Anil Anand
Electoral battles in India have taken a different dimension ever since the Narendra Modi phenomenon took the centre stage just ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. From there on every election, from Lok Sabha down to block levels, has become an interesting case study throwing some interesting facets some unknown earlier. The recently held election to Haryana and Maharashtra assemblies is no exception. It has certain takeaways and definitely lessons both for the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress.
The lone exception this time, since 2014 general elections, was that the BJP after reaching the pinnacle of its electoral glory thereby ruling better part of the country, had a setback of sorts. Although it will form the government in both the states but with a greater reliance on its allies and in the process ceding some space. This situation has arisen because the saffron party has not been able to achieve its over-ambitious goals which its leaders, read Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party chief, Amit Shah, had set.
There overconfidence caved-in in front of the ground realities that included over or underestimating the sentiments of the people and ignoring their local needs. The diversionary shield which the two leaders had painstakingly developed and that worked effectively election after election somehow did not show the desired results. Ostensibly aware that setting developmental agenda is different from fulfilling it actually on ground, the duo created an effective wall of hyper-nationalism and Hindutava to cover the failures on the development front. It worked wonders in the past as they succeeded emotionally embedding the people, by and large, in this twin agenda in which Pakistan factor acted as a strong catalyst. There is no doubt the emotions were high on account of this agenda but it did not get converted into votes to the extent the BJP strategists must have expected. And there lay the change which has raised certain questions.
Did the BJP falter in its firm belief of offering a fate accompli to people in terms of setting an electoral agenda? Is the Modi magic beginning to slide thereby necessitating a relook into his electoral strategies heavily backed by a centralised system?
From the opposition’s point of view the most important question arising out of this scenario was if it really worked hard to check BJP juggernaut or the outcome was a fluke and the opposition needed to put its act together?
The rise of Modi phenomenon since 2014 was the story of hope and expectations. Whatever he has been saying people have believed him and in the process accepted the agenda set by him no matter whether it pertained to redressal of their local issues or not. A time comes in the life of a government or a ruling party when a crucial balance has to be struck between promises made-hopes raised, and the actual delivery on ground. All this while there is no space for losing sight of the local issues and problems that is what resulted in cracks in BJP’s fortunes in Haryana and Maharashtra.
There has been a dichotomous imbalance between hopes raised and actual delivery which in all probability an over-confident BJP leadership ignored. Instead of rectification and coming to terms with themselves in terms of results achieved on the ground, they seemed to have relied heavily on continue offering a fate accompli without expected results.
The Modi-Shah duo went all out in playing the hyper-nationalism card. Their entire campaign was centred-around partial abrogation of Article 370 and portrayed as some kind of a macho act and yet another agenda setting in the form of Pakistan occupied Kashmir being the next target of the government.
Article 370 and PoK issues have created an emotional appeal as these were linked with nationalism while targeting Pakistan. But these issues could not attract attention of people in Haryana and Maharashtra as they were beset with their own issues and problems of survival.
Does that suggest that people of the two states are less patriotic? No way. And if at any given time the BJP strategists try to give this turn to explain their not-too-impressive performance in these elections, they would do it at their own peril.
There are three clear takeaways from these elections more from the BJP perspective but not irrelevant to even Congress-led opposition for their future lest they also follow the BJP strategy.
First and foremost the BJP needs to realise that the national issues including hyper nationalism cannot be used to ignore people’s problems and local concerns. Top on the saffron party’s agenda were hyper-nationalism and Pakistan with its role in Kashmir and how partial abrogation of Article 370 would rid Kashmir of all problems. But it did not cut ice with the people who were fighting with unemployment, farmers’ woes including suicides in Maharashtra and worrisome scenario emerging out of economic slowdown.
The moral of the electoral story is that the bread and butter issues cannot be ignored unless the nation is passing through an emergency situation particularly on account of external aggression and related factors. And more importantly, be it the national or local elections and more so on the latter account, the promises should be proportionate to the capacity to deliver.
Shifting or setting new agenda on monthly or quarterly basis without showing tangible results on ground could add to the problems for any ruling party and more so of the current times. Mere periodic declarations or on important dates and days to claim total success of a project within a ” record time” while the ground realities point to a different direction, cannot convince people/voters at all times.
The second takeaway from this round of elections is that caste equations is unfortunately is a reality and cannot be ignored be it the national or state level elections. Modi’s experimentation in 2014/2019 Lok Sabha elections and in some assembly and civic polls held in the interregnum with using all pervading nationalism as means to cover caste politics did deliver but it has by and large failed in state elections. The latest example is what happened in Haryana and reflections were there to be felt in Maharashtra.
The third significant takeaway and which augurs well for democratic polity is the rejection of defectors by the people. A new factor rather a vice was introduced by the BJP managers of making the sitting MPs/MLAs of other parties to resign and field them as BJP candidates. It worked for the BJP to improve its position in Rajya Sabha and also in some Lok Sabha and assembly bi-elections. However, this time it was totally rejected by the people as a result BJP lost a Lok Sabha and couple of assembly bi-elections that included in Gujarat.
The take away for Congress or the opposition is that, do not shy away from the situations and do not wilt under pressure of past defeats. They must bear in mind that the political situation can take a turn any moment and that after delivering a judgement in one election people keep the other one close to their hearts and the final delivery could be weighed by any factor.
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