During the summer of 2012, and the beginning of current year, Pakistani troops along the LoC have been indulging in sporadic firing on our forward posts in violation of ceasefire agreement between the two countries signed in 2003. In particular, Pakistani violations of the agreement have taken place in Krishna Ghati area in Poonch sector and a few more places along LoC. By and large, Pakistan’s selection of strategic points for breach of ceasefire agreement and firing have been made keeping in view the feasibility of infiltration of jihadis into India side. These sites give them some tactical advantage to facilitate infiltration. In that sense, it is a localized affair and not a rule. In other words, prior to Pakistan embarking on the strategy of giving fire cover for infiltration into our side, cease fire agreement between the two sides was holding.
There are two reasons for Pakistani Army to escalate tension on the LoC. One is that the terrorist groups in Kashmir are faced with depleting manpower because Kashmiri youth have understood how Pakistan is exploiting them for selfish aggrandizement. So the ISI wants Pakistani jihadis to infiltrate into our part of Kashmir. These jihadis are churned out in the rabidly fanatical religious seminaries in Pakistan. If they are not diverted to Kashmir willy-nilly, they are likely to join the rank and file of home-grown Theo-fascists and thus reinforce the TTP militia. By an irony of fate, once godfathered by Pakistan Army and ISI, the TTP is now poised against its masters and sponsors in the hope of realizing the dream of large Islamic Caliphate about which they have been robustly indoctrinated in the seminaries.
The second reason for pushing the jihadis across the LoC is that Pakistan Army and ISI want to convey a message to the civilian regime in Islamabad that Kashmir chapter remains its exclusive domain and the talks going on between the two countries for peaceful resolution of outstanding issues including Kashmir will not be allowed to force a change in the long established policy of the Army in regard to India in general and Kashmir issue in particular. For some time in recent past, Pakistan Army has been feeling that an understanding of sorts is growing between the two Governments. It has the compulsion of sending a message to the civilian Government in Islamabad that it is not prepared to compromise its long standing policy on India in general but Kashmir dispute in particular. In other words, it wants to tell Islamabad regime that its talks with India have to be within the parameters of Army’s frame. Intermittent and unprovoked firing on the LoC is the instrument through which Pakistan Army wants to alert the more adventurous political class at the helm of affairs in Islamabad.
Apart from the two factors of Army and civilian Government, there has appeared a third stakeholder in Pakistan, a by-product of Pakistan Army and ISI perception of Indian-oriented policy. It is the sponsoring of Theo-fascist militias under different names and varying nomenclatures. They adopted new skin after some of them were banned either by Islamabad regime or by the US or the UN. The civilian as well as military circles have given them the name of “non-state actors”, a nomenclature which, on the face of it, would absolve the Government of the responsibility of containing them.
But the Army, in its planning, has almost formalized their status so much so that the organizations proudly call themselves as the vanguard of Pakistani offensive arm along her eastern border with India. Indoctrinated in aggressive Theo-fascist ideology to the extent of committing suicide most willingly, these jihadis vow to struggle and strive for their one-point programme of “crush India”. Therefore Pakistani troops along the LoC have been given the task of facilitating infiltration of the jihadis who aim at carrying forward anti-India subversion once they plant their foot on Indian soil. Hence we find recurrent violation of cease fire by Pakistani troops along the LoC.
Another aspect of escalation of tension along the LoC is growing political and economic instability in Pakistan. The Army would have intervened and thrown out the civilian Government but for a couple of reasons it could not. One is that Pakistani public has somehow lost its traditional trust in the Army first by Army accepting to be a partner of the US-NATO military action against terrorism. The second is the impact of dramatic liquidation of Osama bins Laden and its aftermath. Pakistani people are increasingly feeling that Pakistan Army is not able to ensure the security of the country and its borders because of its dubious policy towards India, Afghanistan, USA and the Islamic world. Thirdly Theo-fascist organizations, once the brain-children of ISI, have become so powerful as to dictate terms to the Government as well as the Army. Anti-American and anti-Indian hate fever has made these organizations blind to the fact that Pakistan has the compulsions of maintaining her profile as a responsible member of the Untied Nations and needs to observe compendium of international laws and prove to be a reasonable and genuine State. It has to be noted that Pakistan is increasingly dependent on financial support in the shape of loans and aid from big international financial organizations that are controlled by the rich western countries. Such is the power wielded by these Theo-fascist organizations, that the brutal and barbaric incident of 8th January at Mankot in Mendhar sector of Jammu happened soon after the visit to Muzaffarabad of Hafiz Saeed, the chief of banned al-Dawa wal Irshad, the master-mind behind Mumbai attacks of 2008.
The barbaric act of Pakistani commandos, actually the activists of her Theo-fascist organizations, is one more example in which we find the so-called frontline of Pakistan Army meaning the jihadi groups throwing a challenge to the regime in Islamabad. Let us, therefore, wait and watch how far the two go on battling each other. The stern warning of the Army chief in this context has come in right earnest. India will mean business in case Islamabad fails to restrain its State or non-state actors from indulging in provocative activities along LoC.
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