or Farooq Abdullah or Mayawati. Since there would be a tussle between Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati, the consensus choice could be Farooq Abdullah.
By propping up Dr. Farooq Abdullah Congress will take the credit of making the first Muslim Prime Minister of India, and that too from Kashmir. If , however, NC does not get a single seat, and all the 3 seats of Kashmir are taken by the PDP, then Mufti Mohd. Sayeed would be the consensus choice.
If all these parties agree to become allies of Congress then Congress will form the govt. with Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister. This is , however, unlikely because a group of 170 is unlikely to support a party with 110 seats.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K Feedback to the author at 09748635185 )
Trending Now
E-Paper
Follow our WhatsApp channel