Brij Bhardwaj
How strong is democracy in India? This question is often raised by many international agencies and human rights organisations. Some have even downgraded India ranking as a vibrant democracy. But if one were to watch how seriously Indians take their right to vote and elect a new party to govern them at State level as well as at national level they will have to think again. India not only votes to elect a national Government every five years but it also elects State Governments regularly and elections for State Assemblies take place practically every two years.
As such, the country remains in election mood at regular intervals. Every state poll requires months of preparation. Surveys are held to judge the mood of people, for selection of candidates and to identify issues which will influence the voters. India will be holding elections to five State Assemblies starting in 2021 and ending in 2022.To start with polls will be held in U.P, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttrakhand. Poll for U.P is considered most important as it sends as many as eighty members to Lok Sabha and many believe that to rule Centre a political party has to do well in U.P.
In last seventy years six Prime Ministers belonged to U.P. Present Prime Minister Narendra Modi belong to Gujarat but got elected to Lok Sabha from U.P. As such it is no surprise that elections in U.P get so much attention. The rise of BJP, which has emerged as a dominant political force and largest political party in India started when it took up the task of building Ram temple in Ayodhya in U.P.Temple is now being built where once stood Babri Masjid which was demolished by supporters of temple movement who believed that Masjid was built by demolishing a temple which stood at birth place of Hindu god.
Political scenario in U.P is complex as not only two national parties are in the race for power, but two regional players also have a large base and have been voted to power in the past. While regional parties, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have caste base, BJP heads a combination of different castes among Hindus. Congress was a dominant player at one time but its base has been shrinking with every poll. With the exception of BJP all parties woo Muslims
After BJP, Samajwadi Party has the largest base and network in U.P as shown in Panchayat poll and election to local bodies. There are also many regional players who have made alliances with major players at different times. Most important is RLD which has a strong base among Jats in Western U.P and can make a difference in election of thirty to forty assembly seats. There is also an attempt by a Muslim group led by Owaisi from Hyderabad to establish a party which will fight for rights of Muslim minority.
Priyanka Gandhi who entered election scene in U.P in last poll is also making an attempt to revive fortunes of Congress party. She has managed to grab headlines in Lakhinpur where five agitating farmers were mowed down by son of a BJP Minister in Union Government. She created a stir when she was arrested and had been camping in the area seeking justice for farmers and punishment of guilty. Her meeting in Varanasi attracted large crowds and she is wooing voters by declaring that Congress will give forty per cent tickets to women in the coming elections. Her problem is lack of organisation on ground. On the other hand, BJP is playing development card, its tough stance on law and order, formidable election machinery and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Mondi.
In next few months battle for U.P will start taking shape. At present it looks that there will be no unity in opposition ranks and each party will be fighting separately. This will certainly give an advantage to BJP which won not only a majority last time but managed to demolish parties like SP, BSP, Congress and the RLD. Will it be a repeat or BJP will win with a smaller majority. Answers to these questions will emerge in days to come . Will opposition parties damage BJP or cut into each others’ support.
As for the four other States, polls will make an impact but marginally only. In Punjab it will be Congress vs. Aam Aadmi party with Akali Dal as a side player. In Uttrakhand ,Goa and Manipur it will be BJP vs. Congress. Haryana, another State getting ready for polls one may find no single party getting a majority. Next few months will witness lot of excitement on political front and show the world that Indian democracy is vibrant and people hold right to vote and elect a Government as important right which they exercise every five years.
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