Amit Kushari
After the announcement of general elections day-dreaming seems to have become a favourite pastime of many Indian politicians.This is somewhat natural, because our politicians are always surrounded by sycophants who continuously sing songs of praise thereby inflating the egos of the politicians. The politicians tend to think, and even start believing, that they are the best and tallest leaders of India. A few of them who are popular in their own local areas start wondering, “If I work hard why can’t I be popular in the whole of India, why can’t I become the next Prime Minister?” India is a coalition of more than 10 sub nations, each sub nation having its own distinctive language, culture, literature and music. The biggest of this sub nation is called the Hindi heartland or mainland India which is around 55% of total India. The remaining 45% speak around 10 major languages. All the Hindi speaking states along with Punjab, Jammu, Maharashtra, Gujrat, Goa fall in mainland India (55%) —-and all the other states which are non Hindi speaking fall in the 2nd category( 45 %) . All prime ministers of India, except Devegowda, belong to the55% category. This is also natural because it is much, much easier for a leader from mainland India to get the support of 272 members in the Lok Sabha, compared to a leader from coastal India. Only in an exceptional situation can a non Hindi speaking man like Deve Gowda become Prime Minister. At present also, among the seven day- dreamers , who want to become Prime Minister, 5 belong to mainland India (Rahul, Modi, Kejriwal, Maya, Mulayam) and 2 belong to coastal India (Jaya and Mamata ). One of the seven will definitely become Prime Minister but the chances of Jaya and Mamata are very dim indeed compared to the first five. This, however does not stop Jaya and Mamata to dream about becoming P.M. They are very powerful leaders in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and may bag 30 Lok Sabha seats each. However, they have no popularity in the rest of India and hence it maybe very difficult for them to stitch together 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. Mamata tried to enter the national scene by holding a rally in Delhi along with Anna Hazare but it was a flop show with hardly 2,000 people turning up to hear her.Anna Hazare also realised his mistake and ended his alliance with Mamata. Her day dreaming came to an abrupt end. I am sure Jayalalitha would also meet the same fate if she ventures out of Tamilnadu which is her invincible fort and citadel.
I think one of the first five candidates will eventually become the P.M. Among these five probables Kejriwal has the least chance as he is not expected to get more than five seats in the Lok Sabha. His advantage is that he speaks moderately well in Hindi and has some support in the National Capital region…..getting disproportionately high attention in our Dehli based national media. Nevertheless he is a great day dreamer. He believes that he may get 100 seats in the Lok Sabha although in reality he may not get even 5. He is a brave man who had gone to Gujrat inside the den of the orange lion—-to challenge the lion and question his achievements. He tried to find so many faults in Gujrat, that it seemed that he had gone to inspect the dirty drains of Gujrat! He could have surely got a diploma in drain inspection ! Not to be cowed down, he plans to challenge Modi in Varanasi. Any sane man would not do it — because the Security deposit could be lost. Varanasi is the cradle of Hinduism and is what Mecca is to Muslims and Jerusalem is to Christains. Modi is known to be ‘Hindu hriday samrat’, (ruler of Hindu hearts) and Varanasi is the appropiate seat for him. For Kejriwal it would be suicidal to challenge Modi in Varanasi….but Kejriwal doesn’t realise it, as he is a great day dreamer. Modi is not Sheila Dixit, who could be humbled in New Delhi.
In today’s interview through the internet Rahul Gandhi says that Congress would get 200 seats—calling the opinion polls a joke! All the independent polls are suggesting that Congress would get 85 – 95 seats. Rahul Gandhi is also a great daydreamer, surrounded by sycophants. It is true that opinion polls go quite wrong sometimes. Many opinion polls in 2004 predicted NDA getting 300 seats, but in reality it got only 188!
Maya and Mulayam also dream to be Prime minister although they are not likely to get 12/13 seats each. Nitish Kumar also dreams of being PM although he is not likely to get more than 6/7 seats. All this day dreaming will come to an end on 16th of May when they will all wake up to realities.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner J&K. Feedback to the author at 09748635185)
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